Friday 13 June 2014

THE BEAR EVADES SUPER PROPHETS



This bull market is really still solid and broad based even if it is moving the historic pe ratio on the financial and industrial index up to the knee trembling level of 20. The heavy hitters most responsible for lifting the market to yet new highs this week do tend to be those with assumed rand hedge properties (SAB, Naspers, BAT, Sasol and Aspen) which makes sense as the currency was again under pressure while the self-important ratings agencies huffed and puffed about the country’s ability to repay its loans.
Even if the platinum miners’ strike is coming to an end there are going to be no winners. The foregone revenue and wages will almost never be made up and everyone will go forward with suspicion, resentment and debts. The country is plagued with cynical unfeeling opportunistic leaders who make utterly impossible promises to followers who are totally under equipped to spot that they are bogus. As pointed out by many observers, this is perhaps the country’s biggest tragedy and shortcoming. The sole remedy is a more informed and educated populace but the suspicion that the leaders also strive to prevent that from happening is commonplace
Government is thinking about introducing a tax on mining super-profits. An ominously named Strategic Intervention in the Mining Sector discussion paper has confidently defined a super profit to be a “return on investment” greater than a “normal” level of about 15%. In the opinion of the socialists who clearly authored this paper, any money earned above this rate belongs to the people of the land and not the company or its workers. This idea is deeply objectionable on so many levels and it is impossible to be sure whose investment is being targeted. Even if is doubtful that many folk have enjoyed a double figure return from the mining industry in recent years, it is certain that blizzards of bookkeeping will be employed to minimise this impost. Those people of the land looking forward to a windfall handout may be rather disappointed.
Hlaudi Motsoeneng is obviously finding his new position as head of the national broadcaster very onerous and time consuming. It leaves him with little opportunity to find a wife. But the proud and grateful leaders of his tribe in Limpopo have rallied round and offered him a selection of 10 young women from the province. Hopefully he will find one to make him happy, unlike that pesky lady Public Protector Thuli Madonsela who is complaining that his appointment and remuneration is rather dodgy.
Already this winter has produced some minimum temperatures which amaze even our emigrants in Canada. Predictably Eskom is finding itself unable to meet demand and load-shedding is back in force. Here in our region of the kingdom, we are also faced with a possible water shortage due to theft and vandalism (being escalated to sabotage by the infuriated officials) of a critical part of pipeline. Those of us who prefer cold beer and wine over hot tea and coffee are unaffected.
The first Brazilian player who managed to score a goal in the correct net during the opening World Cup match, was moments before involved in a physical contact incident that  which in rugby would have earned him an instant red card. Perhaps the reason why we oval ball fans find soccer so baffling is the refusal of the incredibly wealthy and arrogant suits who control the wonderful game to use proven technology to identify infringements. Presumably someone is benefiting from letting human “fallibility” influence outcomes. Tomorrow the obviously exhausted ‘bokke will hopefully avoid injury in the match with Wales before the critical tests against the Wallabies and All Blacks. In order to assure a steady flow of TV money organisers agree to a packed calendar and discard wounded veterans in favour of young players eager to earn a national cap. This sport too has become a production line.
James Greener
Friday the 13th.