SMOKE GETS IN YOUR EYES

 At 7.25%pa the repo rate is now higher than it was since 2009 and at anytime since the global calamity which was covid. Expensive money is not really the way to help a nation without a  reliable electricity supplyto  keep going and competitive. This week we all discovered just how critical electricity is in the poultry business which most of us fondly picture is mostly about a jovial man in a hat scattering mealies. The nation’s staple meal, KFC, is under threat.

We also learned that that our Defence Force is planning a joint exercise named Operation Mosi - the Tswana word for smoke --  with fleets from both Russia and China. Our contribution is a mere 350 personnel, many of whom will probably be covered in officers’ gold braid and unable to do much harm except peer through binoculars and be on time for meals (if not incapacitated by seasickness). It does, however, signal clearly whose side we are on, and The USA has already reacted by cancelling an agreement involving supplies and parts for our sole nuclear power plant.

Most politicians and others who eagerly and willingly take momentous decisions on our behalf, are clueless ignorant oxygen thieves oblivious to the concepts of embarrassment and humiliation. These characteristics are a global phenomenon, but here in SA they are coated with a thick veneer of racism. The school-leaving exam results were released recently, and it remains clear that this government, who invented the 30% pass mark, still don’t understand that a decade aiming for too easy an educational target has done the nation a grave disservice. No one who uses a calculator to work out the change due from a R50 note tendered for a R20 purchase will be able to aspire to much more than a lifetime of menial labour and with luck, state handouts. But perhaps that’s what the lefties wish for as the future of their nations.  

The agenda of global warming now dominates all debate at every level and in every subject. The thesis is that thoughtless greedy human consumers have adopted or even just aspire to a life style that produces uncontrollable clouds of carbon dioxide which in turn, through a process known as the “greenhouse effect”, is forcing an unprecedented and unsustainable increase to the ambient temperature of the planet.  Which is a very bad thing. 

Tidemarks believes that most of this thesis is nonsense but is in awe of how successful it has been at creating an industry rich in pickings for entrepreneurs, academics, and charlatans (politicians).  It is even giving birth to disciples who claim that they alone know the truth and where to find it. For a fee. Here, for free, is the simple elegant, exciting and satisfying real story. All our energy comes from the sun in the form of light and heat. Once it reaches Earth the glorious biological process, otherwise known as “life”, uses, captures and stores some of this energy in and on our planet. The timescales for some of these conversion processes are unbelievably long and must be measured in millions of years. The longer they are, the greater the concentration of the energy captured.  Coal, oil, gas and biofuels are common descriptions for these commodities.  However, they produce carbon dioxide when burned. This is not a problem if you believe that the properties of this important gas are well understood and not particularly harmful. In fact Nature has stored energy in the nuclei of all the chemical elements, of which Uranium is already known to be very important and reasonably carbon dioxide benign. Green Hydrogen” is trendy but still in need of much more understanding.

In the meantime supporters of so called wind and solar (the latter through direct heating or via photovoltaic  conversion of light energy) try hard to disguise the fact that they are  just modern day versions of perpetual motion machines. This effort is made because it is well funded. Puzzling but true. “

The Blitzbokke really have lost their way. But the SA20 is unearthing all kinds of talent.

James Greener

Friday, 27^th January 2023

 

 

 

JUST PAY YOUR TAXES AND SHUT UP

Apparently the US government has debt totalling USD 38.4 trillion. This is a big number and it is up against  a self-imposed limit that has to be reset upwards from time to time following a bizarre ritual that takes place when the elected representatives of Congress sort of pretend that they never saw this coming and mutter things like “My goodness me, that’s a lot of money”. “But let’s agree to increase the limit this time and we will really do something about it next time.” Unless or until the lenders stop accepting freshly minted US Dollar notes with the ink still wet, this show can go on indefinitely, just like Disney Land.

The time was when the World Economic Forum was a hot ticket to have. Especially if you thought of oneself as a bit of an expert in the world of investing. The trick of course was to get someone who made the decisions and controlled the purse strings to agree with this self-assessment. And bingo, there you were among the good and great trying to pretend that one’s South African winter clothes were stylish and adequate for the snows of Switzerland. Discussions on grave topics would take place. But as with all conferences it was the networking that counted. In the days before digital cameras and selfies one had to rely on the photographers to capture the moment when you were offering Warren Buffet advice. But these days the WEF has morphed into something vile and threatening. Delegates are openly proclaiming that they are a select group of human beings “almost extra-terrestrial” in their skills and foresight on “saving the planet” Elon Musk nailed it with the comment that “WEF is increasingly becoming an unelected world government that the people never asked for and don’t want.”

