Friday 21 October 2011

IS THE BULL FEELING DRAINED?



The October recovery has run into trouble with the JSE All Share developing a huge attraction for the 31 000 level these last few days and becoming unwilling to venture elsewhere. In the meantime the rand has sagged badly against all other currencies. There was a bit of cheer in the retail sales growth figures which might be a statistical glitch but equally could be real as all that mislaid government cash seeps into the system via personal pockets.
Plenty of politicians and others who should have known better have, over the years, travelled to Tripoli to shake the Colonel’s hand, give him a hug and enquire about the health of his oil fields and treasury. They must now all be pretty alarmed at what has befallen their friend whose last move was into a storm drain in an unsuccessful attempt to avoid his constituents.  
One of the downsides about being the boss of a country is that you meet some rather unsavoury characters in the course of your job. The sleaziest are often themselves leaders of nations. Our own president seemingly has not yet met a despot he doesn’t like and he is currently entertaining the rather unappealing president of Equatorial Guinea. The two of them were probably sitting side by side on the newly upholstered presidential couch last night watching with growing panic the TV images of angry citizens all over the world venting their fury at the lifestyles and habits of the rich, famous and corrupt. The staff would have been instructed to double-check that the electric fence was properly switched on.
Also going down the drain is any idea of what is happening in the Euro zone. Ratings agencies are dishing out red and yellow cards in all directions. Some talking heads are predicting that Portugal is going to be right behind Greece in telling its creditors a sob story. Share markets disliked the news that France and Germany were bickering about how to launch the lifeboat and it has now been estimated that it should be equipped with about a trillion euros of bailing-out money if everyone is to be saved. No mention, however, of where that money is going to come from, but taxpayers can surely expect a call.
There is still no good economic news coming out of USA but attention there is shifting to the Republican nomination debates. That contest is becoming personal and entertaining but appears to be successful in temporarily diverting people from the fact that they, their cities and their states are rapidly going bust. Back home a similar political beauty pageant is taking shape within the ruling party. One possible candidate expects this campaign to be characterised by “divisions and fast-forming cliques and cabals, pigeon-holing of unsuspecting individuals, innuendo, gossip, back-stabbing, character assassination and even physical assassination”. That pigeon-holing sounds particularly savage.
The atmosphere in the Massmart boardroom is probably verging on the violent too as they wait for the next shot across their bows from the government. Scores of politicians, bureaucrats and labour leaders none of whom have ever run a corner cafĂ©, let alone a giant retailer, are desperate to impose unique conditions on the firm all because it is now part- owned by Wal-Mart, one of the biggest retailers on the planet. Wouldn’t it be fun to trawl through the Makro customer data base to see which of these interfering idiots buy Johnny Walker Black and plasma TVs at the stores they are threatening?
Reportedly the national grief that would follow an All Black defeat at the World Cup final on Sunday would be sufficiently large that it would sink that island forever. Now we can’t have that as we need to have a worthwhile team to beat from time to time so I wish them well and a memorable victory. A win for the Lions in their semi against Province is more of a problem though.
James Greener
21st October 2011