HIGHS AND LOWS

The rand has improved, share indices are up and bond yields are softening.  It’s almost as if South Africans feel much happier now that not only has President Cyril come back early from his overseas junket to solve our power crisis, but also ex-president JZ has returned from allegedly taking medical advice in Cuba and looks fit enough to share his State Capture Secrets with the Zondo Commission.

Cyril surprised many with the claim that sabotage was a factor in why Eskom has to ration our electricity; but cancelling all leave at the state owned enterprise may not do much for keeping the lights on. Very few people working at that utility have any clue about the real-world, hands-dirty business of converting (wet) coal into 230 volts. So instead of cancelling leave why not fire them along with all the supernumeraries on the state payroll.

The one government policy that needed to work in the last two dozen years of the so-called democratic era has turned out brilliantly. Known as Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) it all but legislates that wherever large money flows are happening – particularly if the state or one of its agencies is a party in that transaction – a layer of loyalists must be “inserted” in order to supervise that a suitable share of the proceeds be skimmed off and then made to disappear swiftly and without trace. The irony is that simultaneously with BEE, the government leaned heavily on the formal regulated financial industry to beef up compliance and anti-money-laundering activities. Not only was FICA very costly but it has failed spectacularly to throttle the flows of stolen and corruptly obtained money flows. One day research will demonstrate that in return for pretending to keep an eye open for suspicious cash movements and parachuting “cadres” into high paying but powerless positions, the banks were mostly left alone to do as they pleased.

An outcome for BEE has been to oblige consumers and taxpayers – who in the beginning were mostly white citizens -- to pay too much for goods and services. One measure of the success of the policy is the exciting growth of the black middle class, which is probably now the most significant demographic group in the nation. They certainly are the target audience of most advertising! Especially luxury liquors. But thy are also taxpayers and will be wondering how long it can last if 34% of the tax they pay is used in turn to pay them!

A secondary effect of rampant corruption and paying people more than the post that they fill earns, is that prices are now hopelessly distorted. In a land with record joblessness those who do have jobs are often paid far too much. And with governments paying egregious amounts for nearly worthless goods like trains that don’t fit tunnels and boilers that can’t burn coal none of us know anymore how much to pay for a Chappies bubble gum.

The changeover of the All Black’s coach from the more or less cheerless Steve Hansen to Ian Foster seems to have gone well. The new guy also doesn’t smile. Let’s hope that we can keep him glum for another 4 years. And if you have never watched Sevens Rugby give it a try. No matter who is playing its entertaining. It does help when the Blizbokke are on song though. Even Danie Craven would laugh at the sight of green and gold dreadlocks streaking down the touchline.

This will be the last Tidemarks for the year and indeed the decade. The highlight of the year was the birth in August to my younger daughter in Edinburgh of my first grandchild Penelope Nora Young. The nadir was the death just a fortnight later from liver failure, probably a result of chemotherapy side effects, of Christine, my beloved wife and best friend. Therefore, accompanied by my elder daughter from Franschhoek and a pile of unfamiliar but reportedly “warm” clothing, I am going to meet Penny and on behalf of Chris and myself welcome her into the family. Please have a wonderful festive season yourself and try to ensure that I have a country to come back to and prod gently

Merry Christmas and a Happy and Safe New Year

James Greener

Friday 13^th December 2019

TECH LESSON

The Gross Domestic Product statistic for the third quarter was published this week. After the usual jiggery-pokery it turned out to be 0.6% lower than the second quarter statistic. But allegedly there is good news. Convention states that a nation’s economy must shrink for at least six months before a recession be declared and so because the September result was +3.2% it’s OK for the moment.  We are doing dandy. However, yesterday’ s -0.6% is the fourth negative growth rate in just seven quarters. Can it really be possible that something as huge and inertial as a nation’s economy can swing so wildly from up to down and back again?  Similar peculiarities abound in all the tables provided by Stats SA. Odd. And still the population grows faster than any enterprise or activity or business. Its that old bugbear discussed many times in these polemics, that per capita statistics are a mystery for those for whom a 30% maths pass rates is OK.

If you use your “smart” mobile phone for anything other than making a normal telephone call or sending an SMS, the phone has to be connected to a so-called “data” network. Preferably this connection is via “Wi-Fi” which is a short distance radio signal connecting your device to a nearby “router” which in turn is connected to the outside world via a number of different possible methods, of which a fibre optic line is the newest and fastest and ADSL is the oldest.  If, however, you are out of reach of any friendly Wi-Fi routers for which you have permission and  a password to use, then you must enable your phone to connect to the internet via a “data” link. (often colloquially known as 3G or 4G or even LTE) For many folks, especially those in rural areas, this data link offered by a mobile (cell) phone service provider (chiefly either Vodacom or MTN) is their sole method for connecting to the internet. Hence the political interest in the cost of this service which this week culminated in government ordering those costs be reduced or else. Globally, mobile phone network operators have often been caught taking advantage of public ignorance and misunderstanding of their product and become avaricious and, dare one say it, collusion prone with their pricing. Travellers are frequently unpleasantly surprised by the costs incurred when “roaming” in other countries. This will be an interesting squabble to watch unfold. As usual, lawyers are flipping through the Exotic Car catalogues.

For a moment it was thought that Eskom had scooped up the only fellow crazy enough to want to try and fix an ailing SOE. Now SAA has found one to head up their Business Rescue. Like the lawyer who has been retained by the EFF deputy head one Mr Shivambu, these appointments are all from the much reviled and despised pale male category of citizens. If only we could export hypocrisy – but there’s plenty out there already! Now is there another poor fool keen to fix SA Cricket please? And suddenly we are short of mayors who are jumping ship everywhere.

14 months ago, we cynics viewed the news that SA had signed an extradition treaty with UAE with suspicion. This is the country where the Indian family who effectively ran the South African Government while shovelling cash into sacks, has gone to enjoy their spoils. Unsurprisingly there’s a glitch (translation error apparently) with the treaty which has not yet been ratified by UAE and so no one has been able to go to Dubai with a large net and leg irons to bring any of the Guptas back to answer a few questions and show where the rest of the money is buried in the gardens of the at the Saxonwold Shebeen.

President Trump managed to ruin even a reception held by the Queen at her London home, Buckingham Palace simply by turning up. Obviously, facts are scant but reportedly groups of world leaders behaved like schoolgirls and gathered in whispering groups throwing glances at the US leader and giggling. Very dignified and diplomatic sort of stuff! Trump got huffy and went home early.

And already its Sevens season and the Blitzbokke are off to a fine start in Dubai

James Greener

Friday 6^th December 2019.