Loyal readers know that Tidemarks' antipathy towards electrically powered vehicles began with doubtful scepticism, progressed through scientific dismissal and is now unalloyed schadenfreude. The You Tube motoring channels are today filled with master classes in a new psychiatric condition called range anxiety. Simply because their new cars display ridiculously accurate estimates of how far their sleek chariot will travel before the batteries are depleted, they foolishly believe it. Add to this is the fact that recharging is currently a bit of a gamble with uncertainty of location, accessibility and time to charge and you have the ingredients for a full scale fret. It’s rather odd when you recall that motorists are quite used to interpreting the quite ludicrously lackadaisical liquid fuel tank gauges with a needle that drifts between F to E and not much else. Most drivers have become adept at judging where to stop to satisfy firstly passenger bathroom and biltong needs and then a tank top up. But today’s EV motorist has become totally unhinged by the theoretical superior accuracy of the range gauge and the power source reliability. This for smug-inducing TV.

Surely it has been irrevocably proven and accepted that there is absolutely no medical or clinical benefit to wearing a simple gauze mask.  By contrast there is plenty of evidence for psychological damage, especially to children, caused by masks. It is therefore very alarming that mandatory masking is back for consideration. If our government wanted to demonstrate a real and valid effort to reduce unnecessary deaths in this country, then road traffic control is the area where actual effects will quickly be seen. Merely tracking down those responsible for  the half dozen terrifying road incidents posted on the Internet every day and processing them with due despatch will make a difference.

The world of sport is settling back to normality after the hullabaloo that was the soccer world cup. And The Dakar Rally. Except that there are so many fresh new faces in the old favourites like the Aussie Open Tennis. Do the organisers operate a play room with building blocks and other toys to keep the contestants amused while they wait for their matches to start? The Sevens Rugby has a tournament in Hamilton this weekend which might not be easy watching for Blitzbokke fans. The local version of a cricket T20 shoot ‘em up is doing remarkably well in attracting spectators.

James Greener

Friday 20^th January 2023

DARKNESS FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN TIP

We are probably not supposed to notice but there are bulls stampeding all over the share and bond markets. Buyers can’t currently see an indicator that makes them fearful. In the US, the yield curve is rarely as inverted as it is now.– short term interest rates are well above long term interest rates – so that’s another old favourite “please panic now” signal shot to bits. But guess what? The gold price is also bullish and may soon set new highs in most currencies. Barbarous relic! Bring on the crypto currencies. What’s that? Someone stole them? Oh dear. But aren’t they all block chained into unbreakable security?

Last year ended with the damp squib of an Elective Conference which at the very least we uninformed naive analysts expected to see fisticuffs and rolling heads. But no, even the traditional displays of flying chairs failed to take place.  Delegates merely ticked the boxes they were and slithered back under their rocks to await the general election in 2 years’ time.

Astonishingly Cyril is going to the annual Davos shindig next week. Why? Did Comrade Gwede Mantashe pay for the ticket perhaps? There are just so many reasons for President Frog Boiler to be at home, not least of which, is the fact that the nation’s electricity supply has dwindled to a useless soul-destroying trickle, for which Eskom has the gall and impertinence to apply for (and even get!)  a 30% odd tariff increase! Another is that he never seems to bring back anything of value from these jaunts. Like reasons why we don’t need a State Bank. Or the news that he has been arrested at Customs on charges of money laundering and couch abuse.

Sufficient time has now elapsed since the start of the Covid incident to enable the coarse-grained data (monthly and longer) to reveal the extent of the damage that  the state’s response caused in the economic landscape. One such data set is the government’s deficit. That is, the gap between what taxes bring in and the amount of spondulix the lads and lasses in charge are spending. The decade before Covid, this shortfall, which has to be covered with borrowings, ran at an already eye-watering and unsustainable average of just less than R200bn a month. In April 2021 it peaked at almost R600bn. Lockdown tripled the deficit! But things have not recovered very much and at present the average monthly deficit is a tad over R300bn.With this number hanging over their heads it’s hard to understand the near triumphal tone used by officials who announced that half the population is totally dependant on state handouts for their existence.

