The
suggestion that an outfit called Viceroy Research based in New York is causing
share prices on the JSE to go down and up is not impossible. It is probably an
indication that diligent data mining is singling out shares which might be
sensitive to some well-placed rumours and short selling. There may even be real
reasons aside from illiquidity and ownership profiles why the shares are
considered overpriced. Indeed, for ages many JSE listed companies have looked
expensive when viewed under old fashioned valuation lights. The Steinhoff
debacle – which seems to get more complicated every day – has definitely
injected some edginess into the local market. Though finding this out has been
difficult. Business Day, allegedly the nation’s leading financial daily
newspaper, resumed publication after the Christmas break only yesterday.
Exactly why they felt able to shut down even while the markets were open and
while a very significant local business scandal was unfolding is hard to say. The
so-called “dead-tree” media are hard to support when they treat subscribers like
this.
Finance
Minister Gigaba may be overreaching his capacity for logic. On his way to
celebrate the ANC’s 106th birthday (Yes, there will be cake. Lots of
it) and hoping to arrive in triumphal mode he laid out the requirements for the
country to achieve even a modest 2% growth this year. Reportedly he claimed
that “There are certain decisions we need to take, and if we take them the
economy can exceed our expectations for the year.” Which begs the question firstly
what are those decisions? Why were those decisions not taken years ago? And
what if “we” don’t take them, even now? Sadly, given all that we know about the
minister and his minders, none of the plans will include getting the government
out of everyone’s way. The sole useful decision we need is to rewind and
destroy the yards of red tape that the scourge of central planning has draped all
over the landscape. Instead undoubtedly his ideas will include more instructions
about what people must do, with whom and at what price. Calamity.
It looks as
if some civil servants have been scaled back from Chocolate Digestives to Marie
biscuits with their tea. The average year on year percentage growth in National
Treasury’s monthly distributions to the ministries and provinces has plummeted
from well over 6% to just 2,5% in just a few months. This has been forced upon
them largely by the fact that tax collections are way behind what they had
expected. There just is no money for the better biscuits. Conspiracy theories
abound about the deliberate destruction of SARS from a once efficient and
feared tax collection agency to a dysfunctional institution showing leniency towards
JZ’s very many cronies and large family. If true, then the vastly more crucial
expenditure items like the social grants and education and health budgets will
also soon feel seriously strapped. No wonder Gigaba has begun to fret about the
ratings agencies. He has learned how hurtful they can be.
The National Treasury
website welcomes browsers with a huge banner advertisement inviting readers to “Name
the New Online Budget Portal” and win a ticket to watch the Budget Speech live
in Parliament. It’s astonishing that the “prize” of watching a “live”
politician drone on in Parliament would have any attraction for someone who
even knows what an online budget portal is. But if you do, please hurry.
Entries close on the 15th. My
entry is “Midden”.
Another sport
another batch of dodgy administrators. This time it’s SASCOC officials, the
folk who supposedly help deserving athletes to participate in international
events like the Olympics, who are racing to court “to clear their name”. The
levels of suspicion and distrust between the various directors and employees of
the organisation has extended to bugging phones and offices. Which merely reveals
to cynical observers that undoubtedly money is once again flowing in unusual
directions and probably not anywhere close to actual sports men and women.
James Greener
Friday 12th January 2018
