Friday 17 December 2021

AND DAYS OF AULD LANG SYNE

A simple but crude indicator of how the shares which meet the criteria to be included in any average share price index are faring is simply to multiply the index by the earnings yield of that index. Doing that today for indices representing non-mining shares (supposedly resources companies are considered to be dancing to a different tune) reveals that the average industrial/financial company is reporting record earnings. That is, using the JSE as a gauge, nothing bad has happened to the nation’s wealth-creating capacities. In fact the opposite is happening. Prices of high-end luxury goods and homes corroborate this. However, the queues of people at the post offices awaiting their very meagre state-handout is the other side of this very weird coin. This observation ought to be keeping members of the ruling elite worried and awake at night but no such luck. Well actually they are wide awake late into the night consuming those ridiculously over-priced liquors that appear in bottle store catalogues every festive season. Cynics assure us that this year’s 60 year old tipple is merely last year’s unsold 50 year old, rebottled! It certainly looks identical! The exact status and location of our previous president, Jacob Zuma is unclear. At least one government agency wants him back in prison as they believe his medical parole has expired. Aside from the rather unfriendly and unseasonable timing of this development, the only people gaining any cheer will be legal eagles flocking to gain a share of the fees that the arguing for and against this idea will undoubtedly be racking up. In the meantime, our sitting president (Cyril the Frogboiler) has unfortunately tested positive for the current virus doing the rounds and VP David Mabuza is in the hot seat. So far he has been low profile and cautious despite chairing the most recent meeting of National Coronavirus Command Council. This body is known often to surge down tangential paths in pursuit of redder herrings but so far all is quiet. All we got on the recent public holiday, named ironically “Day of Reconciliation”, was a very non conciliatory speech praising murderous terrorists long gone and hopefully soon forgotten. There is a very long list of special things that the Webb space-based telescope will be directed to look at after it takes up position next week about one and a half million kms above the earth. The one thing it won’t do however is take any photos in the visible light part of the spectrum. All the very special detectors work in the infra-red and so presumably we’ll be fed reconstructed false colour images. It’s a red-shift thing! Reportedly the Webb has cost US$ 11bn and is 10 times over budget. The US taxpayer had paid for the largest share by far. The world will certainly miss these generous and inquisitive Americans when one day they run out of money! Has anyone thought to invite those protesting the plan to conduct a seismic mapping program in the ocean off the Wild Coast, to nominate a small team to go aboard the seismic survey ship towing the large arrays of equipment. It is rather boring though, as it steams steadily along long and predetermined tracks for the duration of the survey. Days of tedium will provide ample opportunity for them to learn that this exercise has been carried out along the whole South African coastline since about 1975 without any reports of mass extinctions (or even disturbance) occurring in the marine wildlife. But do warn the nominees that near fatal sea sickness is likely and the principal distraction will be retrieving the equipment for repair, following the inevitable shark bites to the towed arrays. Oh, and there is also the fun of watching the GPS spot trudge across the screen. This will be the final Tidemarks of the year and I want to thank all the readers, fans and critics for providing just enough feedback to keep me from realising that these jottings are really quite silly and pointless. Mind you I must note that several times a year, a point raised in TM shows up elsewhere. But that’s just coincidence I suppose. So please have a Merry and Happy Christmas and a Safe and Healthy New Year. James Greener Friday 17th December 2021.

Friday 10 December 2021

POP GOES THE WEASEL

The nation’s Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter 2021 was released by Stats SA this week and good news was hard to find. We have yet to recover from the “Big Hit” in the second quarter of 2020 which erased almost 20% from the nation’s economic scorecard. That was when we all managed to scare ourselves that the end was nigh and the best we could do was to sit and wait for a virus to obliterate civilisation. While that has thankfully turned out to be spectacularly wrong, many politicians and leaders have been reluctant to give up the powers they awarded themselves at the start of the crisis and are still lurking with edicts and decrees which are hampering citizens in desperate need of a swift recovery. It is telling and important to repeat that the former group are characterised by not having missed a pay day during the close on 2 years this incident has lasted, while the latter almost universally have. This craze for opening Pop-Up stores arrived in SA a few years ago, but until now did not make much of an impact here on the eastern shores. Mind you, Tidemarks is a reluctant and disappointing shopper at the best of times so this observation could be faulty. Suddenly, however, Pop-Ups are now ubiquitous but seem to be confined to the medical services. Which is rather odd, because one associates health care with starched white uniforms, gleaming floors and sterile procedures and not scruffy gazebos in a garage forecourt or a mall parking lot. Komatipoort is a delightfully busy and vibrant African town which perhaps rivals the notorious Wuhan Wet Market for being a rich source of pathogens. Nonetheless, under a flapping canvas shelter, near the very busy entrance to the SPAR supermarket, a vaccination medical team were jabbing away as if it was a darts match final. More numerous than vaccination centres are the businesses offering to test for ones Covid-19 infection status. Presumably this is because there is a financial incentive. The going rate for a test seems to be in the region of R850 a patient, and cash and cards are gratefully accepted. Limited research suggests that this rate is much the same all over the globe – interesting. The one operating from a small tent pitched right in the main footfall path of the popular Restaurant Row in Umghlanga Rocks, promises same-day results for a PCR test. This is indeed speedy and somewhat at odds with the methodology developed by Prof Kary Mullis the inventor of the procedure. But with establishments like this at every street corner, bowling clubhouse and taxi rank, it’s little wonder that reports of nearly ten thousand new infections are being reported every day. Also intriguing is the confidence with which new cases are ascribed as being due to the latest named “variant”. Perhaps it would be helpful if this news were not shared so lavishly when there are so many amateur virologists keen to proffer conflicting prognoses which get the aforementioned leaders unduly excited. Once upon a time, markets used to anticipate the official release of all kinds of numbers deemed important for interpreting the past and divining the future. Parameters such as the repo rate , the trade balance , gross domestic product, even the sales of cement and the inflation rate all had their teams of observers and shills prepared to deliver whatever story best suited their book. Or to be truthful, their client’s book. This may not still be the case as Tidemarks no longer sits in a dealing room and is deliriously ignorant about the real world out there. However, it does appear that things are not like they used to be and the accuracy, credibility and reliability of many official statistics, from both the public and the private sector have undoubtedly deteriorated. The term “audited financial statements” probably no longer has the cachet it once used to. Very few reports of public spending are trustworthy. The owners and operators of the Formula 1 jamboree must be delighted that the championship has come down to the last race. What a bonus for sponsors and advertisers and a case study for sceptics of the power of free markets. The break in the steady flow of Tidemarks was due to me going to the Kruger National Park for 2 weeks. Thanks for the numerous enquiries from concerned well-wishers. James Greener Friday 10th December 2021

Friday 12 November 2021

THE POWER CUT ATE MY BITCOIN

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered his maiden medium-term budget policy statement yesterday and stuck pretty much to the party songbook that everything will be alright provided we all got vaccinated and trusted the state program of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. He did admit to a woodpile resident in the form of a fourth Covid-19 wave possibly turning up to cause further difficulties for National Treasury already coping with an underperforming, debt-laden economy. Sadly, our latest Finance minister is another who wears hats indoors. Superficial research suggest that this habit correlates with mostly poor performance by the person standing underneath the decoration. The excitement and even hysteria about crypto currencies continues to rise with the best known member of the clan (Bitcoin) breaching R1m in price. But definitely not in value. Tidemarks cheerfully admits to not understanding these instruments at all and his concern about how to establish a value for them was deepened after watching a video of a crypto currency mine at work. It consisted of a ton of computers linked and packed together inside a rusty goods container plonked down in the backwoods of some chilly northern hemisphere country. It was consuming lots of electrical power which was being converted mainly to heat and a few meagre arithmetic answers to unfathomably difficult sums. The only moving parts were impressive industrial sized fans trying to keep the whole shebang cool. Presumably the miner is occasionally rewarded for keeping this gizmo running with a unit of crypto currency being credited to his “wallet”. The sole possibly interesting thing is that if this credit is indeed income that can be used to purchase (or to swap for) goods and services then the tax man knows nothing about it. Yet. The COPPERS have decided to go to Egypt and United Arab Emirates for their next two meetings. These venues will probably be warmer than Glasgow and will better support their theses that Armageddon (or catastrophic sea level rise and other bad stuff) is nigh. They also confirm that eco warriors are immune to irony and devoid of common sense as these countries are great benefactors from the production and sale of oil But almost certainly the number of 5-star hotel rooms available in those venues will be closer to their needs than Clydeside has been. Too many even well meaning and knowledgeable people are now on board this bandwagon, and no one now dares to cry wolf and imperil the very large cash flows on which whole political dynasties, academic careers, huge industries and communities depend. Quietly our National Soccer team is taking successful baby steps toward getting invited to attend next year’s World Cup. There’s a long way to go but they have the second highest number of points in the African World Cup Qualifier series. It has long been a disappointment that a nation of this size didn’t do better. Mind you their celebration routine after scoring a goal would make them shoo-in victor if ever that were made into a competition. The gentlemen’s agreement not to criticise rugby referees and their decisions is crumbling fast. All over the internet (if not yet the big sports TV networks) one stumbles across respected talking heads pointing things out on endless replays. It will end to everyone’s satisfaction(?) only when the whistle man and his two flag carrying flunkies are totally replaced by technology. There are now intelligent balls that know where they are and how they got there, and individual player locations on the field are also known in real time with amazing accuracy. Imagine a loud synthesised whistle blast and a coloured icon projected on to the field which shows the position and nature of the infringement. The whole playing surface could go yellow or red and a projected circle would identify the serious miscreant and follow him all the way on his embarrassing journey to the sin bin! Perhaps it will soon be only deep inside the scrum where those present will ever know what’s really happening! But generally, all front row players deserve some privacy and respect as they go about their work. James Greener Friday 12th November 2021 Tidemarks will be suspended for the next 3 weeks as I am going to the KNP.

