THE IDEAS OF MARCH

Our runt has lost around 10% of its value against the “big” currencies in the past 6 weeks. Another similar sized drop will take us to the lows reached in September last year. This is very disappointing news and instead of looking to make announcements abut relaxing barriers to business and trade, the very unhelpful plan to nationalise the Reserve Bank is getting all the government’s economic attention. Marxists are so misguided when they believe that a central bank can control a currency. Just who is responsible for the rand’s current decline is unknown but it’s certain that there are more rands being offered than there dollars (or pounds etc) to buy them.

And in the Party HQs the drawing up of the electoral “lists” are in full swing. These reveal each person’s place in the party’s standing order. So far the number of utter deadbeats, failures and frauds named by the ANC make it clear that this list must have formed part of the deal that was struck to allow Cyril to become president. Absolutely no intelligent free-acting politician promising a New Dawn would have selected so many bad ‘uns.

For those of us not actually trying to run a university infiltrated with young people who are so obviously unsuited to become graduates, it seems easy. Simply identify and immediately ban from ever attending any tertiary learning institution in this country, anyone who is violent or destroys property. While these folk may one day become politicians and join the other bottom-feeders sucking on the public purse, their present behaviour is totally undeserving of  support by taxpayers.  Oh, and any loans that they have received from the state so far, must be repaid. Of course, the authorities are hamstrung by bleeding hearts wittering on about “rights” – things which never existed --- and a pitifully slow and expensive legal system.

Obviously the Eurocentric jokiness of April Fool’s Day has no place in the deadly serious agenda for the board meeting of the New Development Bank to take place in Cape Town on that day. Remember this is the outfit formed by the BRICS nations to do all kinds of good stuff in a “Partnership for Sustainable Development” The press release goes on in this vein of mumbo jumbo for many paragraphs before hinting at the real issue which is “that there still exists a wide financing deficit”. Ah. Fancy that. There’s the punch line. Usual thing. More money out than money in. Pesky capitalists – always droning on about getting a return on their investment.

Not all of the cabinet ministers dozed trough the explanation about the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Quite a few have recently woven the neat phrase into recent speeches to demonstrate how on top of things they are. But they didn’t study the handout to the talk that warns that all this clever stuff could see about half the current jobs simply disappear. Hmm. Best not get too excited about the future until all the kids can read and count and then develop clever, fast selling computer games. And accounting apps that catch the crooks.

Not too long ago a million of anything, especially money, was a great deal. Those of us slightly more used to big numbers and scientific terminology could glibly talk about k for thousands, “bar” for a million and even a “yard” for a billion. The fun was to watch journalists (and presidents) stumble over getting the terminology right. But now in the age of the Guptas, Joostes and government scale corruption, anything less than a billion is chump change. Although criminals seem not yet able to talk of trillions they are already in use in our GDP and government expenditure records, and of course the three largest shares on the JSE have market cap measured in trillions.

The death of Charlie Whiting, the key man at any F1 race just days before the new season begins in Australia this weekend, is immensely sad. Amongst the egos and the money in that sport he seemed like a good guy. Because of his obsession with safety there are more drivers alive than deserve to be. Whether a similar outcome has happened in rugby because of close monitoring of the tip-tackle is much harder to say.

James Greener

Friday 15^th March 2019

PRESIDENT TO OPEN A RUBBISH BIN

One day we will learn the details of the deal that was struck in the wee hours of a December night at the ANC National Conference in 2017. The following day Cyril Ramaphosa was elected president of the party, and thereafter became President of the country. This was a massive surprise to many, including ex-president Zuma, who seemed confident that his ex-wife would land the job. Nevertheless, the elevation of this supposedly highly successful and very wealthy businessman, with a penchant for breeding buffalos, was greeted with relief and joy by equally many others. Sadly, whatever restrictions and conditions formed part of that alleged deal, his behaviour as President have revealed him to be a true politician, tailoring his views to his audience. Yesterday, despite explaining to another meeting just weeks ago that it was impossible, he announced that the Reserve Bank will soon be nationalised. In the context of the extreme socialist policies espoused by his government, this is not good. Already the motor mouths are going on about the Bank “creating” jobs.

Sadly, by the time you get to read this you will be too late to attend the National Launch of the Good Green Deeds Programme which happened this morning in East London. Despite his very full diary President Cyril will be there, Very laudably the programme is “aimed at changing behaviour towards littering, illegal dumping and towards waste in general”. Without denigrating in any way this program and its aims, one does wonder why our leaders don’t first just enforce the already quite severe existing laws about where and how one can throw stuff away. Beverage cans and fast food packaging are the nation’s main indicator of population density showing that previous campaigns like the decades old “Zap it in a Zibi Can” never made an impact.  It would probably also be worth testing if putting even a tiny value on virtually any type of waste will attract the attention of the frighteningly large number of people who scavenge for a living. The fact that scrap metal and cardboard packaging is so quickly retrieved from domestic rubbish awaiting collection must be a guideline.

