Friday 19 August 2022

RETURNS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE ARE EXACTLY THAT

 It’s exasperating to watch politicians charging into battle against “inflation” with laws and more laws, when it is state interference in the operation of free markets that is mostly to blame for money losing its value. This week there was a photo of the great and good in US politics watching President Biden signing into law the Inflation Reduction Act. This act will spend USD 370bn in “climate investment” over the next 10 years. and could cut US greenhouse-gas emissions by about 30–40% below 2005 levels by 2030. Not only is the name of the bill and claims about its potential effect, great examples of hubris; that word “investment” is so misleading when the only returns apparent, will accrue to a few scientists with great PR poking about in dodgy data. Naturally those “scientists” and their shills have already complained that they will need more much more money than this to make a decent livelihood from climate change.

The headline to the story tells it all even if the details are complicated and opaque “The Crypto Geniuses Who Vaporized a Trillion Dollars”. It’s a classic tale involving a couple of mates from the same school who thought they could monopolise and control a niche financial market related to these puzzling crypto currencies and lots and lots of other people’s money. Naturally there’s a luxury yacht, now up for sale  named “Much Wow” (an insiders joke apparently), bobbing through the tale. Their outfit is (was?) called Three Arrows Capital, with several corporate locations, now abandoned. Twitter responds very obligingly to any search for 3AC.  And one can see photos of the yacht and the clever boys themselves, The “investors” which include some allegedly dodgy characters who seemed to have been the lenders of last resort in the dying days of the caper are camera shy. Their reaction to finding themselves at the end of the (non) value chain will be the stuff of lurid headlines. Unsurprisingly the pair of geniuses have done the smart thing and also disappeared.

For a nation where reportedly only about half of the drivers on our roads have ever obtained a driver’s licence, the present squabble about whether the five-year expiry period is legally enforceable, seems somewhat moot. Firstly, it is claimed that the 60-month limit exists only because the physical licence card degrades in that time. Personal experience suggests this is true and reminds us that the contract to supply the sole card embossing machine for this task in the country went to a friend of Jacob Z – our previous president. Secondly and far more likely it is that the renewal process generates a useful regular income for the state for very little effort on their part.  But not even mentioned in the debate, is that it might be wise in a nation with our terrifying road accident death toll record, for drivers to be fully retested from time to time. However, for that to happen the absolute requirement for all legitimate and competent drivers must be that testing for and reissuing a licence should be a one stop process available at multiple locations open for long hours especially at weekends. The current eye test has doubtful utility.

The adage that lotteries are a voluntary tax on the mathematically illiterate has always amused Tidemarks. It seems true that the prize winners in the national Lotto games do seem to get what they are promised, which is around half of the ticket sale’s income. The other half should then be distributed to the beneficiaries who have been successful in applying for funds from the Lotto. [Therein lies another seedy story of racism and corruption]. Naturally the administrators and operators of the lottery do need to recover the running costs for this process. But in what is sadly now standard operating procedure for any state agency, the ruling party cadres infest the process and simply steal the money before the distributions.  This week’s the National Lotteries Commissioner, Ms Thabang Mampane, resigned after it was discovered that her lavish new home was bought with Lotto money. Her salary incidentally is recorded as R4.5m pa. Her previous job was COO of SABC, the state-owned broadcaster. Shame on these people.

That walk through the Long Room at Lords for players coming back to the dressing room after scoring a duck must be the stuff of nightmares.

James Greener

19th August 2022