Friday 5 November 2021

VOTER’S REMORSE

Standing in the queue at the polling station provides a fine opportunity for marvelling at how cumbersome this kernel of the democratic process still is. The counting of the votes part seems to be particularly inefficient but in the past it was not. That these days there are fewer bank tellers experienced in counting currency notes volunteering to duty on election night might have something to do with it. Having ballot papers the size of a bed sheet also doesn’t help. At my polling station, the lass wielding the ruggedised iPad device was the bottleneck in the process. After scanning one’s ID card or book with the wireless device, it yielded a number that she clearly announced, and which was then handwritten on the back of the ballot paper. Does that not create a direct link between voter and vote? It was however comforting to see the gentleman who pushes the ballot papers into the ballot box slot with a plastic ruler is still on duty. And really that flatpack polling station furniture suite is pure genius. The provincial secretary of the ANC, a party that seems to have lost considerable support country wide, is reported as saying “something has gone horribly wrong in KZN”. That is perhaps the sole truth of the week. There are astonishing video clips of municipal employees clutching papers and their lunchtime sandwiches, being physically bundled out of municipal buildings. There is no time to waste when it comes to getting aboard the gravy train. The national penchant for ceremonies was indulged last night when a closing ceremony for the election gave President Frogboiler an opportunity to drone on about democratic right, civic duty and a quote from Rubi who told Cyril that she had faith in the leaders of South Africa. But perhaps the 2021 local authority election has shown that South Africans are utterly disillusioned with eternal political promises which will not and cannot ever be fulfilled while the public sector squats like an evil giant bull frog on top of the economy, hoovering up the biggest and fattest flies attracted by the corpse beneath. As expected, the flow of hot carbon dioxide-loaded air at COP 26 has been epic. Everyone including the Prince of Wales has a Plan for how the nearly 8bn of us on this planet ought to behave. Remarkably there is also a Plan for little old us down here on the southern tip. The European Union, Germany, France, the UK and the US have partnered to support South Africa’s climate action goals. They are keen to help us with something called a “Just Energy Transition” which means moving from our heavy reliance on coal to cleaner and renewable energy sources. The glossy wish list announcement opens with 15 paragraphs starting with words like “recognising”, “welcoming” and “embracing” and ends with 5 action paragraphs beginning with “establish” and “explore” All very grown up and official looking. But wait, there’s money: USD 8.5bn which we can all be sure will find no better custodian than the South African Government. Already the local politicians – who obviously knew this was coming -- have thrown their hats into the ring on behalf of the communities and special interests they support. Brace yourself for the blazer badges reading Net Zero Carbon to replace last year’s natty 4IR logo. (4th Industrial Revolution- remember that?). Sorry to harp on though, but it’s the gaps in the physics and chemistry that need attention. It’s not yet feasible to replace the energy available in a 5l jerry can of petrol with something equally portable. Whenever the Australian cricket team appear on the TV in the bar at the bowling club, unrestrained booing still breaks out. The relatively lenient punishment handed out to the players in their test team that went onto a field with sandpaper in their underwear obviously determined to cheat, rankles deeply. So it was very satisfying to see Australia beaten (even if it was only by England) at the T20 world cup tournament. They only just scraped a win against SA. What’s that? The Proteas meet England tomorrow? Pah! And now three back-to-back F1 Grands Prix. That’s a tough ask but look who is asking. The money bags! James Greener Friday Guy Fawkes Day 2021

Friday 29 October 2021

NO KNEES NEEDED

Tidemarks’ favourite hobby horse is that many of our ills in this nation have their origin in the state’s program of distributing various grants to the needy in lieu of lifting the many barriers they have imposed on enabling the needy to get gainful employment. So proud are they of this redistribution system that the department of Social Development this week claimed that it was on a par with the world’s best. This dreadful boast is on a par with the reason offered by an unemployed young woman standing in the ruined litter-strewn wasteland of what used to be Krugersdorp city centre as to why she will use her first ever vote to support the ruling party. Her cross will be “In honour of Nelson Mandela.” Was this really Madiba’s vision? Mind you, pretty much any result is possible. It is reported that the huge number of candidates offering themselves to the electorate has overwhelmed not only the IEC organising the show, but the candidates themselves. Allegedly one candidate appears on a ward ballot paper representing 3 different parties. No conflicts there then? The number of injunctions on our behaviour these days requires a fully charged smart phone loaded with the latest software to keep track. What levels of lockdown and load shedding am I under at this moment? Can I buy liquor without a mask on Sunday? Is my vaccination passport up to date? Can I drive to the Kruger? Is the polony safe? Where is my polling station on Monday? Whew! But elsewhere on the globe they have similar problems. In about half a dozen years we will be able to rent a private space station named Orbital Reef from Jeff Bezos (the Amazon man). It will be a “mixed-use” facility “suitable for commerce, research and tourism”. Apparently, Sandton parents are already asking about booking it for a so-called Matric Rage venue. Ballito, you know, is so last year. What we should be proud of, however, is that this nation has eliminated discrimination against women when it comes to employment opportunities. The deputy national police commissioner is Lieutenant-General Bonang Christine Mgwenya and she strengthened her credentials for high office this week by being arrested for fraud, corruption and theft involving a R191-million tender. Atta girl. Anyone standing for election and the opportunity to become a tax-eater should be required to pass a test that ensures that they understand long division and the concept of the resulting two-part units. Like “rands per tax-payer” and “kWH per kg”. The former is tripping up the brains that run the USA as they find out that even if they were to confiscate all the transferable wealth of say the thousand richest people in the land of the (sort of) free, it converts into a rather modest once off payment to each of the rest of the population and critically, it can happen only once. Understanding the amazingly inconvenient truths lurking in a study of the second unit will not feature at all at the COP 26 Jamboree about to take place in Glasgow. A few years ago Durban hosted this gathering of the lethally hypocritical and they mostly were not very nice people. Their meetings are become Councils of War about how to rid the world of one of its most important gaseous compounds – carbon-dioxide. The fact that it can’t and won’t happen is no deterrent to the angry and tearful delegates who will themselves generate tons of this colourless and odourless gas. Travelling, shouting, sluicing and browsing on the taxpayer’s dollar in comfy and salubrious surroundings is the real objective. Will there be a weigh-out of the of single use plastic waste items the eco-warriors will leave for the Glaswegians? It’s a hypocritical circus run by clowns who have managed to convince everyone else that their cause is so just and important that they need not wear the surgical masks that they want the rest of us to do. The reappearance of the attention-getting stunt of gluing ones more prominent body parts to roads and other silly places is amusing while you are not the one rushing a sick child to hospital. Oh, for the days when “Taking the Knee” would be redlined by your teacher as ungrammatical and anatomically nonsense. James Greener Friday 29th October 2021

Friday 22 October 2021

VERY LOW DENSITY GAS

Suddenly most places around the world are experiencing shortages of various goods, some of which, like fuel, are rather important. Spectacularly, ships and trucks are backing up outside ports and warehouses all over the world. There are numerous reasons for this on offer, which suggests that the actual main reason has yet to be identified. Tidemarks’ view is that it will in due course be traced back to interfering bureaucrats and politicians making their own judgements about supply and demand and not letting the market do the job it is there for. Which is minutely and ceaselessly to examine every aspect of the so-called supply chains and ensure that breaks are speedily repaired. Allowing someone behind a desk in a ministry to decide how many cans of beans are required in Boston is a very poor idea. Especially when that official is trying to encapsulate his own views of things like climate change and respiratory virus infections into the decision. In the meantime, despite all the doom and confusion, South Africans are selling stuff to foreigners at unprecedented rates averaging more than R30bn’s net exports a month over the past quarter. A year ago, imports outweighed exports. This statistic is part of the reason why President Frog Boiler and his chums can afford to look so relaxed about money and rumble on about Basic Income grants and so forth. Over at National Treasury, taxes are starting to flow in just like the good old days and the spending spigots are open wide. Whew. Just in time to impress the electorate and line up some fried chicken and T shirts as thank you presents. Now while some good news is starting to seep under the door, it is disheartening for all of us to be warned and even assured that covid-19 infections are certain to increase again as Christmas approaches. The latest to make authoritative and knowledgeable noises about the start of the next so-called “wave” is the Premier of Gauteng. He has obviously already sounded alarm bells in certain areas. One liquor retailer has warned that any reimposition of sales bans will be lethal themselves for the economy and for their businesses. This contrast between signs of returning to normal (undoubtedly a long and hazardous journey) and a seemingly never ending and even escalating levels of state interference and control is alarming. Our “State of Disaster” continues, albeit currently at a low level, but our leaders seem loath to lift it entirely as they undoubtedly enjoy having such powerful strings to pull. There is obviously substantial attraction to becoming an elected official in South Africa. Even at the lowest municipal level. There are 60 000 candidates and 325 parties standing in the local authority elections scheduled to be held on Monday 1st November It is very obvious that something is wrong and that this is not proof of a healthy functioning democracy. The barrier to entry must be raised. Simply rejecting candidates who don’t live in the ward they hope to represent would be a good start. In fact there was time when municipal elections restricted voting to actual ratepayers and political parties were not involved. This seems a very good idea. There is nothing vaguely political in a sewage blockage. Oh. Wait! The discovery of substantial volumes of Helium gas in the Free State is a great delight for me who was once one of South Africa’s few practicing Reservoir Engineers, as it highlights a fact which few outside the industry know. Helium comes out of the ground. Just like natural gas, with which it is often associated. Fortunately, the recently announced discovery is in already very permeable rock formations and so the dreaded “fracking” red herring need not be raised. It is rather alarming that the size of the reserve is being quoted in units of “party balloons”. Cubic meters is more conventional. Not only are the referees in the United Rugby Championship under scrutiny for suspected bias but they are clearly colour blind. The number of matches in this tournament where the two teams take the field in very similar coloured kit is silly. There have been matches where if the South African team had resorted to their usual home strip the game would have been far easier to follow. Formula 1 also treat the casual fan with contempt by allowing cars with identical livery, bar a yellow strip invisible from the back. Harrumph. James Greener Friday 22nd October 2021

