SURELY SOMEONE WANTS TO BE THE MINISTER OF ELECTRICITY?

All the tomfoolery that has unfolded to and through the State of the Nation non-event has been wearisome if not outright depressing. It has certainly provided fertile ground for widespread speculation about what the future holds. Well, it holds a National Budget for a start. Some talking heads feel that government have now arrived at the place between a rock and a hard place and will have to scale back on the free stuff, which of course includes paying thousands what is called a salary but in the absence of productivity is really a grant.

It won’t help those who have long dismissed gold as a not particular rare mineral that’s costly to own and clearly(?) being superseded as a store of value by Bitcoin, to be reminded that the rand price of the yellow metal has doubled in the last 5 years. In the meantime, not only have many “blue-chip” listed shares been tainted by the smell of cooking books, but also now the exchanges they were listed on, are closing. Our civilisations and system were built on the now rare concepts of honesty and trust. Which are now crumbling in the absence of any rule of law. The Marxists won in the end.

It is so confusing trying to follow an American story about energy. It really is time they learned that the liquid fuel we put in our cars is called “petrol” and that the stuff that (mostly) comes out of the ground alongside crude oil is “gas” This is the substance that Europe (and even the USA uses to cook and heat their homes with and which President Biden sabotaged by destroying Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The word “gasoline” has reached its sell by date! It’s so 20^th century.

There are at least two phenomena unrolling in our world that have the potential to make profound impacts on our lives far sooner than we would think possible. Both are happening at an incredible rate. The one is so called artificial intelligence where computers are apparently able to perform in ways that are indistinguishable from what human beings can do, think and say. We are already familiar with Google suggesting the best place for purchases of things we have been researching. But now it is moving to a higher level and the so called “chatbots” are reportedly well on the way to writing Tidemarks every week.  With better punch lines.

The second is the appearance of central bank digital currencies. This is quite a hard topic to understand but is the ultimate goal of authoritarian governments who are sure they can make far better decisions about how to live your life than you do. This week a perhaps deluded individual allowed himself to be implanted with a microchip thereby identifying himself indelibly. He should never lose his credit card again because it is now buried under the skin in is left wrist! He’ll also never be able to pop down to the pub for a quiet beer without everyone knowing. Already we can track our cars and our kids (think cell phone). The notion of the digital currency is quite difficulty to think about but we already mostly have given up using cash and strongly suspect  that our banks readily share whatever they know about us with some bureaucrat. The threat however lies in the idea that if you do something the governments don’t approve of – like vote for the wrong party – access to your account can be frozen and you quickly become a hungry unemployable pawn. Tax evasion will be a thing of the past!

As you read this the second day of the Dusi marathon canoe race is navigating the sewers of outer Durban . Brave folk those. If they fail to stop at the mouth of the Umgeni they could well find themselves in the midst of Chinese and Russian sailors showing off their toys in Exercise Musi II. Our own chaps are blowing up balloons for the visitors to shoot down.

James Greener

Friday 17^th February 2023

 

WELL, SONA WAS A WASTE OF TIME

 

Presumably this “State of the Nation Address” (SONA) jaw-wag by the Leader to his or her subjects was dreamed up by a clipboard wielding PR executive years ago. This is when the nation’s state was reasonable and critically, far better than the previous year. The fearless leader could don some glad rags, drape himself in awards (if any) and invite an “A” list of tax-eating layabouts (aka other politicians and alleged VIPs) to do the same and come and listen politely. Moments of adulation, awe and reverence could be marked with applause. Their reward is a red-carpet moment followed by the serving of viands and liquor normally only enjoyed by the best connected of the criminal classes. For the last few decades however the nation’s state has been awful and deteriorating and the PR executives must surely have melted into embarrassed obscurity.

The shindig however, marches on. And it took place yesterday. Hopefully only those who had temporarily mislaid the remote might have watched.  There was a lot of bad behaviour, the declaration of a State of Disaster and an increase to the cabinet headcount. Same old same old.

A grizzled old stockbroker such as I, is totally amazed what apparently is allowed when it comes to advertising investment services and products. For example, a slick TV production introduces a would-be investor worrying if the smorgasbord of things to buy is safe. A gorgeous and obviously well-off young lady slides into focus to assure the audience that everything they sell “is licenced””. Wow. Just Wow. A big selling point is often how easy it is to begin buying your first investments. Even the Springbok rugby captain apparently uses his mobile phone to open an account and begin trading! What happened to FICA? That wodge of state sponsored paperwork designed to give the illusion that the government has your back when it comes to investment risk. Has all that “proof of residence” stuff reduced financial crimes? NO?!  But “Why not?”  you cry. “Look! It has a certification no older than 3 months!”

