SITTING UNDER A TREE WOULD BE DECOLONISED

When short term interest rates rise above long term ones, those familiar with the jargon speak of an inverted yield curve and the word “recession” begins to be wafted about. However, like most rules of thumb in the investment world, this one does not invariably work, but for the talking heads obliged to cover developments in the US  bond markets, an inverted yield curve is sufficiently uncommon for it to be a great source of material for a column or a sound bite. So far however, there is scant other suggestion that things are slowing down sufficiently in the US for those who loath President Trump to tar him with that brush just yet. In the UK there is also no evidence that anyone has much idea what to do next. Except the mouth-foaming extremists who have plans, but no one wants to listen.

Sabric is the acronym for The SA Banking Risk Information Centre, an outfit that few will have heard of, or maybe confused with an industrial association of brick manufacturers. Their big concern, however, is that internet-based scams are becoming ever more sophisticated and successful at emptying bank accounts unlawfully. Meanwhile South Africans are a bit disappointed that the threatened strike by bank staff did not go ahead. It was hoped that the angry tellers would follow the example set by the striking garbage collectors and strew the streets with notes.

The government is spluttering in annoyance that a group of South Africans have broken ground for the construction of a tertiary educational institution. They are combing the rule books to find a way to stop a community of proud and wealthy citizens spending a rather modest R300m to build a facility that will offer instruction in Afrikaans. This rather typical and praiseworthy initiative of a fiercely proud and self-reliant “volk” will probably offer nothing more threatening or confrontational than a role model for any other community to do the same without state money. And yet the politicians have become incoherent with anger, incorrectly calling the initiative “racist”. Meanwhile it turns out that in April the ruling party opened the OR Tambo School of Leadership which “seeks to build agents of change who have a well-rounded worldview”. Their website goes on to explain that “This political school is an autonomous educational institution to build the ideological, intellectual and organizational capacity of the African National Congress and the broader progressive and democratic movement”.  Whatever this may all mean, that last topic is sorely needed.

Not even the once revered giant assurance company Old Mutual that dominated the SA investment scene for so many years seems to have much organisational capacity anymore. Its Chairman, the All Black-supporting yet otherwise effective one-time Minister of Finance, Trevor Manuel can’t find a way to fire CEO Peter Moyo. Three times the man has sauntered back through the front door intent on reoccupying the top floor corner office after finding a loophole in the dismissal process. It can’t be good for morale in that company.

Reportedly the theme of a recent congress of the teacher’s union, SADTU was “Claiming our right to have our human dignity and safety protected and respected in pursuit of a decolonised quality public education.”  On inspection this may not exactly be a theme but more of a demand that others who are not teachers should obey. It is significant and unsurprising that there is not a word about their customers, the pupils, who are consistently coming last in world rankings of educational standards whether decolonialised or otherwise. One wonders if any delegates were puzzled or brave enough to ask how decolonised education differs from any other sort. One answer might be gleaned from the short video doing the rounds which shows local schoolboys being instructed in the vicious skill of stick-fighting.

How have the Japanese managed to produce such beautifully manicured greensward for the many RWC venues? Their organisation appears to be faultless and the use of a recording of a huge temple gong to mark the end of a half is brilliant. The poor referees, however, are picking up flack not only from the less than objective fan base, but also their own employer has grumbled about some of them in public. It will be interesting to see if any will bolt for it before the tournament is over. Go ‘bokke.

James Greener

Friday 27^th September 2019

COME ON THE ‘BOKKE

Only the most dedicated and well-informed journalists attempt to understand and explain the chaos that that seems from this distance to reign in the politics of many of the major powers. Trump loses or fires apparent allies on a weekly basis, European politicians can’t believe that its citizens are no longer grateful for the armies of bureaucrats telling them what to do. And China (like France) has an uppity citizenry on its hands. Meanwhile well-meaning but irony-blind and naïve teenagers compete to make the most foolish speeches, posters and marches complaining about the weather. So, when something substantive and important happens like this week’s bombing of an industrial plant in Saudi-Arabia through which a large fraction of the world’s oil passes, that feels like real news and a portent of Armageddon. But the spike in the oil price was rather minimal and short lived. And nothing much else has happened in the markets. Is this perhaps a result of the ubiquity and immediacy of multiple opinions? Certainly, in earlier times in the local markets a single analyst’s report, an unexpected global event or well-sourced rumour could have profound effects.

This week the bi-monthly two day-long gathering at the Reserve Bank of the five person brains-trust known as the Monetary Policy Committee decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%pa. For three and a half years now, this officially declared “price” of money has remained in the narrow band between 6.5% and 7.0% pa. Governor Kganyago’s stewardship of the process is all very grown up and well behaved and quite unlike most official activities in South Africa. One shudders at the thought of what might happen if the great unwashed get their way and take control of SARB. The puzzling (or perhaps instructive) thing though is that this once upon a time closely watched and discussed parameter is today largely ignored, possibly not much understood and appears to have scant effect on the country’s dismal economic growth or on its volatile currency. Maybe that’s a consequence of the suspicion that largely due to corruption the country is awash in unrecorded cash transactions where interest rates are immaterial? Curious.

