Friday 20 July 2018

PLUMBING THE DEPTHS


The word debacle is far too mild a descriptor for the deepening swamps that are growing around VBS and Steinhof just to name the two headline items of the moment. More and more unexpected names and institutions are being mentioned. The program of weakening reasonably trustworthy institutions by sending in utterly corrupt comrades to control and loot them was incredibly successful. But then it wasn’t just the usual suspects who piled in to help themselves. Previously respectable private sector professions and businesses realised that the regulators were not paying attention or in most cases not even at their desks, and so behaved rather badly. The unsupervised flows of public money washed away scruples and integrity as the chances of being punished, even if caught, vanished.
June’s inflation figure of 4.6%pa was higher than most experts guessed but clearly way below the experience of all the protestors who have been burning trucks, libraries and other useful stuff. Their actions are savage and disappointing but their dissatisfaction with the situation is intense and understandable. Even Reserve Bank Governor Kganyago is sufficiently sceptical to have left the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. This “price of money” indicator is currently probably not the most important factor in the minds of those trying to make a living in the boring old way of satisfying customer’s needs for goods and services. Now that our proudly Marxist government has assigned to itself the role of engine for growth it is very poor at paying bills and honouring contracts for big and valuable infrastructural projects. Instead it is rewarding buddies and cadres just for being there. How else do you understand the sizable public notice in a major newspaper owned by a chum giving notice that Kwa-Zulu Natal Department of Public Works had let 10.75square meters for use as a tuck shop in a hospital in Ladysmith?
President Cyril had to share a platform and a policy with old Number One on Wednesday, presumably because it was Nelson Mandela’s birthday.  Reportedly they both endorsed the notion that confiscating property from citizens would unleash enormous growth as the hitherto landless masses would then be able to surge into profitable farming ventures. That there is not a scrap of evidence pointing either to unfulfilled demand for land suitable for commercial farming nor that central planning of such ventures is ever successful, obviously troubled neither speaker. It should however trouble those waiting for our new leader to show real steps towards his promised “New Dawn” and a firm and decisive rejection of the man his own party fired.
Meanwhile over on the other side of the country the MeerKAT, a multi-million rand radio telescope, began working pretty much on time and within budget. The fellows published an image of the centre of our galaxy taken with this fancy new device. This caused a scramble as everyone tried to understand how dozens of “satellite dishes” could be called a telescope. Especially as no photograph of a wild-haired astronomer peering down a tube was released by the operators. Together with the nearby SALT optical telescope this patch of the Karroo is quietly becoming a success story we so desperately need. Rather like 7s rugby and ….. No well, never mind.
It’s rather fun to speculate what Mr Errol Present, an  ANC head office employee, filled in on his leave form when taking days off to go and blow up and rob the cash-in-transit trucks. Did he say he had a dentist appointment or taking the children for an outing or did he tell the truth and say he was augmenting his salary with a second job? He has been fired, but undoubtedly lawyers are already preparing the case for wrongful dismissal and reinstatement.
The real reason that Airbus have developed that very big and cute whale-faced transport aircraft named the Beluga XL, is to ensure that cadres can in future accompany their money on the flight to Dubai.
I shall not be able to write Tidemarks for the next few weeks (the plumbing in my heart needs repair) but rest assured I shall not stop looking for follies and foolishness on which to heap scorn and offer valuable advice just as soon as I get back to my keyboard.
James Greener
Friday 20th July 2018

Friday 13 July 2018

SOMEONE ELSE WILL PAY


It doesn’t help the cause of the rabid Trump haters in Europe who have gathered to protest his presence on that side of the “pond” to have pictures of their own supremo EU President Jean-Claude Juncker badly under the influence of what his aides insist is back pain but looks a lot like alcohol. Also under the influence of something, are the markets which are mostly directionless. Most of us have scant appreciation of just how all-powerful the rise of robot-driven decision-making and trading has become.  The long-anticipated price corrections may these days perhaps be worked out in tens of thousands of transactions instead of a heart-stopping plunge or two.
Any hopes that billionaire and now president Cyril has a deep understanding of how business works will have been dashed this week when he was reported to have asked various private sectors to “absorb” the massive fuel price increases and not pass them on to consumers (and voters). There is still a week left of the grace period the president asked for before revealing his master plan to deal with these problems, but so far, this lame idea is unexciting. So too is the plan to tinker with the list of food items that are VAT exempt. Frustratingly, no one in power will acknowledge the glaring evidence that almost every public employee who has the even the tiniest opportunity to steal public money has managed to avoid the temptation to do so. There is considerable match between the amount of money misspent and misappropriated and the funds that are needed to rescue the national infrastructure and institutions. Absent dishonesty and greed and after selling off assets that should not be owned by the state, there is undoubtedly sufficient wealth to run the country sensibly. There are also considerable but grievously misused organisational skills in the nation as demonstrated by the chillingly effective farm murders, the military precision cash-in-transit robberies and the cigarette smuggling networks.
The joke of the week was the headline that SAA was seeking an “equity partner”. A greater misuse of these last two words would be difficult to find. The word equity implies that there could be a return on an investment. And the word partner implies that the investor should participate in running the operation. Assuredly neither is going to happen. What SAA is actually looking for is a Fairy Godmother with a full purse and a poor memory. What SAA needs is rapid euthanasia and letters to all taxpayers and other creditors thanking us for our support and regretting that we won’t be seeing our money back ever.
One of the few government services that we actually need is the one that can issue us with passports. With this duty comes the obligation that the service be stationed at the many border crossing points to monitor who is coming and going. Reportedly they are not too successful with this task because there are numerous informal crossing points – African rivers are rarely full enough to discourage waders! Governments, however, also think it is important to keep a record of everyone within their borders whether they want to travel abroad or not and so Home Affairs (a rather coy and cosy name) also attempts to keep a register of births, deaths and marriages – a task that is visibly crumbling these days under the weight of massive population growth. Many of us have tales about 3-hour queues and the shrugged response that the “computer was out-of-order” just to obtain a vital  document from Home Affairs. So the announcements by the dangerously clueless and narcissistic minister Gigaba that this ministry under his care was firstly 8000 people understaffed and secondly was going to go “paperless” are rather confusing. Should we be alarmed or delighted?
The good thing about Sunday’s World Cup Final match is that we will get to see the rather comely Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović in the VIP box instead of British Prime Minister Theresa May. The latter lady would not be in the best of moods having been told off by the visiting Donald Trump for not obeying his instructions on how to take the nation out of the EU. Meanwhile in Galle, if the Proteas received any instructions on how to play spin bowling it certainly didn’t sink in.
James Greener
Friday 13th July 2018