Friday 8 October 2021

DCCC

This is the 800th edition of Tidemarks. This weekly personal amusement began in April 2004 as a supposedly sophisticated and omniscient end of the week summary of events in the financial markets, written by one of the nation’s most endangered species – an independent stockbroker. It has since deteriorated into a carefully crafted collection of caustic criticism and contempt heaped on pretty much anyone. But mostly on the world’s politicians, bureaucrats and other tax-eating lowlifes who so richly deserve it. Its subscription price faithfully reflects its value to the roughly 1000 readers who assure me that it improves their Friday experience. It certainly gets me through to opening time down at the Bowling Club Bar and encourages me to hunt ceaselessly for stories and examples of life as it is lived on the southern tip. And now with local elections looming the candidates are resorting to every silly idea in the book to garner votes. There hasn’t been one of those gala toilet opening ceremonies recently but there is a picture of a mayor standing in front of a lavish banner at the side of a long dusty empty gravel road stretching straight as an arrow towards a distant horizon. The caption claims that His Worship is opening the road. Well hooray. Alarmingly some of the ANC top brass including President Frog Boiler are promoting various rather technical solutions for the country’s electricity shortage. None of the gents involved have much of a clue about the topic but nice clever sounding words are being traded in the media. Load Shedding, aka power cuts, have restarted – a rather inopportune and embarrassing time for the ruling party. Dollar based commodity price indices are setting six-year highs and a nation like ours should at least be benefitting from exports of stuff dug out of the ground or grown on top of it. Maybe it’s why the runt still has a bit of value. Sadly, the government has already scared away significant amounts of human resource (smart well qualified people) capable of managing these processes. There is a squabble amongst various of our government departments about whether the very new “Vaccination Passport” is ready for release, but the fact is that it is already out there. It is fiendishly difficult to control the internet hey chaps? Two aspects are interesting. The first is that the document expires in early January. The second is that it carries a rather special looking QR code that is proudly described as “not meant to be read by anyone”. This does rather fan the flames of the conspiracy theorists who worry that the whole passport thing is the precursor to “deep state” control and “digital currency”. But the rest of us are now merely excited by the idea that we can presumably visit our overseas families and vice versa. Our national history of long being known as the bad boy of the world certainly still shows up in our suspicion that sports rules and officials always have the South African team in mind when looking for infringements. The latest niggle for me was the Rugby Championship referees not using just the jersey colour to identify a side. The use of the country name is unsettling. Now it seems that the four SA franchises now playing in the United Rugby Championship in Europe, are battling to come to terms with referees’ interpretations, especially in the second half, if the SA side is leading. Lots is being said and written about the ability of the man with the whistle to be overzealous and prevent the match from being an enjoyable spectacle. But what does Tidemarks know? After all he is puzzled by the rule in Formula 1 that penalises competitors for changing an engine in order to go faster! Which is the whole point of the race. There will be no Tidemarks next week as I am going birding for lifers in the high grasslands of Mpumalanga. A venerable and prestigious annual event attended by some of the best twitchers and drinkers in the land. James Greener Friday 8th October 2021 800 in Roman numerals or Durban Country Club Committee

Friday 1 October 2021

JUST VOTE THEM ALL OUT

One of the most eye-catching chart movements at the moment is the weakening of the Hong Kong all share index. Presumably investors are selling in response to mainland China discarding the Mr Nice Guy disguise. Supposedly the complete absorption of the enclave by the parent was always going to happen despite all the platitudes uttered in the last decade. Political legs are being stretched everywhere with the most benign looking regimes unexpectedly turning into jack-booted thugs. Australia anyone? Our government has stepped into the crocodile-infested waters of philology and insulted many folks’ history, pride and citizenship. It widely thought that none of the tongues in common use on our land today were widespread in these parts say 350 years ago, so to decree some to be “indigenous” and others not, is rather foolish. As always, Tidemarks would like to leave the decisions to the market and the data that Afrikaans (currently being targeted by our leaders for euthanasia or at least downgrading) is spoken by 14% of the population seems like a big enough cohort to deserve a place in the sun.. The share of English is only 11%. Zulu and Xhosa are the top 2. Please note that the tax collector’s forms are available in English only. So don’t go too far down this path Mr Government! The analysis of the latest Voters Roll reveals that 26m of us are registered to vote in the forthcoming municipal elections. Voters under the age of 20 comprise only half a percent of the roll, with women outnumbering men throughout the age spectrum and in total making up 55% of the list. The first stat shows that the youth are utterly disillusioned with what we oldies are promising for their future and that there is no need to spend time and money lowering the voting age. The gender disparity proportion tends to increase with age, perhaps indicating that the fairer sex do believe as they get older that they can make a difference. The campaigning for this election has been dire with the ruling party whimpering that they know they haven’t performed in the last 2 dozen years but just to give them another chance. Please? We all suspect this is merely another way of asking for extended visiting hours at the public money trough. Tidemarks is aware that his thoughts on climate change don’t conform with the popular view. Reader’s reactions have been as harsh as to cancel their subscription. (say what?) It is indeed very unlikely that a population of 8 billion self-aware and focussed consumers, known ironically as homo sapiens, don’t have an impact on this planet that we occupy. But where and crucially, exactly how this works is not at all certain. The dreaded “green house” effect is particularly puzzling. The worst enemy of the planet allegedly is the carbon dioxide produced specifically by man’s insatiable demand for a good life. It turns out that consensus for the mechanisms at work in this supposed relationship are still elusive. Most of the outputs in this endeavour are spewed from computer models using approximated chemical and physical processes. Among the actual measurements available, are some from experiments conducted at the back end of domestic farm animals. Even that is probably tricky to carry out! The research waters in this field are tremendously muddied by the lethal symbiosis between researchers in need of grants and suppliers of that funding in both the private and public sectors. Strings are bound to be attached. The commercial interests are delighted to build and sell whatever heat-destroying gizmo a client wants. The politicians garner supporters by boarding whatever bandwagons are rolling through their constituency. Recently it was stated that investments (really?) of about $280-billion will be needed to cope with the effects of climate change in 35 cities in South Africa, Kenya and Ethiopia by 2050. New research (wowee!) shows that Africa is the fastest urbanising continent and also the hardest hit by global warming. Good luck with that, guys. Or are the stories of economies flattened by Covid, just fake news?. The All Blacks performance last weekend with uncharacteristically many handling errors, seemed also rather fake. Hmm? James Greener Friday 1st October 2021

Friday 24 September 2021

FLYING IN THE FACE

Over the past 18 months the average price of an equity share on most of the world’s stock exchanges has out performed the price of an ounce of gold – that barbarous relic that still refuses to disappear even in the face of cryptocurrencies. The latter of course being the latest toy of the bright young things. There are so many questions that are prompted by these facts. None of which can be satisfactorily answered by Tidemarks, himself a relic, although I hope not barbarous. Why for example would the recovery of share prices be coincidental with the era of the pandemic? Indubitably huge swathes of legacy industries have been decimated by the economic collapse caused by the lockdown treatment prescribed by politicians. Then there’s the huge recovery in commodity prices that in particular has provided a lifeline income improvement for the South African government. The sole obvious evaluation parameter of a cryptocurrency is its potential scarcity. This, with exception of land, is probably unique among investable assets but expressing its price in terms of another currency seems recursive and self-denying. Further the promises that it would be beyond the reach of taxes and thieves seem not to be true. The national airline and value destroying institution known as SAA has got a few planes back in the air flying out of Joburg mostly to African destinations and Cape Town. It has never ever been satisfactorily explained by the government why they feel it is so vital to have a so-called “flag-carrier”. Without a business case that withstands scrutiny it is very likely that taxpayers will be supporting the whole sorry mess again very soon. The “sale to private interests” announced with fanfare and excitement a few months ago seems to have been a smoke and mirrors exercise stretching the meaning of private interests to its limits. Here is possibly the ultimate in methods for selecting applicants for employment! The City of Tshwane will recruit 5 095 expanded public works program workers starting in November, using an electronic lottery system – or electronic random draw. The mayor claims that the system will promote transparency in its hiring process. Yes, well, maybe but do Pretoria’s ratepayers get competent officials to deliver services? Or does that no longer matter? This story is a sad commentary on the failure of the education system to equip people with useful and, dare one say, vital skills. All that is needed to enter the lottery is the usual copy of ID and proof of residence – the ubiquitous duo of documents that forms the bedrock of any dealings with bureaucracy. No need to show you can read or write or do sums. That’s what phones are for. “They supported the SABC’s proposal by suggesting an “entirely new public information levy on all non-Sassa (SA Social Security Agency) grant-receiving adults who are able to access public content services of the SABC” be pursued with subscription TV services such as MultiChoice being roped in to help collect licence fees.” This quote from The Sowetan newspaper’s report on hearings held by the department of digital communications on the SABC Bill is revealing. Firstly it divides the population into two neat and clear groups based whether or not citizens receive a monthly grant from the state. And secondly it shows that “roping in” help is an acceptable way to run a government entity. No, its not! It’s another weekend packed with sports to watch on TV with sadly the boks vs All Blacks test perhaps not being as compelling as it should be. Then there are the four “provincial” franchises playing their opening matches in the overseas United Rugby Championship tournament. . And the seemingly never ending IPL cricket circus plays on. Sochi is definitely not the prettiest of Formula 1 street circuits and neither is the spectacle improved by the ill-tempered and callous behaviour of some of the so-called stars of the industry. The event of the weekend however will be the Ryder Cup golf match taking place on another of those windswept American lakeside wannabe links courses. Crowds of up to 45 000 have become a feature of the tournament with their asinine shouts of “go in the hole”! Even the players discard the usual standards of etiquette and protocol. Spectacle supreme. James Greener Heritage Day 2021