The legal eagles are ringing up satisfying fee-notes as the unending squabble of who was in charge at Eskom when it did the bad stuff, stumbles on. Now it seems that the Eskom folk who arranged the R25bn loan from the Chinese are calling for help too. Given that Eskom has convinced the regulator to approve a sequence of eye-watering double-digit price increases just to keep the lights on, it seems repayment of the loan on time is in jeopardy. The lender has a reputation for getting upset when this happens. This is a distinct case of homeward bound chickens looking for their roost and tax payers are on the floor level of the coop.

The most recent National Treasury publication of how things are going in the collection of revenue and the allocation of disbursements was as usual released right on schedule. It revealed a record 12-month period deficit of R226bn as tax revenue slipped, but government spending remained doggedly robust. Undoubtedly the revised targets for these two important accounting totals announced in the recent Budget are hopelessly unattainable and reality must soon dawn. On the income side the proportion of a compliant law-abiding individual’s income that is collected by the government is nearly 50% but the numbers and wealth of the few members of that species are diminishing daily. The only lever left to tug is expenditure and President Cyril needs savagely to trim his payroll, while insisting on massive improvements in productivity from the survivors. He has a big problem on his hands and needs to start ignoring what ever that midnight deal required,

Yet another feast of oval ball sport for 15s and 7s, plus round ball stuff on TV this weekend. Did you see the size of the  UEFA Champions League trophy that was brought out to SA for a spot of sun and beach time? That needs a first-class seat all its own! And of course, the Proteas have an ODI series to wrap up.

James Greener

Friday 8^th March 2019 International Women's Day

HAPPY NEW TAX YEAR

This week saw the launch of Tyme Bank., which will offer so-called branchless banking, although there will be “kiosks” in certain chain stores and the tellers at those stores will be able to handle simple transactions. There are a few interesting aspects to this development, one of which is the doubtless correct claim that this will be greatly appreciated by the rural communities who have to travel long distances to reach a bricks and mortar bank. Another is that these bankers must have satisfied themselves that there is plenty of money (specifically cash) for which the owner now wants to move from the hidey-hole under the mattress. It will be interesting to see if there is a decline in the Reserve Bank’s record of notes and coins in circulation, which might even have an impact on the crime world where suitcases of folding stuff are the preferred unit of influence.

There’s an intriguing spat taking place between two organisation that essentially do the same thing. Both the Black Business Council and Business Unity SA see themselves as the “voice of black business”. Presumably there are subscription fees and other money sources at stake here. The presidents of each organisation are accusing the other’s outfit of not being true to the race mantra that black is good and white is bad. Naturally the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Radical Economic Transformation have also been dragged into the squabble. The sad thing is that out there, there are South Africans of every kind seeking to make a living between suppliers and customers who struggling to withstand the depredations of the state and its satraps. Post-budget detailed analyses have revealed the terrifying extent of the tax burden, state interference and misappropriation of public money. True economic freedom will happen only once individuals realise that belonging to any organisation whether it be a bowling club, a trade union of workers or a confederation of supposedly influential leaders, is worthwhile only if the benefits match or exceed the costs of membership. All too often it’s the founders and office bearers who win all the prizes.

Only the good folk who attended the Alleluia Ministries gathering to witness the “resurrection” of an allegedly dead fellow from the confines of his coffin will be able to say if they got value for their contribution to the collection plate. The rest of us who watched, for free, the video of the spoof certainly enjoyed it and the political cartoonists who equated the event to attempts to return the ANC to life once again thanked their lucky stars for the material that living in South Africa provides.

The complex but vital task of allocating chunks of radio spectrum to satisfy the non-stop growth in demand is one of the tasks handled by Independent Communications Authority of South Africa. Because this is a resource freely provided by physics but worth a great deal to the users, it is a task that needs to be done extremely fairly and transparently by technocrats who understand the product, and how it is used.  But ICASA seems to have few people like that on their staff. What they did have is a newly fired chairman who has just been sentenced to 20 year for fraud, and so becomes among the few so far caught and sentenced for misuse of public money. The twist is that the crime was carried out in his previous job as acting CEO at the Land Bank. You can’t make this up.

Neither can you believe that our Vice-President is confident that the national shortage of electricity is because demand has outstripped supply, and this is evidence of satisfactory economic growth. Umm. No. The truth is that the supply is shrinking and so therefore is everything else. There really is very little growth happening sir.

The Blizbokke are missing the key men who have defected from the Sevens format to the 15-man game presumably because it pays better. Unfortunately, because the 7s tournament is in Vegas this week end it will be difficult to stay awake. It’s very hot and humid in Durban at present and the man at the end of the bar is certain it will affect the Stormers who are here to take on the Sharks who are basking at the top of the league table But Lions / Bulls at 2pm will be far easier. Discussion at Cricket Society last night focussed on the woeful state of Proteas fielding. Indeed.

James Greener

1^st March 2019 (Beer Day in Iceland)