FROZEN OUT

In the UK, shoppers are required to wear a surgical mask. But the assistants behind the counters are not. That apparent utter failure of logic points up the fact that no one really understands very much about this virus that has so changed all our lives in 2020. Every day the internet carries new claims by, for the most part, smart and well-meaning researchers about what they think their data has revealed. The topics range from the fiendishly intricate micro-biology of the bad bugs, to conclusions drawn from the tsunami of statistical counts of everything from deaths to the phone numbers of shoppers and guests in the pub. A moment’s thought about even this last simple record-keeping makes one wonder how the originators think it will work. The man at the Wimpy tells me that he has been told to file these precious records for a year.

But despite the mistakes and miscounts, the indications are that the worrying statistics like infection rate and morbidity counts are in decline, so perhaps this virus thingy is in retreat. It cannot be because we are developing the so-called herd immunity condition. This can be declared only when a huge proportion, probably greater than 70%, of a population is immune to infection. The textbooks suggest that this generally happens only when an effective vaccination is in use and despite the worldwide jingoistic claims, no such thing is yet available.

The huge danger is that governments are going to claim that their lockdown protocols have caused this slowdown in infection rates and therefore are going to insist on retaining their powers to control freedoms. Hard core conspiracy theorists are sure that the local regulation requiring everyone to wear a mask has been a hugely successful attempt to get people to wear a “badge of compliance”. The claimed efficacy of both the lockdown and the masks is unproven and likely false.

How banks actually work, and in particular how the SA Reserve Bank works (hint: not at all like the others) is a mystery to those of us brought up on cartoons of the wild west where the chief plot line was robbing a bank of sacks of cash. Hopefully, MP and EFF office bearer Floyd Shivambu’s imminent doctoral thesis on “South Africa’s transformation policies, legislation and practices as well as ownership and control of JSE-listed companies” will devote a chapter to this topic. Then we can see why he wants to nationalise the Reserve Bank, -- a topic he returned to this week. Has he perhaps earmarked the Governor’s job for himself once he can tag PhD to his name?

Despite having an investigation, the Pretoria Municipality (Tshwane to the cognoscenti) still cannot decide whether there are 1400 or 7000 so-called ghost “employees” to whom it pays a salary each month. Whatever the number is, the wise suggestion that they should not be fired has been made. Firstly, because they are about as productive as the living employees and secondly, they won’t be stealing anything. Just start by firing the ones who pitch up for work and work down that list until the townspeople begin to complain that things are not working. Oh, wait!

Each January the good, the great and the probably dodgy of world economics gather in the snowy enclave of Davos in Switzerland. There, in cosy luxury paid for by taxpayers and shareholders, they warm the cockles of each other’s hearts with theories and stories of how brilliant their models and decisions are. Only, in 2021, the folk who plan this thing have taken advice that the threat of the virus will even then be too large to let the world’s elite meet in one place. What does that say about our own meagre level 2 and 1 scenarios that far out?

The nation that holds the Rugby World Cup has still not managed to arrange a provincial tournament. Another oddity was a “friendly” soccer match between two topflight European clubs where a “lucky” 300 or so fans were permitted entry and crammed into adjacent seats and rows in a stadium capable of taking tens of thousands. And not a single mask.

James Greener

Friday 28^th August 2020

 

SOME MORE EVER-EVOLVING TRUTHS

Every nation seems to have political habits and processes which are mystifying to others. For example, our speciality is recycling. No matter how terrible the alleged offence might be that causes a political office-bearer to resign or even, very rarely, to get fired, it’s not long before they pop up in a post which carries even more responsibility and  salary than the one they were holding. And why, in the mother of parliaments in London don’t they give their MPs desks? Are they worried they might write stuff down? But the most complicated of all is the American electoral system that drags on for months and miles and manages only rarely to produce candidates who appear worth voting for. Part of the process is the Party Convention where coachloads of delegates pitch up in some fun venue to witness a result that appears to have been settled much earlier. Because of Covid-19 the Democratic Party are holding a largely virtual convention and that seems to have lured a particularly weird group of crazies into the light. Airtime was granted to someone whose brief CV identified themself as a Black Vietnamese who answers to the name of My Lai. This of course is also the name of a place made infamous during the Viet Nam war by US army atrocities, but what point this makes, is unclear. My Lai, the delegate, devotes considerable space to categorizing her tedious and uninteresting gender preferences. Only the phrase  “mermaid queenking currently living out ever-evolving truths” as a post grad student at one of America’s older leafy campuses adds some joy to the depressing picture of someone whose speech to the convention was a plea to do away with law enforcement and prisons.

