MAID IN CHINA

The writing is on the wall for the thousands of us who have tried to make a living from convincing other people that we know what is happening in the world’s markets. The truth is they are incomprehensible to everyone. Who, for example can explain why anyone would lend money to the massively indebted and probably bankrupt US government for 10 years at a mere 2.5% interest per year? Closer to home there is the puzzle about why a bunch of folk in Geneva would agree to a deal which the counterparty – a rather dodgy mining house – have described as being “very difficult to explain to the public”. It also doesn’t help when the house cheerful admits that they will be using the initial $2m of the deal to “clean our dirty laundry”. And in a different sector yet another giant international bank has been lured into believing that the South African business of lending money to poor people is profitable, and has offered to relieve Old Mutual of their shares in Nedbank. The share prices of both companies rose satisfactorily.

So where can we put our money in the hope and expectation that it will enjoy capital growth and provide income for life’s little necessities like beer and fishing rods? This week the inflation statistics were published and it does rather look as if that particular enemy of savings is dormant at present. This suggests that both growth and income expectations should probably be adjusted downwards to this “new normal”. This has in fact taken place and for almost a year the All Share has meandered along in a relatively narrow channel occasionally teasing us with the promise of a healthy bull, and yet always letting the bear out when things got too heated. The inflation numbers also did nothing to help the cause of the strikers whose leaders continue to sacrifice their member’s jobs and incomes in return for political recognition and seats at the high table. The cruel fact – dreadful examples of profligacy and lavish executive excess aside – is that labour is in oversupply and therefore its aggregate cost can not rise. Some of us believe that the oversupply is almost entirely an effect of government meddling in the market. But that is another whole debate.

Also in serious oversupply are our president’s consorts. Emerging from the luxurious sharp end of the SAA plane that took him to China, the pres was followed by a lady described as his fiancée. Undoubtedly the welcoming committee had been briefed beforehand with an already lengthy list of names, pictures and details of the several women who are already the clients of the South African President’s Spousal Support Office. The arrival of another candidate must have caused a flap even amongst the inscrutable hosts waiting on the tarmac. Presumably after the pleasantries were over they managed to ship President Zuma and his entourage safely into the city without encountering the amazing 100km long traffic jam that is reported to have gridlocked Beijing for days.

I was less fortunate. An unknown but presumably serious incident resulted in the need to close completely the south bound carriage way of the very busy N2. Traffic was directed down a small and little-used off ramp and a massive tail-back ensued. Immediately, the emergency lane was adopted by drivers who believed their journey was more important than everyone else’s. This forced the minibus taxis on to the grassy shoulder where progress was somewhat but not totally impeded by the concrete culvert. Adding to the delay was a toll booth of only two lanes that guarded the off-ramp. Every vehicle was obliged to stop and pay the appropriate but unusually tiny toll. Not one of the myriad of uniformed officials witnessing this stupidity had the wit or authority to notice that the economic cost of a 5 km traffic back up on a major arterial was far greater than the loss of revenue that opening the tollgate would cause.

I will be watching this week’s Test against the Wallabies as it happens but only because good friends have promised support and strong drink. These are dark and terrible times for SA rugby.

James Greener

27^th August 2010

THE BEAR STRIKES

So far this month the all share index has given back almost two thirds of last month’s amazing gains. Volume, however, is rather muted.  Bonds on the other hand are in great demand as investors scramble to lend money to the government. The long bond price index has traced out one of its steepest rises in recent history, gaining 4.5% in a week. I certainly never expected this but it makes me very worried about buying now. The so-called GOVI exchange traded fund is the easiest way for the small investor to get this exposure and you may have noted that it has appeared in the new highs column almost every day recently.

