DELIVERANCE

The joys of the original internet are eroding steadily. Advertisements are becoming ubiquitous and deeply annoying. One website after another insists that we consent to receiving “cookies” and despite acquiescing, not one biscuit has so far been delivered to my inbox. The government has introduced FICA, RICA and now POPI “for my safety and protection” and still the crooks seem to be able to steal anything including my identity. Indeed, the high profile business man Tokyo Sexwale, who must have a raft of IT people ensuring his on-line security, has reportedly fallen victim to a version of the notorious Nigerian 419 scam. In his case the numbers were so large that not a single journalist seemed capable of writing them down in words correctly. In their excitement at using the unit of quadrillion they ignored the rather trivial trillion number! President Biden meantime has decided literally to give away trillions of dollars to the US population because they need it after the terrors and rigours of the virus. Truly little has been said about where this kind of money will come from, although in the short term it will undoubtedly have to be borrowed. Which should theoretically push up the price of money (interest rates) over the next few years. If politicians ever do answer this question, it usually begins by making heroic claims about rapid economic growth which they say will result in oodles of tax being collected and everything will be wonderful again. Who are we to remain sceptical? The Post Office’s history and business legacy coupled to its current management and ownership structure (it is one of those dreaded State Owned Enterprises) renders it totally uncompetitive versus the numerous courier businesses that have sprung up in the past few decades. More pertinently the lockdowns have triggered huge growth in demand for short term and distance deliveries, particularly perishables. During the summer when everyone was in the pool, phoning for a scooter to deliver a bag or two of ice for the drinks was not uncommon. However, this sort of thing may be in breach of the regulation which grants SAPO a monopoly for deliveries of parcels weighing less than a kilogram. Imagine waiting a few weeks for the postman to pitch up with your pizza. Very slowly and with circumspection those who care about our health are constructing and following a program to vaccinate South Africans against the Covid Virus. Frankly the confusion, disinformation and misleading maths surrounding this subject has succeeded (perhaps deliberately?) in rendering any personally held opinion quite obsolete after just a few clicks through the deluge of documents on the interwebs. The only unanswered question that still bothers me though, comes down to why is it not possible to allow successfully vaccinated people to return to their old lives? They can now neither infect nor be infected. Oh, and, are there really only 720 000 people over the age of 60 in the Western Cape? President Cyril appeared in front of the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into Allegations of State Capture this week. Like the hundreds (thousands?) of others who have warmed the witness chair in the past three and a half years, nothing the President vouchsafes, however shocking, will result in any disciplinary action. The Commission has revealed that “The Allegations” were and are true. It is long past time for the Public Prosecutor to call people in to be measured up for orange overalls. But so far … nothing. This commission has become a classic boondoggle. [an unnecessary, wasteful, or fraudulent project] Reportedly the USA is asking the IOC for a slot for Flag Football in the summer Olympics. While the game looks similar to tackle football, with passing and receiving, there is little protective equipment needed. Play stops when a defender pulls a cloth flag from the waist of an opponent. Presumably because his shorts have fallen off? But not to mock too loudly. The status of our own three main ball sports is dire This is only partially due to Covid related travel and social restrictions but also the presence of and interference by far too many men whose game time in life has been a tiny fraction of their meetings time. James Greener Friday 30th April 2021

