The little mentioned
truth about investing is that there are no truths. All the wonderful sayings,
rules of thumb, conventional wisdom and the rest have as many examples of
failing as of succeeding. For example, the yield of the government’s long dated
bond ought to signal something about confidence in that nation. Allegedly
lenders demand higher yields from borrowers that might in the worst case not be
around some time in the future. From all the whining and rhetoric about
President Trump one could be led to believe that he was running that nation into
the ground (and there are some numbers which support this view) but today the US 10 year bond yield is a mere 2% -- the
lowest in 3 years and a sign of confidence? Meanwhile our equivalent bond is yielding
around 8% -- hardly a warning signal that this a nation which may be soon be
rated “junk”.
State of the Nation
is really a highly misleading title for the sort of speeches that our
Presidents make from time to time. Aside from giving people an excuse to get
togged up in the most amazing garb, by its very name its content should be
delivered entirely without using the future tense. We want to hear what our government
has managed to do for us and as a result exactly where we are now. Instead we
are treated to a celebration of what it is going to do – which experience
suggests is never going to happen anyway. Last night we were offered a
selection of President Cyril’s dreams. These included “…a South Africa where
the first entirely new city built in the democratic era rises, with
skyscrapers, schools, universities, hospitals and factories,”. Hmm well yes
that sounds like fun, but first can we please hear from the erstwhile chairman
of the Eskom War Room what has been done to provide enough electricity for the
existing cities. The sole interesting but unsurprising item he told us of the
future was that Eskom was going to gets its wodge of taxpayer’s money earlier
than budgeted. And by the way, isn’t the reference to skyscrapers endearingly
quaint.?
Whatever one
thinks about the advisability of public figures using social media internet platforms
to communicate with their audience and bypass the more conventional news channels,
the phenomena is alive and growing apace. While it certainly is a great tool for
the immediate dissemination of facts and real news, leaders and officials who
take to Twitter to offer their opinions, prejudices and preconceptions constitute
a proper hazard. This is because of the preponderance of what President Trump famously
derides as “fake news” and also, just as importantly, it can showcase the
author’s shortcomings and ignorance (another supposed Trump claim to fame).
This week our ambassador to Denmark illustrated her utter lack of talent for a
post in diplomacy by heaping scorn, invective, lies and insults on a minority
group in her country. That President Cyril has not responded with an immediate
recall of this disappointing civil servant also strengthens our impression that
he fears something and is unsure of his legitimacy.
An
interesting contribution to the debate about the state of SA sport is the assertion
that sport is just as corrupt as any other enterprise Allegedly most of the
money that is destined for the recognition and development of young talent is
adroitly repurposed by the governing bodies of the various sports .. Many sports
men and women are poor or reluctant administrators and the task of negotiating
the lucrative TV rights falls upon administrators capable of doing so. Sadly,
many are untrustworthy and with few actual athletes on governing bodies
redirecting cash flow to flying one’s family first class to the tiddly winks World
Cup in Las Vegas attracts scant attention. Tidemarks has long campaigned for government
to withdraw entirely from sport. After all it doesn’t have the money nor
frankly the skills nor interest beyond demographics. This year, in a budget
shared with arts, culture and recreation and in which a third went to civil
servant salaries the allocation was R11bn. Allowing taxpayers to claim rebates up to that
total amount on a first come first served basis against suitable proof of
donation would work far better.
James Greener
Winter Solstice 2019
