FLYING IN THE FACE

Over the past 18 months the average price of an equity share on most of the world’s stock exchanges has out performed the price of an ounce of gold – that barbarous relic that still refuses to disappear even in the face of cryptocurrencies. The latter of course being the latest toy of the bright young things. There are so many questions that are prompted by these facts. None of which can be satisfactorily answered by Tidemarks, himself a relic, although I hope not barbarous. Why for example would the recovery of share prices be coincidental with the era of the pandemic? Indubitably huge swathes of legacy industries have been decimated by the economic collapse caused by the lockdown treatment prescribed by politicians. Then there’s the huge recovery in commodity prices that in particular has provided a lifeline income improvement for the South African government. The sole obvious evaluation parameter of a cryptocurrency is its potential scarcity. This, with exception of land, is probably unique among investable assets but expressing its price in terms of another currency seems recursive and self-denying. Further the promises that it would be beyond the reach of taxes and thieves seem not to be true. The national airline and value destroying institution known as SAA has got a few planes back in the air flying out of Joburg mostly to African destinations and Cape Town. It has never ever been satisfactorily explained by the government why they feel it is so vital to have a so-called “flag-carrier”. Without a business case that withstands scrutiny it is very likely that taxpayers will be supporting the whole sorry mess again very soon. The “sale to private interests” announced with fanfare and excitement a few months ago seems to have been a smoke and mirrors exercise stretching the meaning of private interests to its limits. Here is possibly the ultimate in methods for selecting applicants for employment! The City of Tshwane will recruit 5 095 expanded public works program workers starting in November, using an electronic lottery system – or electronic random draw. The mayor claims that the system will promote transparency in its hiring process. Yes, well, maybe but do Pretoria’s ratepayers get competent officials to deliver services? Or does that no longer matter? This story is a sad commentary on the failure of the education system to equip people with useful and, dare one say, vital skills. All that is needed to enter the lottery is the usual copy of ID and proof of residence – the ubiquitous duo of documents that forms the bedrock of any dealings with bureaucracy. No need to show you can read or write or do sums. That’s what phones are for. “They supported the SABC’s proposal by suggesting an “entirely new public information levy on all non-Sassa (SA Social Security Agency) grant-receiving adults who are able to access public content services of the SABC” be pursued with subscription TV services such as MultiChoice being roped in to help collect licence fees.” This quote from The Sowetan newspaper’s report on hearings held by the department of digital communications on the SABC Bill is revealing. Firstly it divides the population into two neat and clear groups based whether or not citizens receive a monthly grant from the state. And secondly it shows that “roping in” help is an acceptable way to run a government entity. No, its not! It’s another weekend packed with sports to watch on TV with sadly the boks vs All Blacks test perhaps not being as compelling as it should be. Then there are the four “provincial” franchises playing their opening matches in the overseas United Rugby Championship tournament. . And the seemingly never ending IPL cricket circus plays on. Sochi is definitely not the prettiest of Formula 1 street circuits and neither is the spectacle improved by the ill-tempered and callous behaviour of some of the so-called stars of the industry. The event of the weekend however will be the Ryder Cup golf match taking place on another of those windswept American lakeside wannabe links courses. Crowds of up to 45 000 have become a feature of the tournament with their asinine shouts of “go in the hole”! Even the players discard the usual standards of etiquette and protocol. Spectacle supreme. James Greener Heritage Day 2021

