Almost 10 000 points up in
the week. Wow. The shorts must be squeezed out of all recognition. So why the
sudden optimism? Surely it’s not just the news that Barclays Bank are retiring
(very) hurt. The rand has improved, but not enough for all this buying to be
foreign based. Anyway the buyers have regained their style and no price is too
high. It’s almost like the old days with the heavy lifting being done by
Billiton, Anglo, Sasol and SA Brews! The investing stuff is easy.
Yet another consequence of the
tragic but alarming flow of refugees and migrants into Europe is that it is already
impacting wages for unskilled and semi-skilled workers. This is likely to contribute
to holding down inflationary pressures in that zone. Which of course makes it
even harder for us with our inflexible and generous labour laws to compete. But
there are just some glimmers of light showing through. Gold has already leapt,
but the baser commodities like iron ore are maybe starting to bottom out and
turn around. It is suggested that even in China steel prices are twitching a
little. It’s inevitable of course. Prices and economies can’t remain unchanged for
very long because every one of us is always trying their hardest to improve
their own circumstances and all the little bits add up.
Which is how Stats SA arrives at one
of those mysterious numbers it releases from time to time. Published in a 19-page
booklet every three months, the GDP figure (R781 billion for the 4th
quarter 2015) is the sum of data from 11 different economic sectors and sources.
Comparison with the previous result reveals that “… the unadjusted real GDP at
market prices increased by 0.6 per cent year on year.” Now that’s not good news
if only because undoubtedly the population grew much faster in the same period.
Fortunately, the growth was positive even if only just. Going backwards is a bad thing and if it
persists for too long the official “Recession” flag must be hoisted and
politicians wear their “I am going to do something about this” face. But only once the social engineers and
planners step away from the levers of power and go and find real jobs making
stuff and adding value will there be any chance of us enjoying the 5% and
better growth we so desperately need.
The folk who maintain the voter’s
roll say that very many of us don’t have addresses. In the first place that
would make the allocation of voters to wards and constituencies a tad difficult
and somewhat deceitful for local elections. And secondly it raises a few
questions about how people fulfil the proof of residence requirement for opening
a bank account and using a cell phone.
And then there’s the bright spark
who thought it would be nice (and comparatively cheap even) if the next meeting
of some Durban City employees be held on a luxury cruise liner steaming up the
coast. Has he even heard of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, let alone his
appeal for public sector belt-tightening?
Perhaps the biggest issue
bedevilling our country at the moment is the hostilities at the Revenue Services
(ironic word) agency. The internet is
luminous with leaks and allegations about who knew and did what to whom and on
whose instruction. It has been claimed that if all were revealed, Number 1
himself would be in grave danger of facing yet more criminal charges. The heart
of the matter seems to be that it is indeed possible for SARS employees to carelessly
misplace files and to add things up wrong in order to please the boss and his
friends. Shocking! (more irony).
Aussies at Kingsmead for a T20
tonight, and Argentinians at Kings Park tomorrow. Cosmopolitan stuff. And may
the cyclists in the Argus (I know – old name) enjoy fair winds.
James
Greener
Friday 4th
March 2016
PS The cruise has been canned.