Friday 17 September 2021

PAPERS PLEASE

A gentle amble through the charts reveals that the sort of unanimity of most markets and prices were showing by going silently stronger has ceased. An edginess has appeared and sellers seem to be accepting softer prices for their wares than they were doing a few weeks ago. The talking head fraternity is doubtless earning its crust by offering reasons for this and maybe the dawning realisation that the US President Joe Biden is not as sharp these days as he used to be is making folk nervous. There are plenty of opinions about who actually is running the country with the most powerful military in the western world and that is not a good thing. Down here we are cheerfully in total disagreement about who is holding any reins at all, and every day reveals the existence of yet another advisory committee that presumably exists to tell our elected leaders the facts of life. The level of general and specialist knowledge in areas critical for governance is woeful. Instead of fussing about lowering the voting age we ought to be raising the eligible age for people seeking election to any office. Setting this bar at 40 should ensure that at least some candidates will have had the experience of running a business and meeting a payroll. Skills which ought better to equip them for telling other people what to do. Perhaps they would realise that the sight of a dozen well fed and dressed folk at the ceremonial opening of a toilet or a water tank is not, as they say in the PR industry, “great optics”! Many times in the past 18 months Tidemarks has lamented the apparent absence of consistent and credible “facts” around the current respiratory infection pandemic. The release of costly vaccines has only muddied the waters substantially. And incidentally has also made the maths of calculating the various infection and recovery metrics more difficult and misleading. Crucially, the lack of a swift, reliable and, most of all, accurate test of positive infection is another serious barrier to sensible debate. Particularly among those of us who are not one of the worlds few and true epidemiologists. A perfect example of how clueless we all are, appeared in President Cyril’s address to the nation, when he announced tiny incremental changes to the lockdown criteria. Weirdest of the lot was extending the sales hours for booze by a day. There was also some fiddling with the numbers of people permitted to attend gatherings. Oddly, a rapidly growing behaviour amongst some who have been vaccinated and are therefore less prone to future infection, has been antagonism towards the “unvaccinated” Does this imply a doubt that their treatment will be effective? It is worth noting that even “been vaccinated” is not entirely clear, as the drug manufacturers are now hinting that only lifelong treatment will provide sufficient protection. Nevertheless, Governments are already rewarding the “vaccinated” with so called “vaccine passports” that will allow holders sole or at least preferential access to state services. Would the unvaccinated be permitted to pay tax do you think? Interestingly, some private enterprises are imposing similar access control measures for their employees, clients, and customers. This seems to be an odd time to be hampering their own efforts to regain economic normalcy. It is not easy to determine whether the ‘bokke management’s new habit of firing off videos to the sport’s governing bodies after every test will cause more good than harm. We probably already have gained a reputation for being whining sore losers. Tidemarks never played rugby (unless the under 13B at Prep counts) and despite hours of patient instruction from my fellow topers while currently watching a game, still has a poor grasp of the rules. Especially those concerning what happens inside a scrum and the forward pass rule which appears to ignore geometry and misuses inertia. It would be interesting to know if the videos show any incidents involving the ‘bok side getting away with an infringement. It would also be comforting if the referees referred to the teams by jersey colour and not nationality. It might just add to an air of neutrality. James Greener (vaccinated) Friday 17th September 2021

Friday 10 September 2021

YOUR PHONE SAYS “NO”

Despite the tax income in July being a meagre R80bn, our National Treasury wonks must be well pleased with a rolling 12-month income of R1.4 trillion. This is a record, and the new minister of finance must have been tempted to order lemonade and sticky buns all round. But perhaps he called for just a half-holiday instead so that no outsider watching would notice the celebration. However, his colleagues in cabinet must have had spies planted because the allocation to the spenders in government was also a record at 1.87trillion. Which resulted in a 12-month deficit of R470billion. Which means that 34% of the money our government spends, is borrowed. This is not good and it will take a lot more than the boomlet we are enjoying in commodity prices to smooth this out. The mining companies know a thing or two about saving for a rainy day and hiding profits in plain sight. The faux lament that “my whole life is on my phone” is no longer a subtle boast of just how tech savvy one is. It’s becoming real. News is that our leaders are about to introduce the so-called Vaccination Certificate Passports which will reside on our smart phones. Tidemarks notes that the combination of the poorly understood pandemic, rapidly growing technological capabilities and throngs of largely clueless politicians and their advisors are turning out to be a toxic mix from which a large and nasty ogre of control is emerging. Governments are behaving badly and are mostly delighted with these developments. But for the rest of us they should ring a huge alarm bell. One quick scan of your phone will provide all the information needed for untrustworthy bureaucrats to deny you access to pretty much anything from a library book to critical care in a hospital. Already Health minister Joe Phaahla has been telling National Council of Provinces that the government was considering banning non-vaccinated people from public amenities. No one could have ever imagined that a state president would end up getting health advice from his equally useless financial adviser. And yet that is what Jacob Zuma has done – although as yet he does not appear to be taking up golf like his mentor Schabir Schaik did after gaining a Medical Parole and being released from prison. Naturally there are many questions that scholars of the law and curious simple taxpayers would like to have answered. Firstly, what exactly ails our jovial dancing ex-president? Advocate Dali Mpofu (SC) who represents JZ has told Judge Piet Koen that Zuma’s medical team and that of the State were “finding each other” and “getting close to each other”. This is picturesque language but since the state’s doctors have not yet been able “to get close to Zuma” facts remain scarce. The key point, in case you’ve not been listening, is that Zuma has a very long-standing court appearance in his diary concerning the usual problem of money flowing in unusual directions. He has little desire to be there. This week the details of a minibus taxi crash that injured its 22 passengers (all school children) emerged. The vehicle was overloaded, unlicensed, and unroadworthy, and the driver did not have a licence! In a textbook example of the pressing need for competency tests for public officials before they are allowed to say something, the Transport MEC for the area reportedly warned that it is “up to users to check (that) the vehicle they hire is safe, competent and licensed”. No mention of this being the job of the authorities who are woefully failing in their traffic control duties. Ironically this week another glaringly badly managed, queue-bound, expensive failure of traffic control appeared. The inordinately lengthy and inefficient process of renewing a driver’s licence may soon be managed(?) by a booking system for an appointment requiring another R250 fee payment. So, one queues and pays to book a place in another queue to pay? No really! Currie Cup final and the next round of the Rugby Championship (have you noted that the All Blacks will be playing the curtain raiser to the bok game?) US Open Tennis finals and the third in a series of back-to-back F1 GPs. Oh, and Premier League resumes and Bafana Bafana are winning. I really must repair the captain’s armchair. James Greener Friday 10th September 2021

Friday 3 September 2021

COME ON KIDS. YOU CAN DO THIS

Around the middle of August, the country’s share price (the rand exchange rate versus other currencies) began to strengthen. It is now about 5% better than that low point. Everyone will have a theory why this should be, but any suggesting that it reveals an optimism that our leaders know what they are doing is hard to accept. As you read this, the Constitutional Court could be handing down judgement on whether the Municipal elections, scheduled to be held next month, should go ahead or not. The ruling party seems to have failed to get its ducks in a row over this one and are frantically quacking for a postponement. Their unpreparedness is obviously related to their failure to pay staff salaries. Perspicacious commentators are wondering if the era of buying votes with a T-shirt and a bucket of (extremely colonial) fried chicken may be ending. The hospitality and travel industries are probably close contenders for being the sector most damaged by the official reactions and responses to the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic 18 months ago. However, it is education where the disruptions will be felt the longest and deepest. The industry has been forced into the near total abandonment of the simple model of what used to be “talk and chalk”. Resource rich communities quickly adopted internet-based teaching methods, but these too have proved problematical because very few people have ever been trained in these skills. Further, as the options and outcomes changed, the poor souls at the front of the classrooms were expected to cope with the utter horrors of so-called “blended” classes where some learners were still at home and others were back at their obscenely over-sanitised desks. Even worse is the fact that the cast members of this tragedy – and for schools one needs also to factor in the parents – are able, day to day, to select which stage to appear on. Syllabi and planning were early victims of this shambles and undoubtedly the amount of knowledge transfer possible in the sometime savagely curtailed semesters has been minimal. But right at the forefront for fixing this debacle is the KZN Department of Education’s 12-point plan. Its idea is to enlist motivational speakers (!) who will “work on the “pupil’s psyches”. Apparently, this will more adequately prepare them for final exams than drills of times tables, exercises in grammar and writing and poring over diagrams of how the body works. Terrifying. BTW the motivational gurus will reach their huge audiences by radio. Really? And now it seems that the once respected previous Minister of Health Dr Zweli Mkhize has long been infected by the terrible illness so common amongst politicians. That is the inability to distinguish between his own money and government money. It is obviously so easy to do. You pop out to spend a couple of million on stuff for the office and before you know it you find you have bought private household essentials like luxury cars, handbags, and holidays. There is a related nonsense emerging from the assertion that government have sold 51% of SAA, the national airline, to a private consortium. Only it seems that the consortium’s money is not entirely private, and the smoke and mirrors are back at work obscuring exactly who owns what. The simple puzzling question in all of this is just why anyone thinks the nation or indeed anyone needs an airline that is going to start life with a record of appalling management and a debt at lease the size of the herd of our president’s prize buffalos. For folk who can’t see the point of soccer, the sports channels have become a punishment. The next round of matches in the very long sequence of international fixtures that will ultimately determine who gets to attend the World Cup in Qatar next year, has begun. The list of hopeful countries is like a geography quiz answer sheet, and one does marvel that they all apparently have both the manpower and real estate to host 22 people kicking a ball on a flat grassy patch. Like the Faroe Islands, Andorra and San Marino ? James Greener Friday 3rd September 2021