PAPERS PLEASE

A gentle amble through the charts reveals that the sort of unanimity of most markets and prices were showing by going silently stronger has ceased. An edginess has appeared and sellers seem to be accepting softer prices for their wares than they were doing a few weeks ago. The talking head fraternity is doubtless earning its crust by offering reasons for this and maybe the dawning realisation that the US President Joe Biden is not as sharp these days as he used to be is making folk nervous. There are plenty of opinions about who actually is running the country with the most powerful military in the western world and that is not a good thing. Down here we are cheerfully in total disagreement about who is holding any reins at all, and every day reveals the existence of yet another advisory committee that presumably exists to tell our elected leaders the facts of life. The level of general and specialist knowledge in areas critical for governance is woeful. Instead of fussing about lowering the voting age we ought to be raising the eligible age for people seeking election to any office. Setting this bar at 40 should ensure that at least some candidates will have had the experience of running a business and meeting a payroll. Skills which ought better to equip them for telling other people what to do. Perhaps they would realise that the sight of a dozen well fed and dressed folk at the ceremonial opening of a toilet or a water tank is not, as they say in the PR industry, “great optics”! Many times in the past 18 months Tidemarks has lamented the apparent absence of consistent and credible “facts” around the current respiratory infection pandemic. The release of costly vaccines has only muddied the waters substantially. And incidentally has also made the maths of calculating the various infection and recovery metrics more difficult and misleading. Crucially, the lack of a swift, reliable and, most of all, accurate test of positive infection is another serious barrier to sensible debate. Particularly among those of us who are not one of the worlds few and true epidemiologists. A perfect example of how clueless we all are, appeared in President Cyril’s address to the nation, when he announced tiny incremental changes to the lockdown criteria. Weirdest of the lot was extending the sales hours for booze by a day. There was also some fiddling with the numbers of people permitted to attend gatherings. Oddly, a rapidly growing behaviour amongst some who have been vaccinated and are therefore less prone to future infection, has been antagonism towards the “unvaccinated” Does this imply a doubt that their treatment will be effective? It is worth noting that even “been vaccinated” is not entirely clear, as the drug manufacturers are now hinting that only lifelong treatment will provide sufficient protection. Nevertheless, Governments are already rewarding the “vaccinated” with so called “vaccine passports” that will allow holders sole or at least preferential access to state services. Would the unvaccinated be permitted to pay tax do you think? Interestingly, some private enterprises are imposing similar access control measures for their employees, clients, and customers. This seems to be an odd time to be hampering their own efforts to regain economic normalcy. It is not easy to determine whether the ‘bokke management’s new habit of firing off videos to the sport’s governing bodies after every test will cause more good than harm. We probably already have gained a reputation for being whining sore losers. Tidemarks never played rugby (unless the under 13B at Prep counts) and despite hours of patient instruction from my fellow topers while currently watching a game, still has a poor grasp of the rules. Especially those concerning what happens inside a scrum and the forward pass rule which appears to ignore geometry and misuses inertia. It would be interesting to know if the videos show any incidents involving the ‘bok side getting away with an infringement. It would also be comforting if the referees referred to the teams by jersey colour and not nationality. It might just add to an air of neutrality. James Greener (vaccinated) Friday 17th September 2021

YOUR PHONE SAYS “NO”

Despite the tax income in July being a meagre R80bn, our National Treasury wonks must be well pleased with a rolling 12-month income of R1.4 trillion. This is a record, and the new minister of finance must have been tempted to order lemonade and sticky buns all round. But perhaps he called for just a half-holiday instead so that no outsider watching would notice the celebration. However, his colleagues in cabinet must have had spies planted because the allocation to the spenders in government was also a record at 1.87trillion. Which resulted in a 12-month deficit of R470billion. Which means that 34% of the money our government spends, is borrowed. This is not good and it will take a lot more than the boomlet we are enjoying in commodity prices to smooth this out. The mining companies know a thing or two about saving for a rainy day and hiding profits in plain sight. The faux lament that “my whole life is on my phone” is no longer a subtle boast of just how tech savvy one is. It’s becoming real. News is that our leaders are about to introduce the so-called Vaccination Certificate Passports which will reside on our smart phones. Tidemarks notes that the combination of the poorly understood pandemic, rapidly growing technological capabilities and throngs of largely clueless politicians and their advisors are turning out to be a toxic mix from which a large and nasty ogre of control is emerging. Governments are behaving badly and are mostly delighted with these developments. But for the rest of us they should ring a huge alarm bell. One quick scan of your phone will provide all the information needed for untrustworthy bureaucrats to deny you access to pretty much anything from a library book to critical care in a hospital. Already Health minister Joe Phaahla has been telling National Council of Provinces that the government was considering banning non-vaccinated people from public amenities. No one could have ever imagined that a state president would end up getting health advice from his equally useless financial adviser. And yet that is what Jacob Zuma has done – although as yet he does not appear to be taking up golf like his mentor Schabir Schaik did after gaining a Medical Parole and being released from prison. Naturally there are many questions that scholars of the law and curious simple taxpayers would like to have answered. Firstly, what exactly ails our jovial dancing ex-president? Advocate Dali Mpofu (SC) who represents JZ has told Judge Piet Koen that Zuma’s medical team and that of the State were “finding each other” and “getting close to each other”. This is picturesque language but since the state’s doctors have not yet been able “to get close to Zuma” facts remain scarce. The key point, in case you’ve not been listening, is that Zuma has a very long-standing court appearance in his diary concerning the usual problem of money flowing in unusual directions. He has little desire to be there. This week the details of a minibus taxi crash that injured its 22 passengers (all school children) emerged. The vehicle was overloaded, unlicensed, and unroadworthy, and the driver did not have a licence! In a textbook example of the pressing need for competency tests for public officials before they are allowed to say something, the Transport MEC for the area reportedly warned that it is “up to users to check (that) the vehicle they hire is safe, competent and licensed”. No mention of this being the job of the authorities who are woefully failing in their traffic control duties. Ironically this week another glaringly badly managed, queue-bound, expensive failure of traffic control appeared. The inordinately lengthy and inefficient process of renewing a driver’s licence may soon be managed(?) by a booking system for an appointment requiring another R250 fee payment. So, one queues and pays to book a place in another queue to pay? No really! Currie Cup final and the next round of the Rugby Championship (have you noted that the All Blacks will be playing the curtain raiser to the bok game?) US Open Tennis finals and the third in a series of back-to-back F1 GPs. Oh, and Premier League resumes and Bafana Bafana are winning. I really must repair the captain’s armchair. James Greener Friday 10th September 2021

