Friday 18 December 2020

MORE INCONSISTANT INSISTING

Two rather important prices in the global markets are declining. The first is the price of US 10-year bonds. The second is the price of a US dollar. The temptation is to attribute this to the growing realisation that the USA has elected a new president. One who tends towards the idea that government spends money more wisely than its individual citizens. After 4 years of a president who held the opposite view, buyers of instruments where the government has influence are perhaps holding back. The ladies and gentlemen of our Cabinet simply just don’t get it, do they? Whatever the reasons might be, including forces beyond their control, the amount of tax income coming into the National Treasury is much much less than they had been warned to expect. And yet they still spend. The latest rolling 12-month total revenue figure for government is R1.2 trillion. In and of itself this might not be a problem except that across the ministry corridor, in the section that dispenses the money for the state’s expenditure, the current equivalent figure is R1.8 trillion. Not only is this 50% greater than the income, it is also R340bn greater than two and a half years ago. In this period of severe recession, even before the virus appeared and our leaders laid waste to the economy, state expenditure annual growth has been north of 10%pa. Stop it ministers. Just stop it! The calamity inherent in these terrifying but simple facts fails to reflect that most civil servants have been largely even more unproductive since the Corona Virus sent them to work from home. This is the topic and his proposed solutions that we need urgently to hear addressed by President Cyril. Not only is this economic situation causing conditions that are starving more South Africans to death than ever the virus will kill, but his lack of vision and leadership is promoting the most egregiously stupid behaviour amongst certain members of this team. From beneath his hat the Minister of Police, Bheki Cele has ordered armed policemen on to beaches where only sparse groups of white folk are rapidly reddening in the sun. To do what? Presumably to protect the virus from being harmed. After all, that tiny bug has helped so many connected cadres collect carloads of cash that it’s worth protecting. In the meantime, the minister of transport has suggested that motorists sound their horns at noon everyday this holiday to remind us that people die in traffic accidents. The scuttlebutt on the internet is that we as a nation failed to make the payment to secure any doses of Covid vaccines. Arrangements are being made for the Solidarity Fund to come up with some cash but that will cover only 10% of our requirements. Allegedly the state itself has directed all its reserves towards the SAA bail-out. That’s classy governance! But fake news is a scourge in all these sorts of stories. Like the survey that South Africans spend more time sleeping than any nation on earth. This is undoubtedly wrong as everyone knows that we spend more time hanging about in queues than any other activity. Waiting for a government service rarely takes less than 2 hours, often because vital pieces of information about what you need or should have done prior to joining the line are only revealed as progress towards the head is made. The particularly dehumanising element is the bum-shuffle where one’s place in the queue is reserved only by one’s posterior. A seat pre-warmed by a fellow supplicant for our government’s attention is not that pleasant. Tidemarks now has sufficient white hair and gravitas sometimes to be offered a free jump to the head. Talking of white hair raises the observation that shopping malls are this year free of Santa Claus grottos and bewildered terrified infants. They are also pretty free of shoppers too. We all talk wistfully of returning to “normal” one day and perhaps we shall. But in the meantime I wish you a very merry and safe and peaceful Christmas. James Greener Friday 18th December 2020

Friday 11 December 2020

WHO CAME FIRST? THE CAR OR THE DRIVER?

Even though the rand has improved as much as 20% from its lows set in the second quarter it still is not up for the 2020 calendar year. The body blows it received in the way of ratings downgrades and the ceaseless story line of corruption and theft in both the public and private sectors have proved hard to counter. Our currency has halved in value in a decade, as even the most well-meaning investors in and supporters of our peerless piece of Africa became disillusioned. Our poor government is flailing around trying to identify, understand and control everything happening out there in the real world which threatens their grand plan of the National Democratic Revolution planned for South Africa. The main objective is of course finding things to tax because these revolutions don’t come cheap Their problem is that citizens are far nimbler, abler and cleverer that even the grandest and largest of committees stuffed with well fed and clothed politicos and cadres, and in the time it takes to launch and think up a dreary name for their next ponderous control structure, the privateer has written an app, spotted a gap or founded a church and fed the family. For example, at this time of Covid-19 vaccinations there has been much talk about starting a state-owned pharmaceutical manufacturing facility. A sharp-eyed journalist has this week pointed out that there is already such a thing, founded at the height of the HIV panic. Apparently, it produces almost nothing. It’s probably best that we as a country stay out of the sharp end of this business. Oh, and close that outfit. Pretty much everything, with one exception, that we have been told about Covid-19 has turned out to be wrong. The exception is that contracting a heavy dose of this infection is extremely unpleasant and possibly fatal. Fortunately, in South Africa the number of people infected to such an extreme extent has been far fewer than forecast. Why this is so, is simply another thing where the explanations are probably incorrect. But it is indubitably true that the pandemic has opened undreamed of pathways for the accumulation of power and wealth. The latest is of course the arrival of vaccinations -- treatments which we were assured would take years to develop—but which this week were administered to actual patients. Reportedly one of these recipients in England was a man named William Shakespeare, which sounds suspiciously like a marketing ruse. To date, 10 billion doses of the various vaccines have been ordered and since this number is greater than the world’s population it shows that rich bullies have muscled their way to the front of the queue and huge profits beckon. This early indicator of the way in which the allocations of the medicine might happen, prompts Tidemarks to suggest that everyone who is “jabbed” also be “chipped” to provide confirmation of their probable infection-free status. Fierce opposition to this invasion of privacy is likely, but if the recommendation that our leaders and their advisors be among the first to be vaccinated (and of course chipped) were to be followed, it would show their commitment to and belief in the safety of their plans for the rest of us. A positive side effect would be that anyone with a chip should in future escape all the testing and quarantining business. This would also speed up airport queues for all of us. We might also find out all manner of interesting things! Now while all this biochemistry/ epidemiology/ virus malarky is going on, the modern world and free markets continue to gnaw away at the socialist utopia being concocted by our leaders and betters. The internet is just one of many reasons why the SABC is in dire financial trouble and although communications minister Stella Ndabeni-Abrahams identified that “a large proportion of the problems are market-related” she still insisted that a government remodel was the solution. Hers is the ministry that has donned the jester’s robes and told the world that in future international entertainment companies will be responsible for collecting TV licence fees from their South African customers and for carrying 30% South African content on their channels. So funny. Not a word about what customers might want. That tour by the English cricketers to SA was a mess and a dreadful embarrassment. And probably yet another example of Covid information misused. And F1? A rookie with shoes too big to fit into Hamilton’s car nearly wins the GP because the maestro is off having a Covid moment. Eish! James Greener Friday 11th December 2020 1 Similar to what we ask the vet to do for our pets by installing an ID tag .