Friday 27 August 2021

TV CRIME SOLVED

Brand new Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s first piece of legislation bears the ominous name of the Second Special Appropriation Bill. And it needs to be akin to magic. He must conjure up almost R33bn to pay for Covid-19 relief grants, soldiers’ deployment and support for the government’s all-risk insurer, SASRIA. Anecdotal evidence about claims on the last-named mendicant, arising from the looting frenzy, suggest this will not be quickly resolved. Just two months ago Enoch’s predecessor, Chef Tito, launched a similar cry for help. Soon thereafter he quit. He knew this larger call was inevitable. The sole bright and entertaining news concerns the looted TV sets which the manufacturer can disable remotely, just as soon as the screen is connected to the internet. Theft-proof TVs? Now there’s a thing. The staff who work at the offices of the ANC political party have not received salaries for a couple of months. These workers are now on strike but unfortunately for their sacrifices few outside of their bubble will notice or care. Reportedly the ANC still owes the taxman the PAYE deductions. Private sector employers are painfully aware that the tax man takes a very dim view of this practice! The great attraction of landing a job on these fringes of the least productive sector of the economy, is the possibility of discovering a cozy niche overlooking a strong and steady cashflow into which one can on occasion dip a sticky finger. Despite this and other ploys from the text book on state capture, the dire unemployment situation is affecting both rank and file members as well as senior ruling party cadres. The most prominent of these is no less than previous President Zuma, who this week released a glossy begging letter complete with bank account number for anyone who feels like helping out the old fellow. How humiliating for a man who once rubbed shoulders with some of the sleaziest conmen ever to have left India. Presumably the Guptas no longer take calls from Jacob. Our deputy president David Mabuza is a disappointing fellow. He seems to think that he has been the victim of poisoning attempts on several occasions. And presumably as a result, doesn’t trust anyone very much. For example, he chooses to go to Russia for medical treatment whenever he feels a bit off colour. He was no sooner back from his latest check up there when one out of the six generating units at the Medupi power station exploded. Its not known if he was scheduled to go and take a look at this shiny new piece of Eskom kit but it is reported that he feels that this failure rate represents a “fair” outcome. Really? So every sixth bridge, plane and high-rise must be treated with caution? Wow. The folk over at Stats SA have been having a great deal of fun playing with the nation’s GDP numbers. This week they published a whole new way of classifying and counting the figures. This revealed an economy about 11% larger than we thought, but still behind Nigeria and Egypt. In Stats SA’s own words there has been little time to inspect “under the hood” to see what the changes mean to our understanding, but both Education and Health have been reclassified as Personal Services instead of Government. This has the effect of vastly reducing the apparent share that the state has in the economy. Hmmmm? Curiously the growth rates -- the period to period change in the overall GDP number -- are little affected by the reclassifications but do remember all the sums are done with a data set that is entirely restated in the new bases. It has been decided that the half dozen tests outstanding in the northern hemisphere-baiting named Rugby Championship will all be played in Queensland. This is the Australian state that has just announced the creation of a concentration quarantine camp in the outback for unhealthy people suspected of being capable of passing on the Delta Variant of the Corona Virus. Can these events be a mere coincidence? Few predicted that the clash between people and their politicians would reach its climax in the calendar of sports fixtures. James Greener Friday 27th August 2021

Friday 20 August 2021

GOODNESS. I DIDN’T REALISE THAT!

The US dollar is almost at a one year high against the Euro. Does this signify a (grudging) admiration for the developments that President Biden has enabled to unfold in Afghanistan? For what seems like a declining number of us, schooled in post-World War II western mores and scientific tradition, this is alarming. The world appears to prefer ignorance and superstition to enlightenment and rationality. Sloganeering and cruelty have become the tools of those who wield influence and power over the lives of anyone still naïve enough to believe that treating everyone with dignity and respect is worthwhile. President Cyril’s recent appearance at the Zondo Commission of enquiry into State Capture raised a few basic questions, in addition to the obvious ones like “What did Cyril know and when did he know it?” His display of utter astonishment when he was told about what was happening all around him when he held posts as high as the Vice Presidency was worthy of an acting award. Maybe, like most of us, he was at the outset puzzled about what exactly state capture is. But it is ludicrously simple and so widespread that it really ought to be granted a place in the summer Olympics. It is merely the act of stealing state assets and exercising executive powers for personal gain. Astonished feigned ignorance is a major tool in Frogboiler’s kit for running this country. It is hard to believe that a man running an enterprise for 60 million souls and a turnover in the trillions. i.e. South Africa, doesn’t make use of the current equivalent of a “cuttings service”. This would supply regular stacks of highlighted stories, articles, and scurrilous rumour in digestible form to even a presidential iPad. Maybe he would gain an inkling about what is happening in the country, and what people other than his sycophants, think of him. The numerous state departments with the word “Intelligence” in their titles seem to be useless. Presumably they were the ones who instructed Cyril that last month’s riots were an “insurrection. But according to minister of Defence and Military Veterans Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, the events were a “counter-revolution”. Her reward for putting him right was that this week he promoted her to Speaker of the House. The theory and methods of saving for retirement are very well known and documented. It’s why there are actuaries. This week the Department of Social Development behaved as if they had discovered the Higgs Boson’s little brother and announced an utterly impossible new defined benefit scheme for the whole country. This 30% school pass mark thing is going to destroy us all! One of the less discussed events of the looting and arson session last month was the torching of an inconspicuous warehouse in Cornubia, a development on Durban’s northern fringes. Almost immediately people began to complain of a terrible smell and even some respiratory problems caused by a plume of noxious fumes drifting from the warehouse which in fact burned for several days. In addition, it turned out that the fire containment efforts had filled the site’s drains with effluent which, presumably in defiance of rafts of regulation, flowed into the estuary at Umghlanga Rocks and soon a complete extinction of all marine life in the lagoon and shoreline was reported. The beaches in the area remain closed. This is an environmental catastrophe of the highest order and only the efforts of a team of investigative journalists have managed to keep the story alive. The unanswered questions continue to grow, especially as this week finally saw the release of what was in that warehouse. While few countries will have a legislature capable of fully understanding the dangers resulting from a chemical spill, and toxic chemicals are a murky secretive business, it might prove useful to put a few people including perhaps complicit local officials behind bars to jog their memories. It’s too late for the fish and birds. Last weekend’s victory by South African Brad Binder in a rain affected Moto GP was epic. Presumably growing up in in Potchefstroom he learned to ride in those Highveld torrential thunderstorms. James Greener Friday 20th August 2021

Friday 13 August 2021

TEE-OFF TIME

What this nation needs to do is to find a wayto remove from all elected officials and their attending bureaucrats the power to do almost everything. In particular they must be banned from renaming things and shopping for cars unless paid for by themselves. As one clever fellow has already commented; he is sure that Winnie Mandela saw her legacy as being far grander than to be attached to a rather disappointing dorpie in the Free State. A particularly annoying development in the last few years is the renaming of municipalities and districts after deceased worthies. Losing any indication of just whereabouts the place being discussed may be in this large and beautiful land has been an unnecessary cost and inefficiency burden. While certainly achieving its primary objective of irritating old white people, it is doubtful if it has raised the profile or historical significance of the honourees in any way. The world is funny like that. The most recognisable t-shirt decoration on the planet is the face of a long dead deeply unpleasant Marxist revolutionary who didn’t really make anyone’s existence much happier. It feels as if we are being treated to a rerun of the Schabir Shaik comedy show. This was when Jacob Zuma’s spectacularly incompetent alleged financial advisor was released from jail after being convicted of fraud in 2005. It was claimed that he was terminally ill, and it would show great compassion if he could be released to let him run his life’s short course in the bosom of his family. It turned out that the consulting medics were referring to a golf course and the diagnosed deadly disease has responded to this treatment magnificently. Zuma has obviously taken advice from his old chum and has also now obtained a medical opinion which has released him from his prison cell where he has about a dozen months of his sentence for contempt of court still to run. A puzzling aspect of our previous president’s circumstances is that despite having a large extended family of wives and offspring, all news about his condition is jealously and secretly handled by The Jacob Zuma Foundation (an educational organisation). It is therefore unknown if he has yet purchased a set of golf clubs. Mere days after some sort of ludicrous handing-over milestone by the contractors to Eskom (the owner and operator) of the near decade-overdue Medupi power station, a big section of it blew up! Fortunately, no one was injured – maybe because there were no qualified staff around at the time? But the news has been delivered with sorrowful downcast head shaking and the equally ludicrous claim that it won’t have much effect on the nation’s power supplies. Sadly, given the incredible cost overrun of this project this is not a case of saying “Well, you get what you paid for.” For some reason information and data flows from Eskom appear to the layman at least, somewhat opaque and disingenuous. Fortunately, there are numerous highly experienced energy generation specialists with intimate knowledge of this State-Owned Enterprise keen to offer their views. But the fact is that this “Boom!” will have been noticed by everyone needing a stable electricity supply for their business investment location and they may as we speak be dropping S Africa from their list. There is something reassuringly nostalgic and endearingly establishment about the name of Jolidee Matongo, the new mayor of Johannesburg. Not everyone will know or remember the phrase “Jolly d” delivered in a haughty and plummy tone to express satisfaction and encouragement. He is also not short of advice of what to do once established in the top floor corner office. Mine would include booting every mendicant and distant relative back into the street. One particularly obvious lesson learned from the recent rugby test series is that stadia with pitches prepared for soccer are useless for the oval ball game. Even the most shameless footballer’s dive to feign injury does not have the same impact as 1800 kg and 32 studded boots thrusting away on the green sward. Doubtless this is well known amongst groundsmen the world over, but the sports are run by accountants who like the idea of multiple uses for the assets. James Greener Friday 13th August 2021 (International Left Hander’s Day)

Friday 6 August 2021

SHOSHOLOZA!