COME ON KIDS. YOU CAN DO THIS

Around the middle of August, the country’s share price (the rand exchange rate versus other currencies) began to strengthen. It is now about 5% better than that low point. Everyone will have a theory why this should be, but any suggesting that it reveals an optimism that our leaders know what they are doing is hard to accept. As you read this, the Constitutional Court could be handing down judgement on whether the Municipal elections, scheduled to be held next month, should go ahead or not. The ruling party seems to have failed to get its ducks in a row over this one and are frantically quacking for a postponement. Their unpreparedness is obviously related to their failure to pay staff salaries. Perspicacious commentators are wondering if the era of buying votes with a T-shirt and a bucket of (extremely colonial) fried chicken may be ending. The hospitality and travel industries are probably close contenders for being the sector most damaged by the official reactions and responses to the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic 18 months ago. However, it is education where the disruptions will be felt the longest and deepest. The industry has been forced into the near total abandonment of the simple model of what used to be “talk and chalk”. Resource rich communities quickly adopted internet-based teaching methods, but these too have proved problematical because very few people have ever been trained in these skills. Further, as the options and outcomes changed, the poor souls at the front of the classrooms were expected to cope with the utter horrors of so-called “blended” classes where some learners were still at home and others were back at their obscenely over-sanitised desks. Even worse is the fact that the cast members of this tragedy – and for schools one needs also to factor in the parents – are able, day to day, to select which stage to appear on. Syllabi and planning were early victims of this shambles and undoubtedly the amount of knowledge transfer possible in the sometime savagely curtailed semesters has been minimal. But right at the forefront for fixing this debacle is the KZN Department of Education’s 12-point plan. Its idea is to enlist motivational speakers (!) who will “work on the “pupil’s psyches”. Apparently, this will more adequately prepare them for final exams than drills of times tables, exercises in grammar and writing and poring over diagrams of how the body works. Terrifying. BTW the motivational gurus will reach their huge audiences by radio. Really? And now it seems that the once respected previous Minister of Health Dr Zweli Mkhize has long been infected by the terrible illness so common amongst politicians. That is the inability to distinguish between his own money and government money. It is obviously so easy to do. You pop out to spend a couple of million on stuff for the office and before you know it you find you have bought private household essentials like luxury cars, handbags, and holidays. There is a related nonsense emerging from the assertion that government have sold 51% of SAA, the national airline, to a private consortium. Only it seems that the consortium’s money is not entirely private, and the smoke and mirrors are back at work obscuring exactly who owns what. The simple puzzling question in all of this is just why anyone thinks the nation or indeed anyone needs an airline that is going to start life with a record of appalling management and a debt at lease the size of the herd of our president’s prize buffalos. For folk who can’t see the point of soccer, the sports channels have become a punishment. The next round of matches in the very long sequence of international fixtures that will ultimately determine who gets to attend the World Cup in Qatar next year, has begun. The list of hopeful countries is like a geography quiz answer sheet, and one does marvel that they all apparently have both the manpower and real estate to host 22 people kicking a ball on a flat grassy patch. Like the Faroe Islands, Andorra and San Marino ? James Greener Friday 3rd September 2021