While we sit
around waiting for the flow of bad news to abate just a little, the share markets are soaring. In the US the
bull market in equity prices compared to bond prices is entering its eighth
year and the relative outperformance is almost 3 times. Although it has
strengthened a tad towards the end of the week, our poor currency is not
looking forward to a bumper Christmas season. A rand will buy you just 5
British new pence or 7 US cents. And for those of us contemplating offshore
excursions or purchases these are awful conversion factors to keep in mind.
It’s usually
worrying when our president says he has applied his mind and this time his
pronouncements about the country’s need for more nuclear power stations is no
exception. When a man who finds large numbers a challenge, starts to talk about
Megawatts and other tricky units it quickly slides into incomprehension. Having
an innumerate and non-technical leader is not a problem if there are savvy
aides close by. However, there are very few cabinet colleagues with either the knowledge
or the courage to venture a discrete cough and offer some guidance on the
difference between a Gigabyte and a Gigaba for example.
Mind you the deputy
pres. offered the opinion this week that the national airline SAA could return
to profitability. This would require some very fancy number footwork and would
it be after repaying the taxpayers the tens of billions we have poured into keeping
this very sick puppy alive? Any guessing game about just how much the
government would get from selling SAA must include zero as a price.
Zero percent
is the opening offer for a number of civil service category pay rises. So far
this is almost the only shot fired in the direction of controlling government
expenditure but it’s going to fall well short of its target. Armed with Eskom’s
utterly unreasonable and cynically mendacious claim to be allowed to increase
electricity prices by 19% the unions are onto the 0% idea like a pack of
hounds. A similar number being demanded by students as the amount of the next
fee increase also has no chance of success.
Bets are being
laid on the possibility that the ANC will postpone or even cancel their much-anticipated
December conference at which Zuma’s successor as party leader and therefor
state president will be elected. In common with many processes designed by
liberals eager to demonstrate that total democracy is possible (it’s not), the
selection process is very messy and open to endless challenges from unsuccessful
hopefuls. Political commentators can feel all grown up and cosmopolitan by
rattling on about districts being “sown up” and “delivered to” this or that
candidate. But right up to and beyond the coronation, the violent and deadly
infighting will continue. Here in KZN large numbers of party office bearers
have been assassinated, with the death toll there being equally as unacceptable
as the utterly shocking number of white farmers who are being murdered.
Also in Natal,
the Pietermaritzburg municipality courageously ordered a count of their movable
assets and reported the results. It’s puzzling that no official spotted that
the valuation of R494 000 placed on 5 missing firearms seemed incompatible
with a similar number of lost fire engines worth just R700 000. And that’s
before enquiring how one can lose even one fire engine. A delightful aside in
the report is the remark that many staff members had “disrespected the
verification process by locking their offices”. The enumerators had therefore
been prevented from counting air conditioners, computers, cabinets, cupboards
and chairs. Wowee
I was treated
very kindly by the locals in The Station Pub in Franschhoek last Saturday. Especially
once the Sharks fell into their usual second half torpor and when the noisy
Province supporters had satisfied themselves that referee Jaco Pyper’s alleged
bias against them was not evident.
James Greener
Friday 3rd November 2017