President Cyril’s one way communication with us is getting tedious and a tad annoying. Perhaps it is because he doesn’t feel comfortable trying to work in English where he might correctly assume that questioners are trying to trip him up. Explaining the negative reaction by the rand to last night’s cabinet tinkering would not be easy for him. Similarly, discussing why he didn’t fire Bheki “The Hat” whose police force utterly failed to protect life and property in last month’s non-insurrection. is a topic he prefers to avoid. His most significant shuffle is brought about by the retirement of Finance Minister Tito Mboweni who is replaced by Enoch Godongwana. There has been some frantic overnight scrambling through the cuttings files to try and work out Enoch’s likely stance on matters financial. The latest exchequer figures show that Tito might have just been starting to get to grips with government spending. It would be a pity to squander that momentum. In the meantime, let’s hope someone plants out little Aloe Ferox, now that it is no longer called upon to make a half-yearly trip to parliament to illustrate Tito’s budgetary dilemma. There must have been singing and dancing in the corridors at National Treasury last weekend when they published that revenue for June 2021 was a record setting R205 billion. This is the largest amount in tax ever collected in a month and reportedly is due to bumper revenue for mining companies. Not everyone dislikes a weak currency. In the Expenditure Section however the celebrations will have been muted so as not to offend those who might be suffering from cutbacks in state handouts. Because that is what might just be happening. Year on year growth of the government’s 12 month spending pattern is now below 6%pa. This is low and frankly astonishing for a government whose most visible policy is to play Robin Hood for an ever-growing population of poor and unemployed. The Post Office is rapidly warming to the idea of enforcing of regulations which reserves for them the transport and delivery of any parcel weighing less than 1 kg. Hot food deliveries are exempt if only to prevent piles of rotting pizza building up at the sorting offices over the weekends. The slow disintegration of the state-owned postal service has spawned a huge and highly competitive private courier industry that is essential to its very many customers. The impact on employment and commercial efficiency of this task reservation will be devastating but nevertheless the politicians and bureaucrats have managed to convince themselves that it will be best for everyone in the long run. Right. Let’s in future post to all civil servants their salaries in cash. Mind you some pay packages for that lot could exceed 1 kg! What has happened to our sport? Are we all so absorbed in keeping body and soul together in the face of the consequences of our government’s handling of the Covid threat that we have no resources left to have fun and chase dreams? Many must have been discouraged and demoralised by the waves of unemployment followed by debilitating and incomprehensible mask and movement regulations. But other countries at the Olympics suffered too. That our male competitors and team sports fared particularly badly perhaps hints that state-encouraged racial selection criteria may have had an effect. There was however, one utterly amazing moment captured on video that should raise a tear in the eye of any still proud South African. It records the moment when the South African squad in Tokyo put on an ad hoc celebration for Gold Medallist Tatjana Schoenmaker. Politicians, watch this and crawl back under your stones. https://youtu.be/I4zMpGQswwM Copy and paste into your browser. Sniff. Hopefully there will be no tears on our side after the final and crucial test against the B & I Lions in Cape Town tomorrow. It feels as if this has been a particularly ill-tempered on and off the field encounter but reports from the tourists are gratifyingly positive about their time down here on the southern tip. James Greener Friday 6th August 2021

Friday 30 July 2021

NUMBER CRUNCHERS

One of the smouldering fires which could burst into serious flames as far as world markets are concerned is the shortage of chips of the electronic kind. Ever shrinking in size but gaining in complexity, these tiny scraps of electronic wizardry are so ubiquitous in our consumer lifestyle of things, that assembly lines of bigger items like cars, washing machines, space ships and of course our personal life support systems – mobile phones are being impacted There are of course numerous outfits who closely monitor the supply of these elements that most of us could not find on the periodic table, but if you want a carefree life don’t read their reports. Seemingly there is such a word as digitalisation. It is clumsy and ugly. Using digital computers to store, process and share data has been around for more than half a century and one suspects that users of this relatively new word are rather hazy about what exactly it means. Politicians and others who don’t really know how most of the world works, frequently use the term as a process that can be blamed for their own failures and inefficiencies. The articles about the cyber attacks which reportedly are still impacting the operations of the nation’s ports are heavy with the term “digitalisation”. The word has offspring such as 4IR (Fourth Industrial Revolution) and 5G (fifth generation). The former has been declared “a good thing” while the latter has even been identified as being somehow responsible for the respiratory infection that has caused such a massive disruption to our way of life. Oh, and global warming too! The banks have been counting the costs of the looting spree that the population entertained themselves with a week or two ago. Not only were almost 300 branches trashed but also about 1200 ATMs containing an estimated R20m in cash were broken into, sometimes even totally removed from the wall into which they had been built. The banks insist that ATMs are programmed to soak their stock of bank notes in a green dye if they sense the beginnings of a theft attempt. Further, they warn everyone that any bank note with a trace of the dye is valueless and that no one should accept such notes for any transaction. Oddly though, little has been reported about how much dyed currency they have retrieved. Perhaps a chemist has found a way to clean them. If only stealing and breaking stuff was an Olympic sport, our medal count in Tokyo would be far higher. Presumably every nation indulges in a spell of introspection and review once their athletes return home, to determine why they did not do as well as forecast. Without any proper data to back the claim it still appears that government support plays a big role in a nation’s ranking on the medal table. Clearly the moral boost for a country able to greet even just one gold medallist on their return is worth the allocation of public money. What is less clear, however, is whether the so-called national costumes prepared for the athletes taking part in the opening ceremony provide as much pride and motivation as the designers claim. Our team’s attempt to rock the “veldskoen look” fell rather short, perhaps. Nevertheless, for us couch potatoes this 4-yearly update of ways the fit and healthy spend their time is always an eye-opener. There are for example 7 ways each for women and men to earn a medal for crossing the finish line going backwards! The sailing events will see 10 medal ceremonies, which are, in these days of covid, rather joyless spectacles. There is noticeable growth in the number of events in which an individual puts on a display of self-absorbed narcissism but titanic athleticism in front of a jury who award points. Wheeled sports are also growing in popularity with a 13-year old on a skateboard being the youngest medal winner ever. And who knew what someone on a bicycle can achieve? F1 returns this weekend but it feels as if something is going awry in The Paddock. Personal invective and touchy-feely sentiments are not useful in this supremely technical sport. At least no one has yet suggested replacing the bottles of bubbly with a nice bouquet of lovely flowers. James Greener Friday 30th July 2021.

Friday 23 July 2021

BEDDING DOWN

The South African currency (ZAR) has lost a few percent in the last couple of weeks as the novelty of having an ex-president in jail gets discounted as just something most self-respecting Marxist regimes need to get used to. The Reserve Bank monetary policy think tank that met this week saw nothing to worry about and left interest rates unchanged. It’s bizarre to jot down the events of the week and juxtapose the normal and usual against the abnormal and astonishingly unexpected. The government’s vacillation and ineffective original response to the widespread looting and lawlessness in two provinces was quite a surprise as many citizens had assumed that someone – in particular the police—would protect us. The swift and effective appearance of what has been called the civilian militia was gratifying for most but perhaps embarrassing for the state. Amongst its earliest reactions was a spat between President Cyril and his Defence Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula about how to describe the incidents. The president used the word insurrection. The Minister said this was incorrect because there were no identifiable instigators. But now there are. But probably paying close attention was SASRIA. Which is a government owned re-insurer type of business founded in the early seventies when the riots of that time were feared to be too large for the local insurers to cope. Currently it sits on assets worth around R9 billion which is significantly less than the estimated costs of the damage. A shortfall looms. The latest score in this one is unknown. But the list of friends who are leaving the country before more bills and deaths mount up, gets even larger Another thing we can’t influence, is the outcome about a succession dispute that has broken out among members of the Zulu royal family since King Zwelithini died a few months ago. With all the elements of a Shakespearean tragedy, costumed in leopard skin, this could run for ages before the final curtain. The principal prize is the real estate of Zululand, which is owned by a hastily conceived and executed Trust virtually hours before the 1994 election. The sole trustee is the late king. The current winners are going to be lawyers. Non- Zulus respectfully request to be absolved from picking up any costs for this one. Reportedly the computer systems used to operate the harbours have been incapacitated by a cyber-attack. And the ports have closed. A ransom demand apparently has been made to the authorities whose quite possible and truthful response will be that they have no money. Even if they refer the extortionists to National Treasury, they too can do little but launch their usual emergency strategy of going through everyone’s pockets and feeling down the back of the couches in the visitor’s waiting room. From my position of assistant deputy self-appointed part-time harbour master, I can confirm that the number of ships loitering out in the ocean roadstead has risen a lot. Mind you those crews wouldn’t be able to buy a drink even if they could dock. Covid, you know. Suppose they held a Games, and nobody came? One does have to feel very sorry for the Japanese. The only amusing story coming out of Tokyo concerns the cardboard beds being used in the Olympic Village. The bulky lads and lasses taking part are anxious, despite assurances that the beds have been tested for any eventuality. This need to recycle everything should have limits. As are we all down here on the southern tip. Satellite pictures reveal an exceptional cold front about to hit the country. The B & I Lions might unfortunately find that to their liking in tomorrow’s Test James Greener Friday July 23rd 2021

Friday 16 July 2021

LOOT RESPONSIBLY

This title is the behaviour guideline offered by Duduzane Zuma, who is one of ex-president Jacob Zuma’s nearly two dozen children. Presumably, he learned it at his father’s knee but quite what this instruction implies is unclear. Would it, for example, apply to a well-dressed man who arrives at Woolworths in a very smart car and saunters in to select a trolly load of tasty delicacies which he neglects to pay for? To be fair, the tellers had long since left their posts. Perhaps Duduzane is against the looting technique where ATMs are prized from the wall with a crowbar, presumably by someone who had forgotten their PIN. And then what about stealing TV sets and other appliances which are far too big to fit in a car and necessitate liberating a forklift to lug the goodies home? Surely its irresponsible not first to measure up your loot? There are so many unrecorded tragedies, heart-warming alliances, unsolved conundrums and unexpected outcomes and developments emerging from this breakout of massive civil unrest and lawlessness. It is now only of historic interest to determine whether the flashpoint was the jailing of Zuma or President Cyril’s extension a few hours later of the punitive economic lockdown in the name of controlling the spread of Covid 19. This latter move is by far the most damaging for every citizen and the “enough is enough” attitude was widespread. The majority of this week’s looting and arson have taken place in and around Durban within a few kms of Tidemarks’ own lookout. The hopelessly under-resourced police were overwhelmed and became incapable of effective response and so by Monday evening, ordinary citizens, many still young enough to recall their own days of conscription, set up and manned strategic roadblocks and street patrols. They have been successful since then in keeping the largely residential areas quiet and safe. The level of gun ownership in the suburb is both amazing and reassuring at times like this. Tidemarks has selected his heaviest walking stick whilst the well prepared are sharing ammo even with the police. Unsurprisingly for our times, a mobile phone app (Zello) that mimics walkie-talkie radios, appeared within minutes and honey-voiced ladies were soon co-ordinating operations. Lots of “roger this” and “copy that” has broken out. Some commentators have become dewy eyed at the thought of and evidence for South Africans of every sort standing shoulder to shoulder in defence of their communities. As ever this nation’s capacity to behave unexpectedly has amazed us all. In the absence of formal supply lines operating and with stores failing to open, back-yard popups have appeared, with fresh produce “fetched from the farm this morning!” No one asks any questions. As previously suggested by Tidemarks, the Minibus Taxi industry is probably the nation’s most significant power bloc, and the signs are appearing that they are largely on the side of returning to a rule of law. Encouraging. They too can’t find food, fuel or fares. Almost as difficult to understand this weekend is just who will be playing where and when and even why. The B & I Lions apparently are unconcerned by the mayhem, presumably because it is no worse than facing a ‘bok scrum or getting mugged outside Wembley. The aerial pictures of Royal St Georges, venue for The Open, suggest that historians may have erred in telling us that there was no invasion of England during the second world war. Those pot bunkers are identical to shell holes. Then there will be the new F1 Sprint qualifying format at Silverstone where even the tyre allocation rules require legal opinion. As usual, by the end of the Tour de France, Tidemarks becomes infused with the idea of owning an E-bike and cruising gently down to the Ski Boat Club for a cold beer on warm and sunny days. The French race route this year looked brutal and the suggestion that pharmaceuticals may have been used is hardly surprising. All I’d have to worry about would be the battery running out. James Greener Friday 16th July 2021