Even after the election of a worker-friendly government sixteen years ago, this country has continued with its policy of paying most of its civil servants rather poorly. Of course the new government has enthusiastically continued the program of rewarding loyal cadres with an appointment to an ever growing upper echelon of bureaucrats who are definitely paid far more than they are worth, which in many cases is zero. However, perhaps because politicians are jealous of their skills, professionals appear to be particularly ill treated by the state. The present unresolved wage negotiations have triggered strike action. A quiet and dignified silent picket line is neither the South African way nor all that effective at attracting reporters and cameramen. Singing and dancing is more our style. Unfortunately a few of the teachers – and probably a number of rent-a-crowd – have been mobilised by union leaders and are travelling the city in busses from school to school. Their objective at each venue is to terrify the school into closing and it has been successful. Several of my family are in the teaching business and the stress of dealing with rumours and stories of where the mobs will next appear has been just as bad as the actual confrontation and police presence in helicopters and vans. The sole light-hearted point is that some of the chanting throng are armed with golf-clubs rather than pick handles. Presumably they have a tee off time booked for later in the day.

The tragedy of the SA mining industry gets ever more dreadful. This week saw the government admitting that even it could not understand the tangle of laws and regulations that it has imposed and it has (illegally even!) suspended the whole shebang until it can sort it out. No exploration or mining permit applications will be processed until the clowns at the department of mines grasp that exploring for minerals on a property where a mine has been operating for decades does not make any sense.

In the meantime it is reported that the government is “devising a labour-absorbing economic growth strategy” that will provide growth of about 7% per year. Oh dear. The sole thing a government can grow is its level of interference and regulation neither of which promote or encourage individuals to try and start a business of providing a product or service that they can sell to others. Just look at what the forthcoming carbon tax will do to the car industry and will not do for carbon dioxide.

Tomorrow, when events unfold in Soweto and John Smit collects his 100^th cap I shall be on holiday. I really can’t face the ordeal of watching the ‘bokke these days. It is just too stressful. I shall either be fishing or if too windy, as seems likely, I shall fly my kite. I can only hope that the Ellis Park curse on the All Blacks extends to the FNB stadium. Only late tomorrow will I call somebody and ask them for the score. Here in the kingdom the logistics of getting from the test match on TV at home to Kings Park for the Province clash in just 10 minutes is causing much anxiety.

James Greener

20^th August 2010

WHO’S STEALING THE STEEL?

All over the world governments and similar meddlesome and larcenous organisations have for decades felt that their nation’s iron and steel businesses are too strategic to be left to the whim of market forces. Locally the appalling policy of political resource allocation, together with an incomprehensible loyalty points system of Bs and Es are extra factors facing the industry. This week ArcelorMittal published a self-congratulatory announcement from which it appears they are going for double platinum status in that loyalty program. The deal itself is worth R9bn and the list of beneficiaries include impeccably well-connected names, some of whom may well prove useful in the small matter of a difficulty that the company has over some mineral rights.

One rather timid “proper” analyst has suggested that this deal might perhaps dilute existing shareholder earnings a tad! This improper analyst assures you that it already has. Who do you think has paid for the expensive advisors and sponsors who, after a full year on the job, have come up with a deal that still refers to vague entities such as “a women-led consortium”? This suggests that the scrap for the spoils will go on for some time yet. Interestingly, the document also asks the government to guarantee that all the loyalty points that Mittal should earn with this deal will not be cancelled if, at some stage in the future, the prize-winners sell their shares and run.

With even the Standard Bank worrying that “pressure on public finance will escalate” those folk who enhance their lifestyles by nibbling on the public purse will have to take larger bites as the purse begins to shrink. This development has been noted by the numerous civil service employees who have been striking and marching and dancing in pursuit of better salaries. Their posters and spokesmen have pointed out the very large gap between even the official incomes of ministers and workers, although their complaint that a policeman’s wage packet weighs less than his service pistol is a bit puzzling.

Again the element carbon is grabbing the headlines. This story concerns a grubby bag of dirty-looking stones of dubious origin that was passed around at a dinner party. The party was held in South Africa in 1997 and was attended by grubby celebrities of equally dubious origin who are now squabbling in a Dutch court about whose motives and intentions was the purest when it came to dealing with these stones. Facts are in short supply.

