Only the most
dedicated and well-informed journalists attempt to understand and explain the
chaos that that seems from this distance to reign in the politics of many of
the major powers. Trump loses or fires apparent allies on a weekly basis, European
politicians can’t believe that its citizens are no longer grateful for the
armies of bureaucrats telling them what to do. And China (like France) has an
uppity citizenry on its hands. Meanwhile well-meaning but irony-blind and naïve
teenagers compete to make the most foolish speeches, posters and marches complaining
about the weather. So, when something substantive and important happens like
this week’s bombing of an industrial plant in Saudi-Arabia through which a
large fraction of the world’s oil passes, that feels like real news and a
portent of Armageddon. But the spike in the oil price was rather minimal and
short lived. And nothing much else has happened in the markets. Is this perhaps
a result of the ubiquity and immediacy of multiple opinions? Certainly, in
earlier times in the local markets a single analyst’s report, an unexpected
global event or well-sourced rumour could have profound effects.
This week the
bi-monthly two day-long gathering at the Reserve Bank of the five person brains-trust
known as the Monetary Policy Committee decided to leave the repo rate unchanged
at 6.5%pa. For three and a half years now, this officially declared “price” of
money has remained in the narrow band between 6.5% and 7.0% pa. Governor Kganyago’s
stewardship of the process is all very grown up and well behaved and quite
unlike most official activities in South Africa. One shudders at the thought of
what might happen if the great unwashed get their way and take control of SARB.
The puzzling (or perhaps instructive) thing though is that this once upon a
time closely watched and discussed parameter is today largely ignored, possibly
not much understood and appears to have scant effect on the country’s dismal economic
growth or on its volatile currency. Maybe that’s a consequence of the suspicion
that largely due to corruption the country is awash in unrecorded cash
transactions where interest rates are immaterial? Curious.
It's rather
telling that Cosatu, the labour union federation body, and nominally the third
leg in the government tripartite alliance is getting grumpy about the law that
will require unions to hold secret ballots when consulting its members on
actions such as coming out on strike. The next step should be to require
workers to make their own arrangements for paying union subscriptions instead
of obliging employers to deduct it from the wage payment. Individuals will then
be able to make value for money judgements about belonging to organisations
that order them to strike without income for long periods of time.
Anyone who
has faced the horrors of visiting a branch of the Home Affairs department in
order to obtain a document will sympathise with the million children who do not
have birth certificates. And therefore, don’t have that all-important Identity Number,
without which living in South Africa is very tricky and registering for school
impossible. The succession of incompetent deadbeats who have been appointed as Minister
of Home Affairs shows that Presidents have failed to understand this fact or
done anything about it. Apparently the most important thing in every branch is
that it is furnished with a set of large full-colour mugshots of the politicians
ultimately responsible for the inactivity and inefficiency unfolding in the hall
below their baleful gaze.
There is
something rather sad about the fact that the Proteas, now playing T20s in India
have sold the back of their match shirts to an Indian dairy firm. Presumably no
SA business could match the sum offered by Amul – probably in a nice offshore
currency too. I’m now rather anxious to
see who the ‘bokke are going to be advertising.
Not that it may make much difference for their first match tomorrow
against the All Blacks because so much rain is forecast for the venue that both
teams will soon both be mud coloured anyway. But do look out for the clever way
the ‘bok jersey collars strut their stuff. The talking heads have been trotted
out on TV, radio and podcasts. If inane and overexcited commentary counts for anything
the bokke will win by 6 points. Has the IRU banned the haka yet?
Time for the
first match now.
James Greener
Friday 20th September 2019
