Thursday 29 March 2018

EASTER TIME IS TIME FOR EGGS

Unusually, Tidemarks’ forecast of a cut in the repo rate turned out to be correct. Just as SARS adds 100 basis points to the VAT rate, the Reserve Bank has knocked 25 basis points off the cost of money. Unfortunately, the beneficial offset of these two actions will be vanishingly small for most of us. But it will be paraded vigorously as evidence that SA is now well on the way to ending the economic hardship of the recent past and that serious investing can now resume. After all, even one of those nasty ratings agencies changed their outlook on South Africa from “negative” to “stable”.


Moody’s are clearly impressed by the spirit of cleansing and revelation supposedly now sweeping through the nation’s state-owned enterprises. This is uncovering worms in places where there were not thought even to be cans. It’s going to be a long time before anyone will be able to trust a set of financial statements no matter who produced or audited them. But thank you anyway Moody’s. We need all the help we can get.
It has just emerged that the delegates at the ANC conference last year resolved that “Free Wi-Fi (connection to the internet) must be provided to communities in both metropolitan and rural areas, and to all public schools, clinics and libraries”. This would be a very good idea but is not the whole story. Reportedly, due to non-payment of its subscription to the company that publishes an on-line law library, employees of the Department of Justice employees can’t look stuff up. Oops.
As the news comes in that ex-president Zuma has been summoned to court to answer the now pretty ancient 783 charges of funny money, the rather special South African responses are being made. All sorts of organisations are calling on their members to ensure that they too will pitch up at the court to support their man. Yet again down town Durban will probably become impassable as the hordes, without anything else to do, will throng the High Court.
A columnist named Julie Frederikse has suggested that everyone over 70 should be disenfranchised. Her dubious contention is that these old-folk are no longer concerned about the future of society and tend to focus more on protecting their own interests than on issues affecting future generations. Its hard to heap enough scorn on this idea save for the corollary to not having a vote must be to have one’s tax number cancelled. And of course, it also means that no one over 70 can stand for public office. Hey! This is starting to sound attractive.
Once again the consequences of taking advantage of  all the lovely features of keeping in touch  and informed  via the internet  have been disclosed. Very simply, nothing that resides on any computer can be considered private and confidential. All those handy and “free” services that we use, make their living from selling what they can find out about us when we tap into their products. So the news that one of the giants in that business, Facebook, had been the source of information used by many of the big political campaigns of recent times should not surprise or concern anyone unless they would like to start paying for every photograph of their hamburger or kitten they send to “friends”.
Tiangong-1 is the name of a now useless space ship that belongs to China. Very shortly it is going to fall out of the sky and because it is so large, parts of it will probably survive the re-entry burn-up and land back on earth. Hopefully not on anyone. However, this event pretty much defines the word “uncontrolled” and all we can do is marvel at the fancy statistical calculations showing how small is the probability of being hit by a piece of very hot Chinese scrap. Various websites are offering “virtual telescope” observation of the doomed satellite. But remember if you use one don’t be surprised to receive an advertisement for hard hats very shortly.
Amongst all the welter of information, suspicions and abuse the really interesting thing to emerge from the ball tampering incident is that Cricket Australia has since 2013 had an Integrity Unit. And apparently the ICC has one as well. Come on! Really? And what have they been doing to earn their money?
James Greener
Maundy Thursday. 2018

