Compared to many other share markets in March, the JSE offered a
very pedestrian performance with the All Share index leaking just 2% or so.
Elsewhere there have been some spectacular moves, mostly to the upside with the
US
being particularly strong. Despite history suggesting otherwise, investors seem
convinced that great returns are possible from current levels. Bearish pundits
– who frankly don’t know either – are muttering about bubbles and such like. The
next few months leading to the US
presidential elections will be full of surprises. The present incumbent has
already been overheard begging the Russians not to rock the diplomatic boats at
least until his next term begins. And Fed Governor Bernanke has reiterated that
the price of money will remain near zero for simply ages more. The message is
that voters and investors have nothing to worry about.
The flies in the ointment however, are all the mining and resources
stocks which lost plenty of ground this month. The JSE’s top ten market capitalisation
losers this month are all in those sectors. The feeling is that China’s
appetite for raw materials might be waning but the data reliability on this
matter is questionable. Fortunately, solid gains were recorded by booze and fag
sellers with cell phones (at least those not involved in some strange squabble
with the Turks) and luxury gee-gaws also doing well.
The constant thread running through almost every report from local
business is just how unfriendly and antagonistic the legislation and the regulators
are becoming towards anyone trying to produce a service or goods for a profit.
An analysis has shown that, on average, owners now earn less than employees.
Presumably this result is a consequence of weird distributions of both data
sets. Nevertheless it is clear that risk takers – most of who work as hard to
keep their businesses afloat as they do to meet the endless list of government
demands and regulation – are an endangered species.
From this desk I can watch the traffic on the coastal highway out of
Durban. There
is not a lot up this road that any politician could vaguely claim required
their urgent presence; unless of course, they were going to lunch or a round of
golf or perhaps to buy a present for someone special. Nevertheless, several
times a day a wailing cavalcade of fancy cars speeds along this road in a
blizzard of flashing blue lights. The only reason for their obvious and
objectionably dangerous haste must be that they are late for something.
Something which almost certainly involves merely speeches and catering. We must
therefore conclude that both the panjandrum and his minders are utterly useless
at organising a diary and we ought to signify our concern and advice for them
at this shortcoming with some suitable hand signals that we can use as they zip
past. How about a pair of splayed fingers to represent the space that should be
left between diary entries? Or a single extended
finger to suggest that only one person ought to be in charge of making appointments.
Our own president joined a horde of other mystified heads of state
at a global knees-up in South
Korea to discuss “Nuclear Security”. Few of
the suits had many clues what this was about but all agreed that we need lots
of it and that “great vigilance was necessary”. Our own chap dutifully delivered a speech during
a so-called Working Dinner. Obviously this was written by someone also not too
clear about what an insecure nucleus might be, but no one was listening anyway
being much more concerned with the origin of various meats on the buffet.
With neither the Lions nor the Sharks yet able to play effective
rugby for long enough to win their games, the Super 15 season has started badly
for me. It will, however, be a lot of fun watching the Newlands crowd’s reaction
to the Bulls’ new pink strip tomorrow. What do you think tonight’s one-off T20
with India
at the Wanderers is for? Money, obviously, is the first answer; presumably to
tide the administrators over until they claw back the bonuses from the fellows
who nicked the last lot.
James Greener
30th March 2012
