The
prognosticators are putting down 2018 as another good year to be in the
markets. Whether 2017 was good will depend a great deal on where you were at
year end and how closely your portfolio mirrored bench marks like the Top 40
Index which scored a very fine 23.1% pa. This ensured that the All Share delivered
21%pa. However, the Top 40 and therefore the overall index is hugely influenced
by shares which while mostly performing very well in 2017 don’t really
represent the experience of the national economy. The constituents of both the
Mid Cap Index (7.4%pa) and the Small Cap Index (3.0% pa) are also constituents
of the All Share and these single figure returns are probably closer to what
many investors will have experienced. Because of many factors, including derivatives
and so-called index tracking funds this divergence between benchmark and the portfolios
of many individual investors is very marked. This of course only hastens the
move into the tracker funds which is fine, until the big guys crash. When that
will be is impossible to see particularly as it feels these days as if every second
set of accounts and reports are suspect. The old Blue Chip descriptor was never
perfect. Now its nearly impossible to allocate.
For those of
us who wrote matric when ball point pens were not allowed (remember the Parker
fountain pen and the bottle of ink on the invigilator’s table?) today’s results
frenzy is a bit unsettling. And that’s before looking through the newspaper
supplement graced with a photo of the head honcho, Minister Motshega above her
assurance that for those who passed “the world is their oyster”. It seems for example
there are at least two dozen different languages that may be examined. Other unfamiliar
school subjects include Nautical Science, Dance Studies, Equine Studies and
Consumer Studies. And yet reports from employers and universities suggest that the
reading and writing skills of far too many of these poor oyster catchers are
minimal. What a mess. Unless of course you are hoping to find a job selling
stuff in Modern Greek to a dancing horse on board a ship.
However, what
is even messier is the maelstrom unleased by Number One last month when he
stated that just about anyone eligible to attend university would receive
government money. This provoked a reasonable reaction from those who actually
handle student admissions and a slightly panicky response from finance minister
Gigaba who can’t see any way of raising this kind of money beyond mugging all
foreign visitors and firing most civil servants. However, the real stupidity
has been reserved for the politicians and similar callous rabble rousing loud
mouths who are cynically raising expectations of so many wanna-be students Their contribution to the problem of the gross
mismatch between available university places and applications, which was
present even before JZ pulled the pin on his hand grenade, have been asinine in
the extreme; from telling universities to register first and find facilities afterwards,
to proposing day and night sessions to cater for demand. No one has checked what
the lecturing staff feel about this. Already under pressure to publish to keep
their posts, the good guys and gals are doubtless preparing CVs and looking up
email addresses for overseas institutions. It’s a dreadful shame.
Apparently,
our city council has published a calendar. It’s not clear who has received them.
Certainly mere ratepayers are unlikely recipients. But that’s not a problem as
the illustrations are not of the wonderful sights and vistas of Durban but mugshots
of office bearers and councillors that few would relish to have hanging in their
proximity. Astonishingly though, instead of rapidly binning these terrifying
documents some recipients have bothered to study the almanac and now a squabble
has broken out because it seems that only ANC party members will stare out at
you all year. The best remark about the spat comes from the mayor’s spokesman
who lamented that “…such a wonderfully informative calendar has been reduced to
a political football.”
At last we
might be getting some proper test cricket as the series against India gets
underway today. This should be a real contest provoking some serious yelling at
the TV screen soon.
James Greener
Friday 5th January 2018