Given the possible failure of global wheat harvests in the coming months perhaps there is an opportunity for those municipalities wondering what to do with that large area of well-irrigated flat space inside their new but little used world cup stadium. The local soccer sides have declared that most of the stadiums are too large for their purposes and they will be returning to their old familiar playing fields. A similar disappointing comment was made by City Lodge Hotels in their report this week. They are unhappy with the way FIFA’s buddies reneged on their promise to send hordes of fans to stay with them. Gradually the evidence is accumulating that playing host to the World Cup has not delivered untold riches to everyone.

Sentimentally, of course my supporter’s heart lies with the teams of Eastern Province whose Colours for shooting I hold with pride, but whose sporting representatives are today alas invisible. Therefore my more than 30 years of living and paying taxes in the Transvaal seem a worthy reason to support the teams of that province. But they do make it hard. For a moment there I thought they had the Sharks by the tail fin. Maybe in a year or so I shall be forced to make another change.

James Greener

13^th August 2010

NO CARBON TAX FOR TAXIS

The most noteworthy global market development at the moment is the weakening of the US dollar. Remember how the euro got hammered when it was suspected that a number of euro zone countries were going to renege on their debts? There was a mad rush to flee that currency and get into dollars. USD was every investor’s new best friend and the US was going to lead the world to a better future. The problem is that matters economic have not really improved much in the US. By some measures it may actually be slipping back into the doldrums again.

There was and is no fundamental reason to prefer the dollar over even the euro with its raft of spendthrift socialist governments running deficits. The US deficit is rather chunky as well and flows into the USD have obviously slowed markedly. The fact that gold is again above USD1200 an ounce shows where some of the smart money is going to

Minister Gordhan made a speech this week in which he appeared to acknowledge that taxpayer’s money had indeed been wasted in the past because he assured his audience that in future this would no longer happen. The 5.5 million individual taxpayers of this nation will remain deeply sceptical of this claim.

Among the wasteful expenditure we can’t see any end to soon, is the enormously expensive legal circus that starts off the instant the state (eventually) fires a corrupt and useless senior employee. Despite the departing individual usually tottering out of the door with wads of cash that they were “awarded” for a job badly done, acrimonious litigation seems to follow almost inevitably. Strangely, the taxpayer is often asked to pay costs for both parties.

The legislation that is growing around the mining industry in this country is in a terrible mess. This week Lonmin were told that they could no longer sell some of the stuff they dig out of the ground along with the platinum that they have been mining for decades. It seems that the stuff belongs to some previously unheard of outfit that just happened to have a certain piece of paper on which the ink is still wet. Other mining houses with cash to spend are wondering if SA is the best place to do business. Government interference is a fact of life everywhere, but increasingly the problem here seems to be the inconsistent and arbitrary nature of the regulations.

A similar situation of arbitrary regulation is developing around the Carbon Emissions Tax that will be added to the prices of certain types of new vehicle. While almost no politicians or bureaucrats have any idea what carbon is, they do know that they are supposed to dislike it and prevent it and that sounds like a nice little way to earn a spot of revenue.  However, unlike the compliant and peaceable section of the population who will probably not make too much fuss about the tax when they buy a new family saloon, minibus taxi drivers are a very different breed. They are likely to get excited and might start waving weapons. Therefore it has been decided that those vehicles which do the largest mileage every day probably don’t emit too much of that carbon stuff and so can be exempted.

The infamous “Ministerial Handbook” which provides not only the justification but also the obligation for officials to demand top of the range transport and accommodation will soon be amended. Big expensive cars fitted with blue flashing lights will also be deemed carbon-free.

The squabble between two breweries about whether it was fair to advertise that 660ml of beer was less than 750ml of beer has been settled on the side of sense. My Castle quart is already a bit small for the hot days we get down here. And it is the Natal / Transvaal Currie Cup clash this weekend chaps. That will require a quart (or two).

James Greener

6^th August 2010.