One could get used to these four-day weeks. All we need to do now is to get the same amount of business to flow during the days that we do stumble into the office. And to ensure that the rest of the world refrains from making market-moving announcements when we are supping long cool ones next to the braai. Many of our public holidays seem to stimulate the waffle gene that lurks near the surface in most politicians. So it is wise therefore on these days to stay away from the TV. Should you make the mistake of switching on just to see if the US economy has cratered or the Chinese have decided to stop buying stuff, you are in danger of flapping jaws, wagging fingers and mangled grammar. However, the complimentary t-shirted rent-a-crowd in the audience provide some relief, because they will be dancing and singing.
So when we switched on the dealing screens this morning, the stories were waiting to slap us in the face. Governor Bernanke was hinting that he might do something to US interest rates – or perhaps he might not. And a panic had erupted over the idea that the Chinese have reached for the handbrake. Freedom Day had liberated the bears and the market obliged by shaving nearly 2% off the main indices. Most of the damage has been inflicted by the mining houses and platinums.
It is of course month-end and despite the current carnage we could still see the All Share index delivering a very acceptable 4% or so for April which would put the year to date (now one-third gone!) performance not very far short of 20%. Anyone complaining about that, probably also thinks that there will be two SA sides in the Super 14 semis.
Like many other businesses, this one is obliged to take the Post Office in as a partner in order to fulfil our service to our clients. Service and clients are two words that are rapidly disappearing from that organisation’s dictionary. Speed vanished long ago. So I am dubious about the crowd-pulling power of Minister Matsepe-Casaburri’s invited address to a conference in Switzerland where she will talk on “The Future of National Posts” I think the chocolates and gluhwein in the refectory will be a much better bet for the delegates. They should refrain from send post-cards home, however.
The ABSA preference share private-placing behaved as we suspected and failed to deliver any stagging profit for its many applicants, who appear now to be keen sellers in considerable quantities. This supply means that on the secondary market the share now offers the highest dividend yield of any of the big bank issues and is only slightly better rated than some of the second tier operators. In my view, it has two drawbacks. Firstly, it comes in R1000 nominal units (which makes for an unwieldy six-digit share price in cents). And secondly, it has a dividend calendar very similar to the others and so missed the opportunity to fill the demand for cash flow at other times.
In the wake of a number of appalling events that grievously and fatally harmed friends and neighbours in the last few days, our president’s threat that criminals “must know that they will not succeed to terrorise and intimidate the government and the nation by resorting to crime” rings hollow and offers me no comfort. We are in serious trouble.
So once again, I shall ask you please to keep safe this Worker’s Day weekend.
James Greener
28th April 2006
