Friday 30 July 2021

NUMBER CRUNCHERS

One of the smouldering fires which could burst into serious flames as far as world markets are concerned is the shortage of chips of the electronic kind. Ever shrinking in size but gaining in complexity, these tiny scraps of electronic wizardry are so ubiquitous in our consumer lifestyle of things, that assembly lines of bigger items like cars, washing machines, space ships and of course our personal life support systems – mobile phones are being impacted There are of course numerous outfits who closely monitor the supply of these elements that most of us could not find on the periodic table, but if you want a carefree life don’t read their reports. Seemingly there is such a word as digitalisation. It is clumsy and ugly. Using digital computers to store, process and share data has been around for more than half a century and one suspects that users of this relatively new word are rather hazy about what exactly it means. Politicians and others who don’t really know how most of the world works, frequently use the term as a process that can be blamed for their own failures and inefficiencies. The articles about the cyber attacks which reportedly are still impacting the operations of the nation’s ports are heavy with the term “digitalisation”. The word has offspring such as 4IR (Fourth Industrial Revolution) and 5G (fifth generation). The former has been declared “a good thing” while the latter has even been identified as being somehow responsible for the respiratory infection that has caused such a massive disruption to our way of life. Oh, and global warming too! The banks have been counting the costs of the looting spree that the population entertained themselves with a week or two ago. Not only were almost 300 branches trashed but also about 1200 ATMs containing an estimated R20m in cash were broken into, sometimes even totally removed from the wall into which they had been built. The banks insist that ATMs are programmed to soak their stock of bank notes in a green dye if they sense the beginnings of a theft attempt. Further, they warn everyone that any bank note with a trace of the dye is valueless and that no one should accept such notes for any transaction. Oddly though, little has been reported about how much dyed currency they have retrieved. Perhaps a chemist has found a way to clean them. If only stealing and breaking stuff was an Olympic sport, our medal count in Tokyo would be far higher. Presumably every nation indulges in a spell of introspection and review once their athletes return home, to determine why they did not do as well as forecast. Without any proper data to back the claim it still appears that government support plays a big role in a nation’s ranking on the medal table. Clearly the moral boost for a country able to greet even just one gold medallist on their return is worth the allocation of public money. What is less clear, however, is whether the so-called national costumes prepared for the athletes taking part in the opening ceremony provide as much pride and motivation as the designers claim. Our team’s attempt to rock the “veldskoen look” fell rather short, perhaps. Nevertheless, for us couch potatoes this 4-yearly update of ways the fit and healthy spend their time is always an eye-opener. There are for example 7 ways each for women and men to earn a medal for crossing the finish line going backwards! The sailing events will see 10 medal ceremonies, which are, in these days of covid, rather joyless spectacles. There is noticeable growth in the number of events in which an individual puts on a display of self-absorbed narcissism but titanic athleticism in front of a jury who award points. Wheeled sports are also growing in popularity with a 13-year old on a skateboard being the youngest medal winner ever. And who knew what someone on a bicycle can achieve? F1 returns this weekend but it feels as if something is going awry in The Paddock. Personal invective and touchy-feely sentiments are not useful in this supremely technical sport. At least no one has yet suggested replacing the bottles of bubbly with a nice bouquet of lovely flowers. James Greener Friday 30th July 2021.

