Halloween marked the end of a four month
period during which the JSE All Share index has gained around 20%. This is
heroic stuff but in theory, unlikely to continue, as it has hoisted all the
usual valuation measures into equally heady territory. It is definitely no
longer glass half full or half empty stuff but glass brimming over and “last
orders” taken.
Most analysts are confident with the view
that these bull markets are largely due to the US Federal Reserve pumping
USD85billion a month into the US
system via its infamous Quantitative Easing program. The explanation warns that
when that program comes to an end, or even just slows down – the infamous taper
– then the bear will strike. However, there is satisfaction that the track
record of Janet Chellan, the new Governess-elect, suggests that she is only too
pleased to tell markets what prices are appropriate. Some of this might be true
but since securities prices are set by mutual agreement of buyers and sellers
it seems unlikely that slowing down or shutting off the money pump could be the
sole reason for prices to fall.
Once again our socialist government has
arrogantly and patronisingly decided that we all need to be further
controlled. Without offering any
evidence that a ban on liquor advertising could have an impact on reducing
alcohol abuse state officials now express surprise and disappointment at the
vehement defence and reaction from those whose industry they are about to
destroy.
The nation’s accelerating slide towards
increasingly violent behaviour and utter contempt for the law is terrifying. What
we need is immediate and pitiless enforcement of existing legislation,
regardless of the alleged status and apparent influence of the perpetrators. No
suspension on full pay for state employees. That ought to create pressure for
speedy resolutions. No prison parole, especially for undiagnosed terminal
illnesses. No lengthy and expensive appeals resting on spurious and dubious
claims.
The never ending saga about how to fund
the (exorbitantly) expensive but fine roads around Joburg drags on and has now
become an electioneering topic. It is unlikely that many of Julius Malema’s
supporters yet own cars (if they did, they would be at work paying them off not
dancing in the streets) and their opposition to an impost they are not in
danger of being asked to pay is puzzling. Aside from the problem of ring fencing the
proceeds at National Treasury, no one has yet produced a credible piece of
simple arithmetic that shows why a modest increase in the fuel levy is
insufficient. In the meantime the fellows in Austria
who supplied the fancy equipment to read number plates and calculate tolls must
be wishing they’d never heard of Gauteng!
To what extent the woes of the textile
and clothing industry over the past decade have been caused by management
ineptitude, labour intransigence and government incompetence will provide wonderful
material for dozens of studies by future students of industrial relations.
However, the sad fact is that the Made in South Africa label is an endangered
species and many businesses in this sector have moved elsewhere or are for
sale. Seardel, the listed company, has managed to sell its clothing
manufacturing business for R105m only by first lending the buyer R77m. The
interesting part of this deal is that the buyer is the union that represents
most of the workers in that business. This is an amazing and unusual departure
for a body which is normally so critical of how the industry is run. Everyone
will wish them well with this venture and hope that not only do they save the
2000 jobs at risk but also manage to restore growth to this ailing sector.
It just as well the Currie Cup final was
not held at Kings
Park last weekend. Not
only was it incredibly wet but Province supporters would not have been allowed
to leave before the end as they did at Newlands. They would have been expected
to behave politely and congratulate the Sharks when they lifted the trophy.
James Greener
All Hallows 2013