It was not surprising to learn that our national Vice-President was citing poor health as the reason why he could not pitch up at a commission to explain where the money had gone. What was odd however is that he claims to have a medical team in attendance to write his sick notes. How many and how far down the pecking order does the need for a medical team instead of a trip to the GP, extend? Do every one of the 70-odd cabinet ministers have a team of medics travelling in the car behind should their hangover be particularly troublesome or the ingrowing toenail require a trim?  A related puzzlement was the news of how much it costs to hold a state funeral, when, despite the medics on hand, the luminary passes on. Anything below about R50m seems to be considered almost a pauper’s funeral. Muttering and allegations of corruption are rife. (Surely not!)  The Ministry of Public Works and Infrastructure has the responsibility of arranging these events. This ministry is headed by the respected Minister Patricia de Lille who has agreed that the funerals for the nation’s heroes and legends should not be “tainted with allegations of corruption”. Good luck with that “Aunty Pat”.

Something awful and depressing is happening closer to home in the lengthy and labyrinthine corridors of SA Cricketing power. Not only have several decades of political interference put down deep and alien roots, but administrators appear to be firmly ensconced over the cash flows from sponsors to players. Tidemark’s long held view that all sports are founded on entirely personal ambitions, drive and talent in which governments should play no part whatsoever, remains steadfast. There is no evidence, especially in grave economic circumstances like the present, that most voters want to see public money spent on supporting an individual’s efforts. This is harsh, especially for talented youngsters seeking a way to monetise their skills in whatever discipline, whether arts or sport. The only way for government to channel money to such causes should be by way of tax breaks for private donors, sponsors, fans and supporters. Our guess is that it won’t be long before a frantic tax collector would close down that loophole proving that ideological meddling was the true reason for running a costly Sports Ministry. Currently they appear to be spending our money determining if South Africans playing rugby overseas are kneeling in suitable respect for departed American petty criminals.

James Greener

Friday 21^st August 2020

FLYING SQUADS

Tidemarks often wonders just who in government is watching the National Treasury’s monthly data on the state’s income and expenditure. The big scare number from the latest release is the widely touted R451bn deficit for the past 12 months. This shortfall is a record-breaking 36% greater than the tax income for the same period. But it has not been caused just by the collapse in revenue resulting from by the catastrophic consequences of the now indefensible lockdown regulations which shut down huge swathes of industry. The other side of the equation – state spending – is almost as concerning a cause of the exploding deficit.  Spending hasn’t slowed down or even stabilised through the virus crisis. It has accelerated and has grown by 10.5% in the past 12 months. No civil servant has been forced to experience the dreadful salary cuts that have hit the private sector workers. Indeed, this week the Presidency almost boasted of this when admitting to the costs of public sector salaries – particularly for those who are not expected to be at work.  And then there is the spending on atrociously overpriced and corruptly awarded contracts to supply the state with goods and services. So, if there indeed is anyone official watching these appalling figures and joining the dots, they have failed to get the message through the mist of ideological excitement that has enveloped our leaders, who are more concerned about their way to fame in the future textbooks on the failures of communism.

The business rescue plan for resuscitating SAA, the national airline, has been released. Published by the government’s Department of Public Enterprises – a demonstrably incompetent and unenterprising outfit – the plan is seemingly silent on the wisdom of launching a new airline in these financially troubled times. In due course perhaps, the soon to be appointed chief information officer will explain. In the meantime we await the naming of a “transaction adviser” whose task it will be to sift through the allegedly long list of investors eager to help fund this new airline. Amid the waffle about “mixes of local and international investor groups”, “private sector funders”, “private equity investors and partners” there is not a word about filling seats with paying passengers. Whatever the promise that “the government would maintain a certain level of ownership of the new carrier (and) would like to see an efficient and modern aircraft fleet with hybrid density options acquired at competitive rates” might mean, everyone ought still note the queue of creditors waiting for news of the R2,3bn that they lent to the previous SAA.

