POP GOES THE WEASEL

The nation’s Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter 2021 was released by Stats SA this week and good news was hard to find. We have yet to recover from the “Big Hit” in the second quarter of 2020 which erased almost 20% from the nation’s economic scorecard. That was when we all managed to scare ourselves that the end was nigh and the best we could do was to sit and wait for a virus to obliterate civilisation. While that has thankfully turned out to be spectacularly wrong, many politicians and leaders have been reluctant to give up the powers they awarded themselves at the start of the crisis and are still lurking with edicts and decrees which are hampering citizens in desperate need of a swift recovery. It is telling and important to repeat that the former group are characterised by not having missed a pay day during the close on 2 years this incident has lasted, while the latter almost universally have. This craze for opening Pop-Up stores arrived in SA a few years ago, but until now did not make much of an impact here on the eastern shores. Mind you, Tidemarks is a reluctant and disappointing shopper at the best of times so this observation could be faulty. Suddenly, however, Pop-Ups are now ubiquitous but seem to be confined to the medical services. Which is rather odd, because one associates health care with starched white uniforms, gleaming floors and sterile procedures and not scruffy gazebos in a garage forecourt or a mall parking lot. Komatipoort is a delightfully busy and vibrant African town which perhaps rivals the notorious Wuhan Wet Market for being a rich source of pathogens. Nonetheless, under a flapping canvas shelter, near the very busy entrance to the SPAR supermarket, a vaccination medical team were jabbing away as if it was a darts match final. More numerous than vaccination centres are the businesses offering to test for ones Covid-19 infection status. Presumably this is because there is a financial incentive. The going rate for a test seems to be in the region of R850 a patient, and cash and cards are gratefully accepted. Limited research suggests that this rate is much the same all over the globe – interesting. The one operating from a small tent pitched right in the main footfall path of the popular Restaurant Row in Umghlanga Rocks, promises same-day results for a PCR test. This is indeed speedy and somewhat at odds with the methodology developed by Prof Kary Mullis the inventor of the procedure. But with establishments like this at every street corner, bowling clubhouse and taxi rank, it’s little wonder that reports of nearly ten thousand new infections are being reported every day. Also intriguing is the confidence with which new cases are ascribed as being due to the latest named “variant”. Perhaps it would be helpful if this news were not shared so lavishly when there are so many amateur virologists keen to proffer conflicting prognoses which get the aforementioned leaders unduly excited. Once upon a time, markets used to anticipate the official release of all kinds of numbers deemed important for interpreting the past and divining the future. Parameters such as the repo rate , the trade balance , gross domestic product, even the sales of cement and the inflation rate all had their teams of observers and shills prepared to deliver whatever story best suited their book. Or to be truthful, their client’s book. This may not still be the case as Tidemarks no longer sits in a dealing room and is deliriously ignorant about the real world out there. However, it does appear that things are not like they used to be and the accuracy, credibility and reliability of many official statistics, from both the public and the private sector have undoubtedly deteriorated. The term “audited financial statements” probably no longer has the cachet it once used to. Very few reports of public spending are trustworthy. The owners and operators of the Formula 1 jamboree must be delighted that the championship has come down to the last race. What a bonus for sponsors and advertisers and a case study for sceptics of the power of free markets. The break in the steady flow of Tidemarks was due to me going to the Kruger National Park for 2 weeks. Thanks for the numerous enquiries from concerned well-wishers. James Greener Friday 10th December 2021