And then there is RICA which supposedly enables government in the name of crime control to link people to their mobile phone numbers? Really? Any cell phone company emporium or “hole in the wall” shoppe will today sell you a “pre-RICAed” SIM card. For a few pennies and no questions asked. This was the week when the national broadcaster claimed to have begun to seek TV licence payments from all users of computer monitors that are TV capable.

Do the big corporates still employ compliance officers? About as useful as the men who install direction indicators on a BMW.

The recent apparent attempt to murder Eskom CEO Andre De Ruyter by poisoning him is bizarre and medieval. His later revelation that the two cops who came along to find out what happened and presumably begin investigating the crime, were totally clueless lends a typical weird and amusing South African theme to the very serious incident. The serious side is it demonstrates the ruthless and dangerous criminal culture that has infiltrated the electricity utility. Or indeed anywhere large sums of state money are loosely controlled. Government, who actually is as clueless as those cops when it comes to running any commercial entity are throwing money at the problem in a not very effective attempt to keep the lights on, the trains running, and the sewage controlled. Of course, the cockroaches are coming out of the dark.  

It is time for this nation to stop thinking it has a permanent lien on the Nobel Peace Prize and start treating the bad guys with less respect. Let’s start with those would-be poisoners and have them behind bars for 10 years before the end of this month. It’s time to go and fetch the Guptas and bring them home overland in the back of a Bedford for a brisk trial with courts working a full 8 hours a day and waffling lawyers silenced. No more Mr Nice Guy and Human “Rights” for these people. Apparently, the Robben Island Jail is deteriorating from lack of maintenance. Perfect. Winter is coming. And disconnect the WiFi.as well as the power --- oh wait!

James Greener

Friday 10^th February 2023

BUT RWANDA ARE PAYING ARSENAL TO DO THE SAME THING

 The US share markets obviously approve of the news that the so-called Tech companies have been firing staff at an unprecedented rate. The Nasdaq index is up almost 20% for the year. Remember when computers were supposed to help everyone get along with fewer staff?  Don’t cry for the nerds though. It has been noted that many of the newly unemployed are finding jobs with Chinese companies. Remember this is the poster child sector for having staff who have no idea where the office is. Even our own All Share is powering upwards despite no good news about how industry are coping with critical shortage of power. And the US have raised interest rates again.

It’s three years since our government gave in to international peer pressure and declared a State of Disaster. Wise men (and women) warned at the time that little good would come of it and in particular, worried that politicians, once they tasted the heady potion of unfettered power, would only come back for more. How right they were.  That time the panic was about  a medical infection event that we were assured  would depopulate the world in weeks.  This time it is a loss of control of the nation’s electrical power supply(or what is left of it)  to criminal elements which only mobilisation of the army can possibly restore! Hang on a minute Cyril. Let’s try a few other things before letting the cabinet loose! Last time they banned liquor and tobacco sales and open toed sandals and take-away food. None of which had any effect on a rather nasty respiratory bug. Now at least start by firing the Prat in the Hat for impersonating a police minister, and please dump the ex-president’s ex-wife who refuses to say what happened last time. Then send the cops in to fix the crime -- it’s their job, isn’t it?

Here is a little scene we would all love to witness. It takes place in the Presidential Suite at the Union Buildings in Pretoria. President Frogboiler is hard at work with his rare cattle bloodstock book. The phone warbles and he answers it. From our side the conversation goes like this. He listens for a long time to what is obviously a very excited woman shrieking. Eventually he manages to slow her down and asks a question: “Totty what Spurs?” The answer does not seem to help and he moves on to another question “How much did you say?” His next question seems to puzzle the other party. “Why?” and there is a bit of a silence. What we all wish to hear next would be a snort of derision and the following. “No. No.  Don’t be silly Lindiwe” “ It’s this Spurfowl Ham outfit that should be paying us. Do you know what English soccer players get paid? Be a good girl and run along and put this nonsense out of your mind and I won’t tell the cabinet about it”. 

It is well known that it is only the supply of diesel fuel to Eskom’s generators is which helps to keep (some) of the lights on. But it is a costly business especially when Petro SA – the state oil company—are reportedly supplying the fuel at a premium price! This seems intrinsically wrong!  Let’s hope that Eskom do at least insist on not  paying the taxes and retail margins.  

Some very dim people have come to the conclusion that pretty much everything we do to make life worth living is heating the planet. They are undoubtedly correct when they point out that heat leaks from ovens and hot plates and indeed all household appliances. In fact when the cooked food is taken out and served it also cools down and can melt glaciers and stuff leading ultimately to “endangering your health”.  But wouldn’t not eating also be rather bad for your health too? After all the amazing scientific and engineering progress of the last few centuries why on earth are so many of us behaving like ignorant morons?

To beat England 2-1 in the ODI series was very satisfactory.  The heat wave has returned to Durban so the Sharks vs Stormers fixture is going to be sweaty tomorrow.

James Greener

Friday 3^rd February 2023