PLEASE DECLARE YOUR BITCOIN TRADING PROFITS

Share prices world wide have taken a bit of a hit in the last few days. Is this due in part to a rising expectation that the US election on Tuesday will be won by the Democrats? Removing Trump from the Presidency may probably be bad for most industries except for a few tech behemoths. Have you heard of the alleged existence of a Technocracy? But those giant corporations are the companies that dominate the US indices so perhaps the falls are signalling the view that Trump will be re-elected. In recent years opinion polls have been very wrong about election outcomes all over the world as the social media shuffles and swaps truth and falsehood at the speed of light. And bloody-minded voters have lied to pollsters. Soon it will all be revealed, except of course that the USA, for all its might, seems to adopt voting methods and systems that can generate huge and lasting controversies. COSATU, a trade union organisation, is rather disappointed in chef Tito Mboweni’s medium term budget speech. They are not alone. It seems that Tito finally got the memo – it must have been mixed up with his collection of recipe books – and is now back on track with the party line. And so, the key point of his speech which he delivered on Wednesday in parliament, is that the ANC is determined to try and resuscitate SAA, the utterly broke and now half dismantled state airline. A document accompanying the speech spells out exactly how much will be deducted from the original budget allocation to each of the 40 or so ministries, to make up the R10bn that someone thinks will be the price of this resurrection. In consequence, most of COSATU’s members will not get the pay rises promised in an agreement made in the era before pandemics and shattered economies. Uh oh. It is quite astonishing how the ANC and the government press on with grandiose pie-in-the-sky plans and schemes for the future when every single scrap of credible evidence paints a picture of a near technically bankrupt state. National Treasury is barely able to find the money each month to cover salaries for state employees, handouts for social benefit recipients, and interest to pay the lenders. To do so it needs to borrow, so that last item gets bigger every month. When is someone, well President Cyril, going to attack the expenditure side? For that is our sole route to any chance of salvation. This old-fashioned stockbroker is rather alarmed by the proliferation of get rich quick schemes that are being touted based on the new asset class known as crypto currencies. Even the tax collector, SARS, has added a question about this intangible asset to the personal income tax return form. Presumably, they too are intrigued by the claims of huge trading profits that await investors in these products. Doesn’t this somewhat belie the alleged attraction of this currency as being beyond the reach of nosy governments? Tidemarks willingly admits to not understanding Bitcoin and its competitors and for that reason alone would not “invest” in anything like that. The “valuation” of these instruments poses many problems to this old bear who is learning that even audited financial statements mean extraordinarily little. The total amount of money available to sport via TV rights, advertising and sponsorships and even ticket sales is a finite amount and must surely be declining. The last of these funding sources is generating almost nothing as the majority opinion is that sports stadia are deadly places that fans must avoid. The absence of crowds is now affecting my enjoyment of the televised events and watching habits and if this is common, perhaps even marketing spend may be suffering by now. Car seat hopping in Formula 1 has reached Olympic standard and those who like to remind us how terrible slavery was, might consider the way that soccer players are priced and traded! And the IPL cricket is a circus with fireworks, lights and dancing girls. Rugby has become a geography exam. Are these all the symptoms of an industry going through a change of life adjusting to less money? James Greener Friday 30th October 2020