SNIFFER BLOG

Our Marxist government has for the second time in so many years sent an unambiguous message to the skilled people of this country. Last year it was medical services, now it is engineers. In both cases a team of specialists from Cuba has been called in to perform the tasks. Our local graduates in these disciplines are clearly not trusted, respected or valued by their government. Incredible. It’s a fair bet that money is flowing in unusual directions as well. At last, there is a nice story that has come out of the Covid-19 drama. It is reported that dogs are being trained to sniff out individuals who are infected by the virus. Not only is this way more pleasant (and indeed quicker) than the “probe up the nose and wait 24 hours while someone cultures the bugs and counts them” method. Hopefully it is also less prone to yielding the false positive result which bedevils the so-called “gold standard” PCR test. Even a brief browse through the literature on this topic soon submerges one in a morass of maths in trying to understand the impacts on the models of incorrect results. It’s not simple. It has already been noted that government have not published any updated vaccination counts for some time. It seems that we are in a so-called “pause” phase similar to what other countries have imposed, perhaps in reaction to doubts about the jab. In our case it may also be that we simply do not have the doses of the vaccination required to begin a full-blooded campaign. As has happened many times during this pandemic the truth and the facts have gone AWOL. In fact, everyone, including the Cabinet are increasingly behaving as if the virus is no longer a deadly serious threat. Which is great, because for most of us it is not. So far, the tussle about pay increases between Minister Senzo Mchunu and Reuban Maleka, an Assistant General Manager of the Public Servants Association has been peaceful and gentlemanly. In particular, the minister’s 500-word speech to deliver the message “we are broke – forget it” is a gem of its genre. AGM Maleka, however, is very conscious that his own job depends on negotiating highest salaries and best working conditions for his 235 000 members. There is no small irony in Maleka’s complaint that “Public Servants can no longer pay the price for the country’s economic woes fuelled by rampant fraud, corruption and mismanagement.” For surely it is the civil servants who are largely responsible for these three ills when it comes to the use of public resources? His other difficulty is that if a great number of his members do go on the threatened strike, most of us wont notice, as service levels are already awful to non-existent. Starlink is the name for Mr Elon Musk’s satellite-based internet connectivity project. As usual with most ideas from this African American who recently but briefly enjoyed the rank of being the planet’s richest person, it cuts straight to the nub of the problem of providing ubiquitous affordable internet connectivity. Seems like a good plan. But here in South Africa, the race police are vigilant and have pointed out that the company’s ownership profile does not meet this nation’s required mix of blacks, women, disabled and youth. Musk is therefore unlikely to get the required licences. And once again ideology drags us all down. As does a most peculiar and alarming squabble that has broken out among C-list nonentities about “tribalism”. Which seems to be a subset of racialism. It’s all too silly. Africa is really not ready for many of the new toys available to the rest of the world. It seems that only some 1500 electric cars have so far been sold on the continent. The problem I would guess is that electricity itself can sometimes be scarce while the network for delivering liquid fuels for transportation have been developed over the last 100 years and are rather good. It was rather nostalgic to come across Rhodes playing in the Varsity Cup on TV the other day. Certainly a great deal rarer that Sharks v Bulls which is getting tedious. James Greener Friday 23rd April 2021

SICK OF LOCKDOWN? HERE, FILL IN THESE FORMS.

