As the reporting season for December year-end companies draws to a
close, those firms who have postponed revealing that things have been rather
tough for them are mumbling quietly and publishing the smallest possible
so-called short-form announcements. While this could be a reason for the All
Share index postponing another attack on the 41 000 level, undoubtedly the rash
of public holidays is diverting attention from the markets.
As feared, the roads here in Durban
have become infested with cavalcades of BRICS bigwigs. Suppliers of blue lights
and sirens are enjoying a bumper season. One convoy I counted had 28 vehicles
speeding through the traffic lights. He or she must have been really late for
breakfast.
An interesting lesson in market values has been delivered by this
conference. During both the World Cup three years ago and the continental kick-about
last month, when there were matches here in Durban, a war ship (sometimes even a
submarine) would appear in the bay protecting the players and fans. Just what
threat was expected from offshore was never explained but clearly someone was
nervous about having so many highly priced hoofers of the round ball playing so
close to the shore. So far, however, the BRICS leaders and their entourages
have merited not even a man with a big stick in a leaky rowboat out there in
the briny. Just shows what value we attach to those guys and girls. Or is it
just that we don’t have any spare warships right now?
Most of the proceedings of the BRICS knees-up are far too dreary to follow
but the subject of forming a development bank is interesting. Where on earth
would SA come up with a capital contribution in line with our “partners” in
such a venture? The old story of using one horse and one rabbit when making horse
and rabbit stew comes to mind. In this case it would be one horse, three asses
and a gerbil. Obviously we see ourselves as the borrower in this plan, not the
lender.
It’s also pretty hard to understand the Cyprus saga other than getting the
idea that yet again there’s a situation developing which could hasten the end
of the euro currency. The breathtaking aspect of it all is that nation’s
leaders who were responsible for steering the ship right onto well-charted
rocks are now confident that they are the only ones capable of getting it off
before she sinks. The captains surged up into the crow’s nest and scanned their
island for someone else’s loot with which to plug the hole. They quickly
spotted the large cash balances lying in the country’s banks and set about
deciding how to steal it without actually using that word. Allegedly much of
the money they are eyeing may already be stolen as it was deposited by large
men with strange accents using dodgy documents. Seemingly this may render the
proposed “tax” more acceptable! However, guiltless Cypriots whose savings
accounts would also be targeted for the nation’s “bail-out” were not keen on
the idea and everything is being rethought. The seed, however, has been planted
and bureaucrats, finance ministries and venal administrations world- wide are
getting a glint in their eye and thumbing through their own banking records.
It is likely that the US stock market is benefiting from
inflows of money from European citizens throughout the continent worried about
how this may all turn out. The gold price is probably also healthier as a
result.
As the Sharks’ try drought intensified I received requests to
reconsider my decision to support them while the Lions suffer their undeserved
relegation. Last Saturday when I was
unable to get near a TV and shout for the black and whites, that drought was
well and truly broken. I expect this utter coincidence may nevertheless
strengthen the cause of my detractors.
Please enjoy a mellow and safe Easter weekend
James Greener
Maundy Thursday 2013
