SANDY BOTTOMS

This week an especially incompetent and corrupt cabinet minister felt that it was necessary to define the word “beach” thus highlighting that we are in the grip of idiots and that we desperately need someone in whom we can believe and trust to tell us simply what is going on. The sole definite fact is that the world is coping with a new viral infection which is extremely unpleasant to get and can be fatal. Further it seems that no one has yet found a method to deal with the spread of this really nasty bug. Most national attempts have manged only to destroy great swathes of their economies with a series of ever hardening “lockdowns”. The absence so far of a fast and reliable test that unambiguously confirms if a patient is infected and to what degree, is a serious obstacle to managing this pandemic. So too is the lack of an effective universally adopted treatment regime. Both these medical shortfalls have been fertile grounds for rumour and quackery. For example, all stocks of Disprin vanished quickly off suppliers shelves as the word spread that a nostrum could be made based on this common analgesic. The face mask “war” has raged fiercely from the outset, but we are still none the wiser if wearing one is proven to offer anything more that an indicator of resigned compliance with overzealous regulation. This is what the beach definition is all about and which has enabled a second equally dreadful vindictive hat-wearing minister triumphantly to announce that the police patrols have arrested thousands of citizens who now will have criminal records for the crime of being beside the seaside. In effect it seems that almost every coastal property in the nation is now a potential a crime scene. Tragically, the most emotive and harrowing statistic of all – the count of deaths attributable to Covid-19 -- appears to be open to political tampering and adjustment. The clarion cry that: “We are pursuing these hateful lockdown programs in order to save lives” needs statistics to show that this is true. And it may not be. Which is why we need that trustworthy soul to tell us what is really going on. Now that the dust has settled a bit, it may be useful to scratch through some of the numbers that our diligent public servants have been publishing, regular as clockwork right through the Covid Calamity. Some series like the Gross National Product (GDP) have been grievously damaged. It has always been a data set that invites criticism and suspicion and it has not coped well with the effects of the lockdown. The ways in which people are trying to recover will certainly never have occurred to the designers of the data collections and anomalies and omissions can confidently be expected for years to come. Remember that 50% down followed by 50% up does not return you to your starting point! The national exchequer figures, while probably more exact, also tell a grim story. Average monthly tax collection is barely above R100bn. This is 10% below the peak achieved before the economy was crushed. The number of “deserving poor” has rocketed and despite promises to cull the public sector wage bill, the cost to government for supporting these two groups requires an amount of R150bn a month This difference is, as everyone is fond of saying, unsustainable. We once had a president who did not understand big numbers. The concept of negative numbers is clearly baffling to many more. One analyst who is handy with figures has concluded that proposed policies like the Basic Income Grant will need every one of the already very few taxpayers to pay an extra R5 000 in tax a month. Ummmm. Nope! Your move Mr President. A totally unexpected object from the development of the internet is the high-quality camera which is embedded in the micro-computers that we all use to connect with “the net”. Not only is it likely that virtually every event anywhere is recorded several times, but that recording is shared around the world instantaneously. So, for example, the local policeman who was pursuing his side hustle of using a police van to deliver some booze got exposed. And the shirtless man who invaded the US Capital Building wearing a fur hat with horns instantly became a folk icon. And who did not enjoy the video of the cops desperately trying to free their van from the rising tide? Schadenfreud anyone? Well what else is there to watch in these miserable sporting hiatuses? James Greener Friday 15th January 2021