It's rather telling that Cosatu, the labour union federation body, and nominally the third leg in the government tripartite alliance is getting grumpy about the law that will require unions to hold secret ballots when consulting its members on actions such as coming out on strike. The next step should be to require workers to make their own arrangements for paying union subscriptions instead of obliging employers to deduct it from the wage payment. Individuals will then be able to make value for money judgements about belonging to organisations that order them to strike without income for long periods of time.

Anyone who has faced the horrors of visiting a branch of the Home Affairs department in order to obtain a document will sympathise with the million children who do not have birth certificates. And therefore, don’t have that all-important Identity Number, without which living in South Africa is very tricky and registering for school impossible. The succession of incompetent deadbeats who have been appointed as Minister of Home Affairs shows that Presidents have failed to understand this fact or done anything about it. Apparently the most important thing in every branch is that it is furnished with a set of large full-colour mugshots of the politicians ultimately responsible for the inactivity and inefficiency unfolding in the hall below their baleful gaze.

There is something rather sad about the fact that the Proteas, now playing T20s in India have sold the back of their match shirts to an Indian dairy firm. Presumably no SA business could match the sum offered by Amul – probably in a nice offshore currency too.  I’m now rather anxious to see who the ‘bokke are going to be advertising.  Not that it may make much difference for their first match tomorrow against the All Blacks because so much rain is forecast for the venue that both teams will soon both be mud coloured anyway. But do look out for the clever way the ‘bok jersey collars strut their stuff. The talking heads have been trotted out on TV, radio and podcasts. If inane and overexcited commentary counts for anything the bokke will win by 6 points. Has the IRU banned the haka yet?

Time for the first match now.

James Greener

Friday 20^th September 2019

IT’S A MAUL

Could it be a harbinger of the bokke bringing home the World Cup? Most of the indicators like currency and share (especially banks) and bond prices have strengthened a little. Business confidence has gone the other way but maybe that’s because companies suspect that productivity is going to plunge with kick-off times in working hours. As others have remarked, it is astonishing just how unaffected the markets are by what those of us who follow “social media” feel is a huge wave of lawlessness swamping the country. The racist violent attacks on foreigners who have swarmed into our country to fill niches and make a living where locals can’t be bothered, is terrible. Dressing it up with a fancy word like xenophobia is dishonest. However, it would be useful for all South Africans if our borders were not so porous, while simultaneously the formal immigration process was not so tardy and asinine.

This week the court jester, Hlaudi Motsoeneng, popped up to remind us all just how badly our government’s employment policies (aka “cadre deployment” or “jobs for pals”) can go awry. While occupying the top floor, corner office at the national broadcaster, this man was able simultaneously to talk drivel and waste money. Why the Zondo commission thought it would be useful to have him come and testify is unclear. Indeed, at one stage he demonstrated that he cannot distinguish between an invitation to attend a breakfast and an appointment to a business school faculty. The SABC may have set the record in the hotly contested competition for the swiftest destruction of a state-owned enterprise.

It is terrifying how virtually no one in the upper echelons of government seems to be able to do sums and grasp just how bad the state finances are. Commendably regularly the gnomes at National Treasury publish all kinds of fascinating statistics, the simplest of which is a pair of numbers revealing how much money the state collected and distributed in the past month. Inexorably income is falling and spending is rising and so the gap between the two gets larger and larger. The silence from those who we desperately need to do something about it grows louder. To be fair, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni has stepped away from his stove for a moment and actually crafted a policy paper in which allegedly there are some good ideas. It is, however, likely to slip into obscurity quite soon though, as he offended all manner of constituencies by not first getting their approval. It is also quite a long document so that’s another problem right there.

Those of us who enjoyed the privileges of attending schools and colleges where teachers and lecturers came to work every day, writing exams where the pass mark was a real thing, finding and keeping a job, registering with the tax authorities, servicing a mortgage, and paying for utilities are bemused by this story about Zuma and his home. It could offer some fine entertainment with a punch-up between a king and a bank. The key point is that Zuma probably does not have title to the land on which his extensive family compound sits and which he allegedly used as collateral when raising a mortgage with VBS bank. The bank, which was rather dysfunctional, not to say wholly corrupted, in the period when this loan was being arranged will likely need to approach the Zulu King Zwelithini. The monarch insists he alone is the effective owner via a trust of which he is the sole trustee. Lawyers are already licking their lips and paging through the Lamborghini catalogues. Taxpayers are hiding their assets.

Rugby World Cup fever is suddenly building rapidly. Last night I watched two talking heads churn out more planet-threatening carbon dioxide than is safe, in discussing Wales’ chances (Good – apparently). The bokke meanwhile are being praised for getting to Japan early so they can get used to humidity and a slippery ball! The map of Japan showing the venues is alongside the fixture list stuck on the fridge door. And the upholsterer has been booked for a refurbishment of the couch once this is all over.

James Greener

Friday 13^th September 2019