Friday 6 July 2018

UP IN SMOKE

As usual there’s a tussle between bulls and bears looking for clues in the usual charts and news items about the markets. The main story seems to be President Trump’s determination that he knows the correct price for everything and anyone offering stuff to his country at a lower one will be hit with a penalty tax. While this protectionism is almost always welcomed by the local producers of the same stuff, significant price gaps are of course a signal of an imbalance that will in due course unwind, very often in an unforeseen manner. These days its quite likely that the correction will have its origin in something that the internet can do better than anything else: distribute information.
The talking heads are mumbling about an inexorable rise in the price of money. That is interest rates are on the up and in a world where the total amount of debt is so much larger than ever before this is always grist to the mill of the bear. Here in SA the debt totals and metrics are simply terrifying and that’s without adding in the potential train smash that would be caused by the threatened EWC (expropriation without compensation) policy that would leave mortgages in an unexplored no man’s land. The banks have been uncharacteristically quiet about this matter. Maybe they hope that behind the scenes negotiating is the way to explain to communists how the modern world works.
While this policy is likely born of a desire to punish specific sectors of the population, it should of course apply to everyone and this possibility provided a wonderful opportunity for the Zulu king to call an imbizo. This is a gathering dominated by men wearing the skins and claws of endangered cat species and the turnout on Wednesday was enormous and probably alarming for those leaders who have discarded tribal structures in favour of the perhaps more sophisticated Westminster style politics. The king and his audience of chiefs and headmen derive considerable income from stewardship of almost half of the land down on this side of the nation. They are clearly unimpressed by the possibility that EWC could spill over into nationalising “traditionally held” land. i.e. theirs! Speakers at the imbizo wanted not only to remove the name Natal but also hinted of some sort of declaration of independence from RSA.  Now folk who don’t live here may be quite in favour of the idea of a Zululand UDI, seeing it as an opportunity to shed from the rest of South Africa a large net tax-eating province. Our response is to warn them that a visitor’s visa will be required and the costs to use our beaches, net our sardines and attend our horse races will be swingeing. And the Sharks would become a Test playing team. Oh, and you’ll need to ask politely when you need some sugar.
The week’s revelation for us clueless chumps was that the combination of corrupt tax officials, dodgy cigarette manufacturers and allegedly health-preserving tobacco sin tax increases, reduced the revenue collection on these items. Is it possible that we as a nation are really smoking fewer cigarettes? Very doubtful. Research shows that more than a third of cigarettes are sold at below the cost of just the tax alone and so obviously have found a loophole. The un-assessed tax billions were not wasted however. Politicians of every stripe have been grateful recipients of donations to keep their lifestyles up to standard.   
Now that the financial rewards for cheating in sport are so tremendous, it is a relief that the Tour de France starts this weekend. Not that there aren’t any pill poppers taking part there but it has become the most wonderful travelogue program on TV. The organisers of the race and the producers of the TV coverage are total masters at choosing routes and camera angles that show off the very best of the French countryside. Just ignore the 200 odd lean and sweaty men peddling furiously and focus on the other parts of the screen. Totally marvellous. The tennis is now a grunt fest, grand prix results are suspicious, and soccer is akin to a revivalist healing session complete with shamans and miracle cures. And for SA fans, rugby and cricket are infested with politics. And if your rear gets bit numb with all this sport just remember to call the Road Accident Fund chaps who will put you in touch with someone who’ll rent you a nice comfortable chair for a mere R1666 a month.
James Greener
Friday 6th July 2018

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