Friday 23 July 2021

BEDDING DOWN

The South African currency (ZAR) has lost a few percent in the last couple of weeks as the novelty of having an ex-president in jail gets discounted as just something most self-respecting Marxist regimes need to get used to. The Reserve Bank monetary policy think tank that met this week saw nothing to worry about and left interest rates unchanged. It’s bizarre to jot down the events of the week and juxtapose the normal and usual against the abnormal and astonishingly unexpected. The government’s vacillation and ineffective original response to the widespread looting and lawlessness in two provinces was quite a surprise as many citizens had assumed that someone – in particular the police—would protect us. The swift and effective appearance of what has been called the civilian militia was gratifying for most but perhaps embarrassing for the state. Amongst its earliest reactions was a spat between President Cyril and his Defence Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula about how to describe the incidents. The president used the word insurrection. The Minister said this was incorrect because there were no identifiable instigators. But now there are. But probably paying close attention was SASRIA. Which is a government owned re-insurer type of business founded in the early seventies when the riots of that time were feared to be too large for the local insurers to cope. Currently it sits on assets worth around R9 billion which is significantly less than the estimated costs of the damage. A shortfall looms. The latest score in this one is unknown. But the list of friends who are leaving the country before more bills and deaths mount up, gets even larger Another thing we can’t influence, is the outcome about a succession dispute that has broken out among members of the Zulu royal family since King Zwelithini died a few months ago. With all the elements of a Shakespearean tragedy, costumed in leopard skin, this could run for ages before the final curtain. The principal prize is the real estate of Zululand, which is owned by a hastily conceived and executed Trust virtually hours before the 1994 election. The sole trustee is the late king. The current winners are going to be lawyers. Non- Zulus respectfully request to be absolved from picking up any costs for this one. Reportedly the computer systems used to operate the harbours have been incapacitated by a cyber-attack. And the ports have closed. A ransom demand apparently has been made to the authorities whose quite possible and truthful response will be that they have no money. Even if they refer the extortionists to National Treasury, they too can do little but launch their usual emergency strategy of going through everyone’s pockets and feeling down the back of the couches in the visitor’s waiting room. From my position of assistant deputy self-appointed part-time harbour master, I can confirm that the number of ships loitering out in the ocean roadstead has risen a lot. Mind you those crews wouldn’t be able to buy a drink even if they could dock. Covid, you know. Suppose they held a Games, and nobody came? One does have to feel very sorry for the Japanese. The only amusing story coming out of Tokyo concerns the cardboard beds being used in the Olympic Village. The bulky lads and lasses taking part are anxious, despite assurances that the beds have been tested for any eventuality. This need to recycle everything should have limits. As are we all down here on the southern tip. Satellite pictures reveal an exceptional cold front about to hit the country. The B & I Lions might unfortunately find that to their liking in tomorrow’s Test James Greener Friday July 23rd 2021

Friday 16 July 2021

LOOT RESPONSIBLY

This title is the behaviour guideline offered by Duduzane Zuma, who is one of ex-president Jacob Zuma’s nearly two dozen children. Presumably, he learned it at his father’s knee but quite what this instruction implies is unclear. Would it, for example, apply to a well-dressed man who arrives at Woolworths in a very smart car and saunters in to select a trolly load of tasty delicacies which he neglects to pay for? To be fair, the tellers had long since left their posts. Perhaps Duduzane is against the looting technique where ATMs are prized from the wall with a crowbar, presumably by someone who had forgotten their PIN. And then what about stealing TV sets and other appliances which are far too big to fit in a car and necessitate liberating a forklift to lug the goodies home? Surely its irresponsible not first to measure up your loot? There are so many unrecorded tragedies, heart-warming alliances, unsolved conundrums and unexpected outcomes and developments emerging from this breakout of massive civil unrest and lawlessness. It is now only of historic interest to determine whether the flashpoint was the jailing of Zuma or President Cyril’s extension a few hours later of the punitive economic lockdown in the name of controlling the spread of Covid 19. This latter move is by far the most damaging for every citizen and the “enough is enough” attitude was widespread. The majority of this week’s looting and arson have taken place in and around Durban within a few kms of Tidemarks’ own lookout. The hopelessly under-resourced police were overwhelmed and became incapable of effective response and so by Monday evening, ordinary citizens, many still young enough to recall their own days of conscription, set up and manned strategic roadblocks and street patrols. They have been successful since then in keeping the largely residential areas quiet and safe. The level of gun ownership in the suburb is both amazing and reassuring at times like this. Tidemarks has selected his heaviest walking stick whilst the well prepared are sharing ammo even with the police. Unsurprisingly for our times, a mobile phone app (Zello) that mimics walkie-talkie radios, appeared within minutes and honey-voiced ladies were soon co-ordinating operations. Lots of “roger this” and “copy that” has broken out. Some commentators have become dewy eyed at the thought of and evidence for South Africans of every sort standing shoulder to shoulder in defence of their communities. As ever this nation’s capacity to behave unexpectedly has amazed us all. In the absence of formal supply lines operating and with stores failing to open, back-yard popups have appeared, with fresh produce “fetched from the farm this morning!” No one asks any questions. As previously suggested by Tidemarks, the Minibus Taxi industry is probably the nation’s most significant power bloc, and the signs are appearing that they are largely on the side of returning to a rule of law. Encouraging. They too can’t find food, fuel or fares. Almost as difficult to understand this weekend is just who will be playing where and when and even why. The B & I Lions apparently are unconcerned by the mayhem, presumably because it is no worse than facing a ‘bok scrum or getting mugged outside Wembley. The aerial pictures of Royal St Georges, venue for The Open, suggest that historians may have erred in telling us that there was no invasion of England during the second world war. Those pot bunkers are identical to shell holes. Then there will be the new F1 Sprint qualifying format at Silverstone where even the tyre allocation rules require legal opinion. As usual, by the end of the Tour de France, Tidemarks becomes infused with the idea of owning an E-bike and cruising gently down to the Ski Boat Club for a cold beer on warm and sunny days. The French race route this year looked brutal and the suggestion that pharmaceuticals may have been used is hardly surprising. All I’d have to worry about would be the battery running out. James Greener Friday 16th July 2021

