MONEY FOR NOTHING

Those of us with a bearish inclination are on average wrong most of the time because fortunately bear markets last for shorter periods than the bull markets that separate them. For example, the rand was very week at the start of this year but has now recovered at least half that loss. Obviously, the alarming rise in lawlessness especially amongst our lawgivers and their cronies that currently dominates the news channels has no impact on sentiment. The previous president has declined a high court order to come and tell a commission his side of the state capture story. And the current one has firmly reiterated that building unity within the ruling party is his highest priority. Anyone coming into financial markets for the first time may be puzzled by why the “science” is not more exact and forecasting more accurate. Time-series of prices in financial markets comprise one of the longest and most accurate data bases of any kind in the world. And yet no one has managed to tease out unambiguous signals about future movements. To this end it is instructive to learn that there are 417 economists on the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Attending a meeting of this lot must be tedious and repetitive. There can be barely a single “fact” that we have been told about the dreaded virus that has not subsequently been adjusted or scrapped. This highlights the tricky and ever evolving nature of medical research and understanding but disappoints those who are used to the modern world having effective and immediate solutions to most problems. Less worried however are the leaders who have even said how this Covid-19 pandemic has provided a great opportunity for political interventions. A feature of the past year has been the undisguised delight with which naturally inclined authoritarian regimes made up rules as they went along. At every stage in the unfolding crisis, funds earmarked for helping the victims of the disease and the even more lethal economic lockdown programs have been looted and stolen. These crimes have often been carried out at the very moment when our President has been assuring us that corruption was under control. The imminent initiation of a vaccination program already has spawned schools of sharks and bottom feeders. Our leaders missed a perfect opportunity to cheer us all up a little when they were ferried out to the airport, on to the apron and right up to the plane that was delivering the first consignment of vaccinations. The bigwigs emerged into the rain, each under cover of a brolly handled by a personal umbrella jockey. They gazed at a bundle of cargo on a pallet. Which may or may not have been all or part of the consignment since none of us know what a million doses of vaccine look like. Words were said and hands were shaken but no one cracked the joke that this scene could easily have been crafted by the Monty Python comedy team. It was all profoundly serious but ended in farce when President Cyril also used the occasion to nominate the Cuban doctors (a mercenary team who arrived 9 months ago to help with the pandemic and who have been spotted at work only rarely) for the Nobel Peace Prize. Another weekend, another series of power cuts plague the nation. The inference is that there are just too few experienced and competent maintenance engineers capable of fixing stuff at a rate faster than it breaks down. Presumably, there is also the wet coal excuse available since the nation has enjoyed substantial rains recently. It has been pointed out by others even more cynical than I that local suppliers of sandpaper are devastated by the news that the Australian Cricket team have decided that it would be foolish to come here for a Test series. The Aussies have cited Covid-19 as the reason not to come to SA. But it is more likely to do with being one of the “Big Three” in world cricket (Australia, England & India) demonstrating that they can determine their own schedules. Or maybe it is just that they hate being reminded about being caught cheating. James Greener Friday 5th February 2021