Friday 9 July 2021

RIDERS IN THE SKY

It has been a fascinating time to live through here on the southern tip as the nation has been pursuing a very significant project to determine the various rankings of our courts and our law enforcement agencies. It has become popular to describe the Constitutional Court as the apex court in the land. This is in question however, ever since ex-president Zuma’s counsel advised him to request a High Court to overturn the contempt of court ruling served on him by the Con Court. The next dose of amazement was the sight of the Minister of Police shimmying in every direction at once trying not to have to coax his previous boss to don a pair of handcuffs. In the end in a move described by his spokesman as an act of compliance by a law abiding citizen, Zuma bolted from his private residence at Nkandla and made a last minute dash to a prison in Estcourt. (yes the 3rd “court” of the paragraph). Described by a member of his legal team as a “penniless old man with bad health and legal advice” one wonders if seeing his mates the Gupta brothers will even cheer him up. It seems as if the last of the red tape preventing the extradition of the Gupta brothers (and perhaps some of their chums) from Dubai to South Africa has been snipped away. Probably they are not too thrilled even if they are getting the message from Jacob that the Estcourt prison is brand new although the chef is not much good at curry. Local taxpayers should be wary as they will be funding the prosecution. Lawyers, however, foresee litigation and argument and fee notes stretching out until their grandchildren can take over the briefs. Most people who have been to receive their doses of Covid-19 vaccination are delighted and astonished by the efficiency skill and professionalism shown at the clinics both pop-up and permanent. When this is all over, we need to get these people in to run the whole country. What does concern those of us doing the necessary long division is that the rate of progress of the vaccination program is not nearly high enough. We really should be aiming to complete the program well before the boffins at the WHO announce that they have identified another variant of the virus and named it omega. [the last letter in the Greek alphabet]. It is also interesting to see how few people in each age cohort are being reached compared to population size estimates. There are of course plenty of probable reasons for this including the presence of illegal foreigners who presumably are not eligible for the South African funded vaccine, and the likelihood of gross errors and fraud in the registration for the various state grants. Have the bureaucrats who drafted the pointless POPIA legislation, twigged onto the fact that so far we have been pestered by only those of our correspondents who have our details stored electronically? Even the letters, when the are finally delivered, will have been spewed from a database. No one still in business today will have any need for the astonishing section of the act where our smart and caring government actually specifies the sort of paper shredder that must be used to destroy printed documents. The fact is that our information resides for ever on servers in the cloud. Wherever they may be. It is possibly safe even from Eskom. Reportedly the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in Wimbledon is conducting a medical experiment during its Annual Championship being held now. It wants to find out how dangerous (specifically getting infected by the Covid-19 virus) it will turn out to be for people to attend the tournament. This is probably far more important and significant as it sounds since lack of good data about events like this are causing cancellations of similar events all over the world. Including the bokke’s second scheduled tests against the Georgians tomorrow and the B & I Lions in the coming weeks. James Greener Friday 9th July 2021

TAXI DRIVERS. SOUTH AFRICA’S REAL POWER BLOC

In four closely spaced moves in early 2020 the Reserve Bank dropped the Repo rate from 6.25% to 3.5% where it has remained ever since. Obviously this slashing of the cost of money was supposed to be a prop for the economy which was expected to (and did) collapse as a result of the lockdown measures taken by our leaders in their attempt to control the spread of Covid-19. Nothing much to do with responding to and controlling this infection has gone according to plan. In the last few days any South African with a computer or mobile phone connected to the internet will have received dozens of unintelligible scripts droning on about Protection of Personal Information Act, POPIA to its creators. This legislation kicked in yesterday but it’s not clear what is expected of us. “Nothing” seems the best reaction. Even before computers the possibility of someone using your private information to commit a fraud has existed. And vigilance rather than legislation is the preferred protection. Today the reach of the internet is now so deep and embedded that despite any regulation, the baddies will still obtain and use anything they want. On how many memory sticks, hard drives and devices does each of us have details of our contacts. And how about that not quite extinct publication called the phone book? Will golf clubs have to erase all records of their members scores and handicaps? The Ski Boat Club has kindly informed me that “Daisy” is responsible for operating CCTV and Encrypted backups. Thanks for that. The one organisation that most of us would request to erase their records about us is SARS – the tax man. Simultaneously with POPIA, the AARTO legislation is reaching fruition. This apparently will link drivers and their cars with past infractions of the law. Undoubtedly the road safety record of our nation is in sore need of fierce and uncompromising application of laws already in place. But the reaction of the immensely powerful minibus taxi industry to any attempt to do so has in the past failed. The drivers say “No”. Hmm. Constitutional court Justice Sisi Khampepe is a feisty lady – who told Jacob Zuma – the previous state president what she thought of his attitude and sentenced him to 15 months in prison for contempt of court. He was given a few days to pack his kit and choose his books and is required to pitch up round about now at a police station to start his sentence. In the great South African tradition of siding with the guilty, a paramilitary posse has pitched up at Nkandla, Jacob’s now sadly rather under cared-for home in deepest Zululand. Whether to escort him to his incarceration or repel officialdom coming to take him away was not clear. It’s always interesting in Africa. The ‘bokke take on the Lelos, the Georgian national side, tonight at Ellis Park. It could be a very tough game, as any side would like to beat the world champs on their first match since hoisting the world cup. Unfortunately, not only will there be no spectators allowed but anyone contemplating sneaking round to watch the game on his brother-in-law’s gigantic new TV flat screen must prepare for a sprint home to beat the curfew. This virus is changing our lives mercilessly. As a veteran Tour de France competitor (in the static couch potato division) Tidemarks was interested in the attempted protest by the participants in this year’s race. The route, they say, is in places too dangerous. There have indeed been some very spectacular crashes, caused by, amongst other factors, rather stupid spectators. But the kudos and prestige of this race is such that among the nearly 150 competitors someone will always break the attempted boycott and use their fellow competitor’s sullen slow down to their own benefit. Inevitably, by the end of the day of the protest, the riders were back to breakneck speeds and fiercely competitive behaviour even if the chance of a trip to casualty to extract pieces of bike from one’s body remains high. Which – apart from the breath-taking scenery – is why we watch. James Greener Friday 2nd July 2021

Friday 25 June 2021

TALES FROM THE CRYPT

Later this weekend we may be invited to tune in for the next episode of “Presidential Prattle from his iPad”. That’s if he doesn’t once again lose the magic slate with his notes. There is a distinct skill required for using a so called “tablet” as a prompting device, the first being not to lose it. One does also need a tame IT boffin on standby to locate the file again if you inadvertently flick a sandwich crumb or pesky fly from the screen and your sacred text turns in to your screen saver, and the whole world can see your pet fluffy animal picture collection. Once again, the play of the day is guessing what our wise leaders have come up with to control the spread of the rather nasty respiratory infection. Judging from the frantic queues forming at the local bottle store last night, Cyril is expected to tamper with our booze supplies. Undeniably we South Africans, when liquored up, are utterly lethal road users who place huge demands for casualty treatment from hospitals already busy with Covid patients. How, one wonders will the authorities deal with drunk driving when Covid no longer provides the excuse to control booze sales? The real panic patter has it that tobacco sales will also be reimposed. After all, the argument goes, we know that the ruling has run out of money and is battling to pay its own employees, and we also suspect that the same party has lucrative links to black markets in both these commodities. Nah! Can’t be a grain of truth. Pure scuttlebutt. The headline that “Two South African brothers, Raees and Ameer Cajee, recently vanished along with an estimated R51 billion in Bitcoin from their cryptocurrency investment platform Africrypt.”, is so rich in various ironies that one doesn’t know where to start. Straight off it seems unlikely that the Cajee boys knew the usual use of the word crypt when selecting a name for their business scam. But that is exactly where the investors’ money has gone. To a crypt. Never to be seen again. From the scant data available it is obvious that the lads were running a standard ponzi scheme, this time dressing it up in the mystique of “crypto currencies”. An allegedly attractive aspect of these poorly understood virtual assets, is the fact that they are unregulated and in fact may be unregulatable. Sadly many folk have obviously already lost a great deal of money in the last few days and are scratching around for official help but it is very unlikely to be forthcoming. Since none of the transactions seem to have passed through any gateway where a regulatory fee might have been paid, that suggests that Mr Plod wont be very keen to come and take a look since he already knows what he will find. Nothing! In an interview in December 2020, the brothers spoke about “hard work, ethics, morals, and responsibilities” to make their new business work. So now that it’s failed, what was missing? Amongst all the bickering about who has the “best science” in the Corona virus squabbles comes some proper physics. Astronomers have pinpointed more than 2,000 stars from where, in the not-too-distant past or future, Earth could be detected transiting across the face of the Sun. In essence this is the answer to the neatly posed questions “Who has the cosmic front seat to see us?” and “For whom would we be the aliens?” Far more interesting than the arguments about which vaccine is better. The solstice has passed and the northern hemisphere sporting season is hotting up. The surprisingly rapid reintroduction of fans to stadia is very welcome and as their numbers grow, their age-old habit and right of expressing their opinion about what is happening before them is becoming more audible. This is causing apoplexy amongst regulators who have spent the past year forgetting entirely the wonderful adage that “sticks and stone may hurt my bones, but words can never harm me.” James Greener Friday 25th June 2021 (6 months to Christmas)