Friday 9 July 2021

RIDERS IN THE SKY

It has been a fascinating time to live through here on the southern tip as the nation has been pursuing a very significant project to determine the various rankings of our courts and our law enforcement agencies. It has become popular to describe the Constitutional Court as the apex court in the land. This is in question however, ever since ex-president Zuma’s counsel advised him to request a High Court to overturn the contempt of court ruling served on him by the Con Court. The next dose of amazement was the sight of the Minister of Police shimmying in every direction at once trying not to have to coax his previous boss to don a pair of handcuffs. In the end in a move described by his spokesman as an act of compliance by a law abiding citizen, Zuma bolted from his private residence at Nkandla and made a last minute dash to a prison in Estcourt. (yes the 3rd “court” of the paragraph). Described by a member of his legal team as a “penniless old man with bad health and legal advice” one wonders if seeing his mates the Gupta brothers will even cheer him up. It seems as if the last of the red tape preventing the extradition of the Gupta brothers (and perhaps some of their chums) from Dubai to South Africa has been snipped away. Probably they are not too thrilled even if they are getting the message from Jacob that the Estcourt prison is brand new although the chef is not much good at curry. Local taxpayers should be wary as they will be funding the prosecution. Lawyers, however, foresee litigation and argument and fee notes stretching out until their grandchildren can take over the briefs. Most people who have been to receive their doses of Covid-19 vaccination are delighted and astonished by the efficiency skill and professionalism shown at the clinics both pop-up and permanent. When this is all over, we need to get these people in to run the whole country. What does concern those of us doing the necessary long division is that the rate of progress of the vaccination program is not nearly high enough. We really should be aiming to complete the program well before the boffins at the WHO announce that they have identified another variant of the virus and named it omega. [the last letter in the Greek alphabet]. It is also interesting to see how few people in each age cohort are being reached compared to population size estimates. There are of course plenty of probable reasons for this including the presence of illegal foreigners who presumably are not eligible for the South African funded vaccine, and the likelihood of gross errors and fraud in the registration for the various state grants. Have the bureaucrats who drafted the pointless POPIA legislation, twigged onto the fact that so far we have been pestered by only those of our correspondents who have our details stored electronically? Even the letters, when the are finally delivered, will have been spewed from a database. No one still in business today will have any need for the astonishing section of the act where our smart and caring government actually specifies the sort of paper shredder that must be used to destroy printed documents. The fact is that our information resides for ever on servers in the cloud. Wherever they may be. It is possibly safe even from Eskom. Reportedly the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in Wimbledon is conducting a medical experiment during its Annual Championship being held now. It wants to find out how dangerous (specifically getting infected by the Covid-19 virus) it will turn out to be for people to attend the tournament. This is probably far more important and significant as it sounds since lack of good data about events like this are causing cancellations of similar events all over the world. Including the bokke’s second scheduled tests against the Georgians tomorrow and the B & I Lions in the coming weeks. James Greener Friday 9th July 2021