Our currency is doing champion-like things. It is at one-year highs against most major currencies and pretty soon the whole nation will be able to afford cars like that Rolls Royce SUV, as its price softens below the R16m that Mrs Mpisane has paid. This lady is an extremely successful contractor serving municipalities in the Durban area. Reportedly she has her friendly personal tax collector’s phone number on speed dial. Also looking perky are the US share markets where indices like the Dow and the S&P are in virgin territory. So really it would appear that there is absolutely nothing to worry about. Covid has been conquered, Presidents Biden and Ramaphosa have led their countries into broad new uplands free of concern and despondency where violence and crime no longer worry investors and the Proteas are back. No wait. Not so much that last one perhaps. And the first one is a puzzle. Come to think of it, the middle one is not altogether true either. The most terrifying instruments in the markets (crypto currencies) are setting new highs too. So, it’s situation normal. Confusion reigns. And to confirm the normality, the government has published a raft of regulations to read and forms to complete for anyone who employs a domestic worker. Naturally, once completed, the forms together with a copy of the employment contract need to emailed to our caring and vigilant state. Just how this will aid anyone on this most menial and vulnerable rung of the employment ladder is unclear. It’s really despair-inducing how socialists believe that it’s possible to regulate everyone into positions of security and wealth. Just before beer time today our nation will move quietly into phase 2 of its Covid vaccination program. It comes with a fancy Compensation Fund – paid for entirely by the state (don’t ask) -- and an electronic vaccination data system (EVDS). Whether any other associated things are yet in place is unclear. What about at least one manufacturer’s request for an indemnity against patient claims in case of unexpected side effects? Or a plan to speed up the “jab” rate so that the nation reaches a meaningful vaccination level before something else catches our attention. Over 60s can now register online and expect to receive an SMS telling them what next to do. This technology stuff is just amazing – provided the power stays on. Talking of which, President Cyril’s skipped his usual monthly fireside chat in which he rolls the National State of Disaster on by a further 30 days All we got his week was a brief statement from NDZ who had been given no goal posts to shift. She must be simply itching to ban the sale of something. One of the important indicators that our poor embattled country needs to display as a sign of a possible recovery is to shut down SAA completely and immediately. This week it appointed a new Chief Executive Officer. Mr Thomas Kgokolo’s position is only interim mind you, but he comes with an impressive list of qualifications, sadly none of which reveal any experience of running an airline during one of the most challenging periods for that industry ever. Its unfair on the man, the remaining alleged employees of the utterly moribund enterprise and the shareholders. And all this is ordered so that cabinet ministers can be pampered by other civil servants when they travel at the front of an aircraft (with reportedly dodgy permits and licences) to a meeting that should never have been called. Its alarming to realise that the people who run two major motor sports have no idea that their fan base and viewership overlap. This week again the two events of Formula 1 and Moto GP all but clash. Why? And while I am sure to be shouted down by proper fans, the way in which European football organisers have packed their calendars this year is rapidly making at least one viewer lose interest. Obviously, the fear of having to take a salary cut meant that no governing body could contemplate dropping or pruning even one heavily sponsored tournament. Tedium threatens. Not to say player injury. James Greener Friday 16th April 2021

SUBTLE AND UNOBTRUSIVE

It is undoubtedly true that the Bull is the beast in control of most markets these days. It seems that everyone should be making money from their investments despite the supposed huge and savage blow to the economy by Covid and its cohorts. Nothing is easy to explain. The matter of inoculating the population of the world against Covid-19 is spawning plenty of issues. The simpler ones to understand concern the problems of manufacture, distribution and sale of so much stuff to so many people in so many places. This is undoubtedly a mega project for which collaboration between public and private resources makes a great deal of sense. Unfortunately, many governments including our own, are not yet ready for that and are reluctant to give up the power to control the population that they have enjoyed for more than a year now. The next area of contention is largely a personal one and concerns the debate about the different vaccines that are available. What most of us probably want is a single dose of something that has no nasty side effects, and which would ensure that we can’t be infected by the virus in any of its variants for a very long time. It should absolutely enable us to resume life and visit grandchildren anywhere in the world. The third and thorniest problem is proving that someone has received the treatment and getting officials to accept that they pose no health threats to anyone else. Even the UK Prime Minister has failed this last test by telling an inoculated questioner that they can’t yet go and visit granny. Already (absent the forgery problem) the proposal of a “vaccination passport” is running into difficulties with the civil liberties crowd, who probably have not grasped the extent and power of current facial recognition technology where a computer knows exactly who you are and where you have been. A few months ago, Tidemarks offered a jocular solution to this problem by proposing the use of the subcutaneous ID tags similar to those we use to label our pets. New Zealand are proposing to introduce a subtle and unobtrusive tattoo. Though judging by some of the All Black rugby players, finding space will be tricky. It’s hard to decide whether the bureaucrats who enabled the following press release are providing us, their employers, value for money: “The release of the request for proposal (RFP) documentation for Bid Window 5 (BW 5) of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) has been delayed, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) has confirmed”. Oh yes? A rather worrying trend of state entities refusing to pay for high tech services rendered can be noticed. Whether this is because there really is no money left in the kitty or it’s simply entitlement culture on display is unclear. Equally concerning is that the response from the defaulting entities like the Police and Eskom that not having the disabled systems would make little difference in their operations. Really? Why did you buy them in the first place? President Cyril is also not averse to playing the ‘we are poor and deserve cheap vaccination drugs” card. Still the government refuses to accept that the only route left meaningfully to reduce its fiscal deficit is to attack the expenditure side. Today’s news is that the taxman has brought Judge Denis Davis onto the payroll to help them track down the tax dodgers. That’s good and fine but I doubt it will have as much effect on the deficit as will firing half the civil servants who drive desks. One also wonders how all those who retained the learned judge in his earlier days to craft avoidance schemes will feel when they find him on the other side of the desk at SARS asking question about where the money is? I must be missing some really good stuff by not watching more cricket these days. Certainly, I have missed that Chris Morris is in such good form that he has set the record for the most expensive player in the forthcoming IPL at R33million.. Good gracious. This even compares with the sort of money the English Premier League stars get to take home. James Greener Friday 9th April 2021