Friday 23 March 2018

UNAFFORDABLE AND UNWANTED NANNY STATE


However bad Tax Commissioner Tom Moyane had been at his job did he really deserve to have the presidential letter which suspended him released to the media? It was pretty blunt and damming and not something you’d like your children to read about you. But then take a look at the very simple monthly data releases of how much money SARS has been collecting of late and it’s clear that the fellow has not been keeping a firm grip on his departmental duties. Annual growth in tax revenue is running at an average of just 4.5%pa, down from over 11%pa two years ago. Of course, this is not all Tom’s fault. His bosses in Cabinet have been steadily crushing the life out of the nation’s productive economy and there just isn’t the same amount of value sloshing about that can be purloined by any tax man. And this doesn’t even mention the popular assertion that so called “tax morality” (another oxymoron?)  is on the wane.
The fiscal year comes to an end in a week’s time and the National Treasury’s data release a month later is a popular time for analysis and jaw flapping. Unless an intense commitment to austerity has flooded the public service this month, it seems certain that government expenditure in Fiscal 2018 will be a record setting 19% greater than income. Not only are the socialist policy chickens coming home to roost, some have already dropped off the perch.  And the saddest part of it all is that we have little to show for all this money. More people than ever are on the social grant lists. The ones who do notionally work for the taxpayer are largely dispirited, uninterested and ineffective.
And the nauseating do-goodery ratchets up with yet more legislation about smoking, drinking and lending money all of which will make people’s lives harder and less fun. Undoubtedly there are dangers everywhere in life but the only way to help people cope with them is through knowledge and education that informs and supports personal responsibility and choice. Again, we ask why booze outlets need to be at least 500m distant from churches and schools. Insisting that smokers satisfy their habit out of sight of every other living soul is silly. Rather than prowling the land with tape measures and smoke detectors government should focus on offering everyone the educational opportunities to be able to do the sums and read the warnings for themselves.  In the meantime, the costly multi-coloured self-congratulatory booklet from SANRAL – the guardians of our (really very good) national road system – barely mentions the terrible road accidents that claim dozens of lives each week. These together with the appallingly savage murderous attacks on farmers are the tasks that need urgent and meaningful state intervention. Both South Africans and foreigners are becoming increasingly scared by the growing threat of violent death in this beautiful land. Not by seeing a bottle store from a school gate or a smoker in the street.
It’s really quite touching. A Johannesburg court ruled that the Guptas must bring their nice sleek jet plane back to Lanseria and then hand over the keys until one or two little matters are solved. Like money owing. Surely the Guptas by now have all but erased South Africa from their diaries and memories. They will have blocked all calls from country code 27, obtained new email addresses and are now looking for another corrupt and tin-pot regime to infiltrate. Friends, creditors, employees and anyone who believed that enjoyed a special relationship with these confidence tricksters must all becoming quickly aware that they were merely supporting cast members in a Bollywood thriller set in South Africa. The sole task remaining from this shameful and embarrassing hijacking of our country is the research and revelation of what happened. Oh, and paying for JZ’s legal team.
It’s Boat Race weekend. Formula 1 season starts with the cars now dolled up with a so called  “halo”, which is an ominously named device further to protect drivers from the dangers they accepted when they decided to try and make very large sums of money.  And Test cricket in Newlands where the new technique is to bring the sports administrators into play in order to deal with the opponents. The Six Nations matches in Europe last weekend and the performance of the NZ sides in the Super 15 suggest that it may be a difficult year for South African rugby supporters.
James Greener
Friday 23rd Match 2018

Friday 16 March 2018

BIG BUCKS BACON



For at least a month most of the market indicators have hung about in a narrow band less than 4% wide. This sort of laziness is unusual and of course no one knows why. Maybe there was a feeling of sympathy towards the northern hemisphere and their intense freezing conditionse and didn’t want to trouble them. Here at home perhaps it is the Cyril Concord. Whatever the reason, it will eventually end, and both bulls and bears are presently arguing their corners about what happens next.
Reserve Bank Governor Kganyago will soon tire of polishing his Central Banker of the Year Trophy and realise its been simply ages since he did the one other thing he is allowed to do and adjust the repo rate. The bi-monthly meeting at which these sorts of things are discussed takes place next week, immediately after the publication of the Bank’s Quarterly bulletin. This report might contain the justification for a decision which, if it changes, will almost certainly be downwards.
Those of us foolish enough to be paying sufficient attention to remember the last time VBS bank made the headlines (and thereby wasting precious hours of our lives) can now nod wisely and say: “I told you so.” Allegedly because the bank had a (now ex-) president as a mortgage client they pursued a banking strategy that was both overly ambitious and probably illegal. There are clearly specified types of public entities which may not make deposits with these so-called Mutual Banks, but they did and they were the ones who caused the crisis. Some of them at the same time last week wandered into their local branches and asked to withdraw their deposits. Rather belatedly VBS has been placed under curatorship (a status that very rarely unwinds happily) and astonishing people have made loud and totally unfounded claims about the whole debacle being a racist plot.
Even the ex-president is now assuring everyone that white people were responsible for his recall. Just what he’s doing out in the open these days and not under kraal-arrest at Nkandla is unclear. Every time he opens his mouth the taxpayers are handed another lawyer’s bill.
Obviously being elevated to a senior political post carries serious health threats. Principally amnesia. No one can remember anything. Despite documents and diaries all pointing to the fact that Minister Gigaba was assuredly in places where he signed letters and met people, the poor man hasn’t the vaguest recollection of these occasions. Little wonder he has so many smart suits and watches. He forgets where he put them and must go shopping all over again. His current memory loss relates to those infamous breakfasts organised by JZ’s old chums the Guptas, which cost the sponsors (state owned enterprises, by the way) around a million rand a sitting.
More than once this writer has puzzled over why it seems to be so difficult for SARS, the nation’s tax collector, to do what should be a simple job. The answer is that the name of the taxpayer is a critical factor when making assessments and paying refunds. Unlike the law (ha ha) the taxman is not blind to who might appreciate a favour or deserve a penalty. Once again, the personalities and faces of those who should ordinarily be quiet faceless technocrats working at SARS are splashed over the media because it is alleged they could be tempted into causing money to flow in unusual directions at convenient times.
The internet is humming with stories about the Aussie cricket team allegedly engineering the conditions for the suspension of Kagiso Rabada, SA’s delightfully successful bowler. Most of the world appears to distrust Australian sporting ethics. Or is that an oxymoron?
James Greener
Friday 16th March 2018