The share price
bear appears to have been awakened by the sound of reindeer footfall and is loping
about dealing out hefty slaps with razor sharp claws. The Overall Share Price Indices
in most exchanges look set to close the year lower than they opened. The gold
price is showing signs of demand. Despite what the futurists say about how the millennials
are transitioning to a world where their smart phone is all they need to
arrange their affairs, not everyone is convinced that the block chain and
tap-and-go is about to displace all other forms of wealth storage and transfer.
It’s impossible to pay with your phone if the power is out!
We have
churlishly remarked before that the GDP numbers published every 3 months have a
feeling of not being as meaningful as they ought to be. They are altogether way
too volatile with suspiciously large swings from one period to another. Plus,
there are puzzling internal inconsistencies. As always, the Stats SA publication
is packed with all you might ever want to know about our nation’s economic
activity, with handy downloads of even more numbers dating back to when life
began. But our concern is that the systems and standards for the origination
and collection of the raw data has changed in ways not always well explained. Understandably,
agricultural output is traditionally all over the place as weather and
commodity prices blow hither and yon. But why mining should be so variable is
hard to understand. Nevertheless, the 3rd quarter results released
this week were suitably reviving with the assertion that positive economic
growth of a whopping 2.2%pa had been enjoyed. This was mostly due to a huge
surge in manufacturing. Miraculously this improvement was achieved (before the
current season of power cuts) with zero growth in the contribution to the economy
from the electricity generating sector. Fishy.
Somehow the
rather natty panama hat worn at a slightly rakish angle conveyed the impression
that Eskom Chairman Jabu Mabuza at the media briefing wasn’t as concerned by
the power cuts as the rest of us are. His assertion that the people and not the
utility were responsible for the lack of electricity was a novel one and not
widely shared by motorists stuck in gridlock for hours. Even if some consumers
are paying for their electricity – and not, as now seems widespread, simply
stealing it – Eskom still can’t get even that money to the coal producers who
understandable are reluctant to deliver coal to a deadbeat organisation. Eskom
have an alarming habit of spending any money the have on things that do absolutely
nothing towards getting the generators running. The catering budget for
welcoming and departing functions for executives and board members at State
Owned Enterprises must rival the salary bill. We must be one of the few nations
where the names and qualifications of the people appointed by the government to
run boring but vital utilities are well known and widely discussed. It’s because
they are mostly incapable of doing it.
When are we
going to see some arrests and better still some convictions and best of all
long jail time for the numerous felons alleged to have stolen public money? And
come to think of it, some private money as well. The only one that most of us
can think of was Jacob Zuma’s financial advisor (the first of several
spectacular duds in that post) who was granted medical parole because of a
terminal condition a dozen years ago. Fortunately for the poor man, his doctor
turned out to be as bad at medicine as he was at finance. There is much
anticipation that President Cyril has picked a good one in appointing Shamila
Batohi to the top of National Prosecuting Authority. I do hope she has ordered
that her office be thoroughly cleaned before moving in. It’s had some very
unsavoury characters in it of late. And that’s on her side of the desk too. Get
to work young lady!
The
Blitzbokke had a very poor start in the Sevens Series in Dubai last week, but
with a few of the well-known playmakers returning to the side for the Cape Town
leg this weekend things could improve. This is one code where the world rugby bosses
appear to have got nearly everything right. It is really a very entertaining
weekend of sport.
James
Greener
Friday 7th
December 2018