The downside of living a lifestyle that necessitates having bodyguards on duty 24/7, is that these heavies are very aware that what and who they see could one day be of interest and value to someone.  At one of the never ending and very expensive commissions of enquiry that is in progress, someone thought to chat with the gate guards from the one time Gupta mansion in Saxonwold, Johannesburg. And the place, it seems, was a veritable laundry where great numbers of public figures came by to drop off their unused oaths of office, tattered integrity and soiled reputations in exchange for sacks of freshly laundered bank notes. No one is much surprised or even embarrassed at these confirmations of what has long been suspected. But would it not be encouraging for the rest of us, if a handful of these thieves – including some from the Gupta side – were roused from their beds early one morning and asked some hard questions. Of course, it would be so much better if their answers resulted in them being given a long stay on that small and inhospitable island in Table Bay, where they could commune with the sprit of their claimed hero and role model.

Most of us are pretty hazy about where Potchefstroom is and what it’s for but it is the birthplace of Brad Binder who last weekend became the first South African ever to win a MotoGP championship race event. This earned him a call from President Cyril  and the undying respect of those who understand the laws of physics, because this is a sport that flagrantly breaches most of them.

James Greener

Friday 14^th August 2020

CIRCULAR ARGUMENTS

The price of gold in the local currency is a feasible indicator of the distrust the globe has for the governance of that country. Krugerrands now at a record R36 000 per coin is telling a huge story, but as usual the culprits are not listening. Neither is anyone listening in the USA where an ounce of gold is priced at just over $2000. The world is baffled by the choices being offered by that great nation to its voters for the next president. Reportedly the one with probable dementia is leading the one with zero self-doubt.

The rand has lost its courage again and is weakening against most other currencies. Everyone will have their own reason for this, but my choice is the bland insouciance displayed by senior government when asked why they are apparently crushing the life out of the old economy. Not one response, statement, or action appears to be made with the objective of resuscitating or supporting the way we used to go about our lives. Indeed, it is the very opposite. President Cyril and his accomplices are steaming ahead with the National Democratic Revolution to create the “perfect” communist state where the cadres are above the law and well rewarded. Just this week following on widespread allegations of looting by the elite of the latest funds for PPE medical supplies, the appointed task team comprises precisely those untrustworthy cabinet ministers most likely to be at the apex of the mafia planning the heist.

It really is cruel that vehicle license authorities stick with the century old system of issuing a circle shaped licence disc printed on a sheet of stiff paper. This is blatant bias against those who don’t even own, let alone are able to find an appropriate pair of scissors. Usually it is either a pair with a serrated blade from the kitchen drawer or a dainty pair of curved finger-nail trimmers scavenged from the toilet bag. Further it evokes terrifying memories of kindergarten handiwork lessons involving blunt and rusty scissors plus glue and garishly coloured tissue paper with colours that ran. Why not shape the licence as a different straight sided polygon each year? Cops could tell immediately if one was expired.

Proper economists are advised to look away as Tidemarks offers its explanation of how Gross Domestic Product is measured and why it isn’t that good at the task. Imagine that every single transaction in the country between two parties involving the exchange of money in return for goods or services produced a “till slip” recording that deal. Well the sum of the monetary amounts on those billions of till slips generated during a selected period (usually 3 months) is the GDP. And the change in this GDP total from one period to the next is taken as the measure of the growth in the nation’s economy. It can of course be negative which naturally is a bad thing. A common objective of governments is to try to maintain economic growth rates higher than population growth rates. Thereby ensuring on average that everyone is spending more than last time. However, the huge difficulties in even determining GDP are immediately obvious What about the uncounted transactions that take place mainly in the informal, largely cash based sectors? There are also difficulties associated with correcting for inflationary rises in the prices. These, as well as seasonal effects, are adjusted for by Stats SA before publication. This fine outfit – reportedly being currently threatened with budgetary constraints -- also classifies and sums the basic data sorted by industry sector and the whole shebang appears as a freely available two dozen page booklet every 3 months. The grist for many a mill. The purpose of this paragraph is to help readers prepare themselves for the avalanche of horror Covid-19 induced negative growth stories that are about to hit us. Things are undoubtedly bad, but not as bad as the official numbers will suggest. Simplest example: booze and tobacco are still trading but are not being counted!

It is so sad that a nation that currently has the Rugby World Cup trophy on its shelf (has anyone checked its still there?)  is so unable to match its southern hemisphere peers in coping with and planning for the disruption to this (and indeed all other professional) sports brought about by the virus.

James Greener

Friday 7^th August 2020