Despite queuing at the Traffic Department for almost three hours I failed to encounter actor Tom Cruise who allegedly is in town to make a movie to be entitled Mission Impossible 8 - Renewing a South African Driver’s Licence.  I did eventually get the 3 minutes of attention required from an inexplicably calm official in order to collect a new driver’s licence.

These and other similar earlier experiences in this “renew your licence” saga did reveal an interesting feature about a new role for white-skinned South Africans as human place holders in these unending waits. In rough agreement with the national demographic, about 1 in 20 people on average in a queue at a state facility is white and they are quickly singled out by the darker fellow supplicants for service, who see no reason to stand in the sun when a mlungu will meekly perform that task. Whenever the official line shuffles forward to the point where a place holder approaches a chair, the shade or some other small milestone of comfort, the wise men reappear and reclaim their positions around the white man. Rarely does a true and blatant queue jumper appear although an occasionally suspiciously sprightly grey-hair turns up  with an obviously little used walking stick. In general we are as a nation respectful of old age.

I really must make up my mind whether to follow the SA20 Cricket tournament or one of those overseas rugby contests that SA teams did so well in last year. The team names in the former are just so uninspiring. But watching rugby from the pool bar seems very odd. Just a few days of the Dakar left.

James Greener

Friday 13^th January 2023.

THE OPENING OVER

There is an organisation called the Johannesburg Roads Agency. It probably occupies a very confused space as multiple nationally owned and administered roadways traverse its territory. This is fertile ground for “Not my Job” excuses. Its most recent quarterly report almost cheerfully admits that the status of the 12 000km road network it does care for, ranges from poor to very poor and requires rehabilitation or reconstruction. Its own scorecard records 45 000 pot holes in need of filling.  It further notes that 68 city bridges need urgent repair. This is not good news, and you would think that the organisation works ceaselessly to do something about this. You would be wrong. Its CEO, who styles himself “Hon. Dr Tshepo Mahanuke”, reportedly spends much of his time keeping a lookout for any sign of disrespect for his qualifications. Greetings or communication not addressing him appropriately are ignored and returned unread. The best part of this story, however, is that most of these honourifics, qualifications and titles are bogus, or fake, having been issued by dodgy and in some cases non-existent institutions! Joburgers need not expect their potholes to be fixed any time soon. Tshepo is busy getting his newest certificate as a member of the Mickey Mouse club framed.

Tidemarks has been very quiet recently because his granddaughter – remember I told you about the most beautiful one on the planet – has been visiting from Edinburgh. And as grandparents know, these creatures require nearly unlimited attention and entertaining. Normally ice cream and beach can satisfy much of the demand but this year it has been hard to make a case for either. Firstly, the weather has quite frequently been below “Durban at Christmas Time” specification, And then sea water pollution has been dreadful. Although the daily official measurements of sea water contamination for certain beaches in the area have caused All Clear signs to go up, the colour and odour of the ocean is uninviting. Importantly users are not convinced and people with sensitive noses are staying away. Indoor venues such as Ushaka Marine World and  the large and glitzy shopping malls are however well attended showing that there is pent up demand and certainly some disposable cash is knocking about. 

Increasingly though, more and more vendors and venues are refusing cash and accepting only electronic payments. One wonders to what extent this development is being tapped into and taken note of by supporters of things like state controlled digital currency. Mind you it seems that South Africa remains a key point is the money laundering business so the Leopard and the Buffalo my be with us for a while still.

Meanwhile many organisations are using this time of reduced attention to slip possibly controversial news releases into the public domain. For example, The World Bank seeks to expand its lending capacity to address climate change and other global crises. These changes will require additional staff and budget resources, which have declined by 3% in real terms over the past 15 years. Another case of good money after bad. The only useful aspect of the huge cold weather system that punished much of the northern hemisphere recently is that some more folk may have begun to join those of us who are unconvinced that there is much meaning or point to “Net Zero”.  

Man but That Dakar Rally is a tough ne?

James Greener

Friday 6^th January 2023