Friday 11 June 2021

SOASATIES. SOUTH AFRICA’S OWN SPIKE(D) PROTEIN

Commodities prices are blasting through 5-year highs as the recovery from last year’s lockdown lows just keeps going. They are still not halfway back to the last giant price peaks of 2007 though. The indices are not much use for that sort of time scale though and each specific commodity will have a fascinating tale to tell of its market price journey. What seems obvious though is that people want to get back to work and make and sell things. It is astonishing how quickly the sense that their citizens were utterly fed up with the various virus transmission control measures still being enforced, made authorities relax their rules. Undoubtedly the dramatic unmasking of Prof Fauci in the USA as being no more informed than any other commentator or medic, helped change many minds. Increasingly large parts of the globe are slipping back to more normal times. But Southern Africa appears to be lagging quite badly. The two factors driving this could be the painfully slow vaccine roll out here in SA and the onset of winter, when flu-like infections flourish. Having scared the population into treating every cough and sniffle as unquestionable symptoms of a life-threatening disease, it is difficult to unwind that mindset. For some reason sports administrators and their charges have decided that they need also be responsible for managing spectators through the risks of infection. Until of course they board the bus home. Curious. The virus is losing its “hot topic” ranking in many parts of the developed world. It is so 2020! For example, the agenda for this weekend’s Group of Seven summit meeting has bumped “Green Finance”, whatever that might be, up to pole position. It seems that the world’s richest governments are under mounting pressure to help poor countries fight climate change and the term Green Finance is the code. Somehow South Africa has cracked the nod to attend – they are always keen participants when money is being handed out -- but have been allocated seats near the toilets. Also their iconic scarves in the colours of our flag are useful warning signs to avoid, else one will be handed a begging letter. As is common for these gatherings of the great and good they fear being confronted by disrespectful citizens and they choose venues that are easy to isolate from the hoi polloi. St Ives, once the home of a serial bigamist and cat lover, is perfect. The politicians are back tinkering with the school system in order to disguise that it doesn’t work, They have invented what they call the General Education Certificate (GEC) and to my mind it is merely the resurrection of the once popular Junior Certificate (JC). A holder of a GEC will be permitted (but not encouraged) to leave the school system. Who benefits the most from this gerrymandering is hard to tell. The kids will still be unemployable. Oh dear. All these bits of paper and still today many can’t read, let alone understand long division. Is there not a single encouraging policy or initiative announced by government that is not within days infested with methods and paths to siphon off the allocated funds never to be seen again util they reach the Range Rover showroom? Is it possible that the really good news about increasing the upper limit of allowable private power generation to 100MW (from the derisory 1MW) is corruption proof? Hold my beer and watch this I hear you cry. The scheme to berth specialist power generating ships in the harbours and hook them up to the grid fell at the first hurdle when a squabble about money exposed the deceits. Viewers who have little interest in watching soccer and lots of it, might need to visit the library soon. Cricket from the West Indies suffers from time of day issues and Rainbow Cup rugby is worryingly déjà vu. But we are about to sample a surfeit of sport as July approaches. So just borrow short books! James Greener Friday 11th June 2021

Friday 4 June 2021

REF! THE BALL CALLED ME A CHEAT!

Once again, the two allegedly “professional’s” indicators: bond yields and FX rates, reveal that the bull is alive and well when it comes to the nation. Whatever the news about the ideas and foolishness or otherwise of our fearless leaders, “the smart money” is not worried. Last April a US dollar cost you R19. Today a mere R13.50 will score you a green back. Alternatively, you could lend those rand to the National treasury for 10 years at around 7.25%pa. But those dreaded Ratings Agencies are all of the opinion that its not so certain if you will get them back. Government policies like the one below, are really worrying. How exactly do those who go out to sell our story, explain to potential investors that when they come to disinvest, our government has rules about to whom they may sell. These rules revisit race and other classification criteria that outsiders might reasonably assume disappeared in 1994. What is certain is that the effective price will be lower than it would be without those restrictions. And the buyers could quite easily expect the seller to lend them the money to do the deal! South Africa is not for sissies. It was a week in which Stats SA published its numbers about how many people are at work. The short answer is around 15 million, which is at least 2m fewer than the last pre-pandemic data release. The long answer, which arranges the data according to age, finds that 70% of the nation’s young are unemployed! The overall figures provide a rough guide to the economic catastrophe caused by the lockdown method for controlling the spread of the Covid-19 infection. Meanwhile the head count of citizens collecting one of the half-dozen types of state grants grows inexorably and may now be above 18 m. A rumour suggests that the government had accepted the inevitable and is about to announce a basic minimum income grant for everyone aged 19 to 59. Sadly, maths and listening to people who know a bit about how governments are funded, are not skills common among our decision makers and painful disillusionment awaits most of the nation. The taxman, who we all know is desperately scratching around for revenue, is convinced that many of the crypto cowboys are not being totally honest about their trading profits. And since our government has declared that we must all share any good fortune we have with the state, the men from SARS are on the hunt. Or as they put it, “conducting a risk assessment exercise on residents”! As exercises go this could be rather exhausting for those who keep appearing on the internet boasting of the uncountable billions their guesswork has delivered. Tidemarks long ago learned to treat stories of uncountable trading profits with suspicion and this coupled with the flakiness of the product and its deliberately obscured paper trail might leave the National Treasury empty handed. Those who point to the vaccine rollout program as an example of government success do have a point. Albeit one that is unrolling rather slowly. The much-admired Health Minister Zweli Mkhize must be rather distracted these days. Any business calling itself “Digital Vibes” deserves a quick audit to find out exactly what it does before government sends it any of our money and the good doctor may not have done the necessary homework. Digital Vibes is a very low rent outfit providing “communication services”. All Mkhize may have scored is a second hand bakkie for his son. But plenty of folk say they can scent blood in the water. News is coming through that Gilbert, the manufacturer of rugby balls, have managed to insert some robust electronics inside the ball and so rugby players will soon encounter something on the field that is way cleverer than they are. Just for a start, the ball knows where it is. Then it can tell who handled and kicked it last, and my personal favourite, it issues an alert if it feels it has been passed forward. Every fan has a view about this specific infringement and a lot of beer is often needed to cool down opinions about the ref’s eyesight. Slowly slowly, the crowds are being allowed back into the stadia. The Olympics are not yet a certainty though are they? James Greener Friday 4th June 2021

Friday 28 May 2021

LOVELY RITA METER MAID

The total rand amount of the earnings reported by the constituent shares of the JSE All Share index over the past 12 months has recovered enormously since the low recorded in the last quarter of 2020. In common with many informal and anecdotal reports in the same vein, this is welcome news but very had to explain. Where is the money coming from to fuel the reported surge in demand? Tidemarks suggests that we are witnessing the most perfect example of trickledown economics ever recorded. Public money raised by taxes and loans pass effectively and efficiently almost directly into the hands of those eager and unafraid to spend it. On themselves. This is a chain which is unlikely to be broken by seeking to install incorruptible and civic minded officials and bureaucrats who will deliver what the citizens expect and more significantly need if this nation is to become competitive. The chain is large and seemingly comprised of networks of a small number of large families. Their most annoying characteristic of this self-denoted A-list elite, after a talent for grand larceny, is a complete denial of any arithmetic which demonstrates that their lifestyle depends on a very small number of increasingly disillusioned payers of very large taxes. Their insistence, for example, that there is demand for the resurrection of the SAA the state- owned airline has no basis in any financial or transport universe. Recently Tidemarks wondered who was brave enough to take on the minibus taxi industry and break the news to them that “Really it would be jolly sporting and patriotic of them to start paying income tax”! And now the government want these same taxi drivers, along with everyone else in the country, to give up their hand-guns. The government’s thesis is that there is no need for individuals to have a weapon for self defence. Really? This was a bad time to choose to release a photograph of a suite of rooms, presumably in Pretoria, where the Firearm Registry, operated by the police, reportedly store their records. It was, one must say, surprisingly neat. But the sight of tonnes of paper stacked from floor to ceiling without a shelf, bookcase or filing cabinet to be seen raises doubts about just what is being controlled in this manner. Presumably these records are the original sheafs of A4 forms completed by gun owners over the past few decades when the previous system was changed. So now there is RTIA - the Road Traffic Infringement Agency, another grammar-challenged newly formed outfit that feeds on public money. It is tasked with administering the “Aarto Value Chain” an oxymoronic and meaningless concept. RTIA is complaining that it will need to rely on other state agencies like the Department of Transport and the South African Post Office to do its job. Further, RTIA is dependent on the NCR which is administered by the Road Traffic Management Corporation. And perhaps worst of all, The Government Printing Works is responsible for printing the Aarto notice books. Oh no! How will they ever do their job? And do we actually need it? The TV producer who decided to start interviewing athletes hasn’t bequeathed us a universally winning idea. While their appearance on the screen is normally due to noteworthy or exceptional performance in their discipline, not all are gifted speakers or natural and interesting commentators. Especially not if they have just completed a gruelling session of physical effort. Euphoria, excitement and adrenaline will carry them only a few sentences down the road before their words – often in a foreign language – are banal and embarrassing and only their parents are still listening. Unwisely producers often welcome the sports man or woman who is articulate or emboldened enough to use the TV exposure to espouse a cause that is unrelated to their talent and achievement. Naomi Osaka the very successful tennis player has announced that she won’t fulfil the media obligations (i.e. answer trite and silly questions on camera) required of her at the forthcoming French Open. She will be fined for this breach of contract and has chosen to pay her penalties to a charity. It certainly raises the question of just who owns Ms Osaka’s time when she is not on a tennis court. James Greener Friday 28th May 2021