LEAVE BEFORE ABSENCE?

The price of electricity rose by more than 15% this morning. This increase will undoubtedly soon ripple through the economy with awful effect. Just ask the 600 people who were axed at SABC. The reluctance of the relevant minister to meet with private industry to explain the logic behind the 4-day mini-ban of liquor sales shows that its not just we boozers who are puzzled. A sales ban of this duration is surely utterly ineffective in limiting the kind of gatherings that are suspected to cause increases in the rate of infection by the dreaded virus. One suspects that it is merely a shameless display by government of how a year of practice in exercising emergency powers will not go to waste. Car accidents always peak over the Easter weekend so rather than bluff again that traffic authorities will work around the clock, just use the lockdown laws. And anyway someone has discovered a loophole in the speed trapping legislation! The pictures of increasingly puny machines trying to shift a massive ship wedged tightly between the banks of the Suez Canal were undeniably funny but somehow the behemoth was prised free far quicker than forecast and those who had taken bets on sharp corrections in the prices of various commodities had to scamper for cover. And talking of bets, way back in 2018, Free Market Foundation president Leon Louw bet the then SAA CEO, Vuyani Jarana, that his three-year turnaround plan for the airline would not work. Louw was right and this week Jarana has had to pony up R100 000. Easy money. Meanwhile we have yet another conundrum from minister JDZ who is confident that renaming places helps to increase the speed of service delivery of government service to citizens. Not much is offered in the way of evidence to support this conjecture beyond a vague claim that civil servants whose employer’s name incorporates the magical and iconic name of Winnie Mandela will be spurred to work harder and smarter. The best comment so far to this idea came from a parent who plans to rename his children to see if it goads them into doing their homework. Does one need to have the brain and thought processes of a politician to understand the 30-day firing process that President Cyril is employing to trim the numbers in his party. Is it a compassion thing, allowing the soon to be unemployed person to dash around the office pocketing everything not nailed down and to schmooze the payroll offices to change their name and keep them aboard the gravy trail? Or is it to allow them time to assemble sufficient alibis to demonstrate that “I was not there. It was not me.”? I am not alone in being unable to grasp the workings of Bitcoin. I’m certainly keen to have assets that the taxman and other nosy commission scroungers can’t find out about but the big problem for me is it still needs to be bench marked against conventional currencies (or even gold) and it seems to be heart-stoppingly volatile. But a local website quotes its Rand price to 10 significant figures. Really? Yesterday Moody’s, the Credit Ratings Agency, ceased issuing its opinions on whether the SA Land Bank was a worthwhile outfit to lend money to. As usual the reports of these events is a tad confused because in fact the organisation being rated usually pays the agency for the rating and if that organisation stops paying its subscription, then the rating reports cease. Indeed, Landbank have already intimated that they have terminated the agency’s services. Nevertheless, it is a sure bet that the Landbank loan book is rat infested and stuffed with loans which will never be repaid, whatever reasons Moody’s offer. Transport Minister Fikile Mabalula chose April Fool’s Day to upgrade his long running plan for streamlining the taxi industry. The plan involves using public money to bribe a notoriously lawless and outright hazardous industry to accept a raft of regulation. It does shift astonishing numbers of people amazing distances and Mabalula admitted that the railways are now largely inoperable. Governments, however, are usually lethal when it comes to interfering in markets. The Light Blues for the Boat Race please. James Greener April Fool’s Day 2021