TAXI DRIVERS. SOUTH AFRICA’S REAL POWER BLOC

In four closely spaced moves in early 2020 the Reserve Bank dropped the Repo rate from 6.25% to 3.5% where it has remained ever since. Obviously this slashing of the cost of money was supposed to be a prop for the economy which was expected to (and did) collapse as a result of the lockdown measures taken by our leaders in their attempt to control the spread of Covid-19. Nothing much to do with responding to and controlling this infection has gone according to plan. In the last few days any South African with a computer or mobile phone connected to the internet will have received dozens of unintelligible scripts droning on about Protection of Personal Information Act, POPIA to its creators. This legislation kicked in yesterday but it’s not clear what is expected of us. “Nothing” seems the best reaction. Even before computers the possibility of someone using your private information to commit a fraud has existed. And vigilance rather than legislation is the preferred protection. Today the reach of the internet is now so deep and embedded that despite any regulation, the baddies will still obtain and use anything they want. On how many memory sticks, hard drives and devices does each of us have details of our contacts. And how about that not quite extinct publication called the phone book? Will golf clubs have to erase all records of their members scores and handicaps? The Ski Boat Club has kindly informed me that “Daisy” is responsible for operating CCTV and Encrypted backups. Thanks for that. The one organisation that most of us would request to erase their records about us is SARS – the tax man. Simultaneously with POPIA, the AARTO legislation is reaching fruition. This apparently will link drivers and their cars with past infractions of the law. Undoubtedly the road safety record of our nation is in sore need of fierce and uncompromising application of laws already in place. But the reaction of the immensely powerful minibus taxi industry to any attempt to do so has in the past failed. The drivers say “No”. Hmm. Constitutional court Justice Sisi Khampepe is a feisty lady – who told Jacob Zuma – the previous state president what she thought of his attitude and sentenced him to 15 months in prison for contempt of court. He was given a few days to pack his kit and choose his books and is required to pitch up round about now at a police station to start his sentence. In the great South African tradition of siding with the guilty, a paramilitary posse has pitched up at Nkandla, Jacob’s now sadly rather under cared-for home in deepest Zululand. Whether to escort him to his incarceration or repel officialdom coming to take him away was not clear. It’s always interesting in Africa. The ‘bokke take on the Lelos, the Georgian national side, tonight at Ellis Park. It could be a very tough game, as any side would like to beat the world champs on their first match since hoisting the world cup. Unfortunately, not only will there be no spectators allowed but anyone contemplating sneaking round to watch the game on his brother-in-law’s gigantic new TV flat screen must prepare for a sprint home to beat the curfew. This virus is changing our lives mercilessly. As a veteran Tour de France competitor (in the static couch potato division) Tidemarks was interested in the attempted protest by the participants in this year’s race. The route, they say, is in places too dangerous. There have indeed been some very spectacular crashes, caused by, amongst other factors, rather stupid spectators. But the kudos and prestige of this race is such that among the nearly 150 competitors someone will always break the attempted boycott and use their fellow competitor’s sullen slow down to their own benefit. Inevitably, by the end of the day of the protest, the riders were back to breakneck speeds and fiercely competitive behaviour even if the chance of a trip to casualty to extract pieces of bike from one’s body remains high. Which – apart from the breath-taking scenery – is why we watch. James Greener Friday 2nd July 2021