Friday 16 October 2009

THE DOLLAR IS LOSING WEIGHT

There was a rather ironic symmetry in the headlines about the government finances this week. On the spending side it emerged that the army had neglected to include the extra R30bn to cover the motor plan for the eight rather smart military transporter aircraft that they have on order at a mere R17bn. On the income side the National Treasury seem a bit put out that capital punishment is no longer available to punish anyone who fails to devote every waking hour to seeking ways to pay more tax more frequently. Now widespread tax compliance is a fine idea, and I think the government ought to publish the tax return of every person in a state postion where the official salary attracts the top marginal tax rate. But the additional revenue that they are probably going to ferret out with the latest campaign will likely be less than the money saved if they were to let me rewrite this notorious handbook about ministerial expense allowances.
Bureaucrats around the world seem unwilling to accept that there is a serious slowdown taking place and that in the real world people are losing their jobs, paying off debts and cutting back on spending. Tax revenues are therefore falling. Outgoing Governor Mboweni’s claim that this is a minor recession is manifestly wrong.
But I am also puzzled why we need so many planes. Popular wisdom has it that the SA army does not have many tanks to transport anyway and the number of fit young soldiers acceptable to the peace-needing nations is not very large. And in any case in these days of a unionised military, the troops surely demand no less than business class on a scheduled airliner when travelling. This would cost a whole lot less than R47bn and should release large sums to provide some of the services that are so obviously missing where the distressing and violent demonstrations are presently taking place.
Although I was little sad when they did away with the Transvaal, I suppose I ought to be grateful that my leaders have thought it important now to ban the transfats. These, presumably rather greasy things are allegedly very bad for us and the state has decided that in lieu of controlling the many other very dangerous things we citizens face everyday they are going to sock it to the transfats.  There are probably only a handful of white-coated food techhies who could tell a transfat from a cisfat (?) but nevertheless life on the southern tip is about to become a whole lot safer and slimmer for us all. In the spirit of scientific enquiry I wonder if the average mass of the elected parliamentarians could be measured and logged over the next ten years or so in order to confirm the benefits of this scientific breakthrough.
It was reported that Australian sports fans find that rugby is hard to follow and prefer to watch a sport where frequently 90 minutes will pass without the net in either goal serving any function whatsoever. I agree, nil-all draws are undoubtedly a whole lot simpler to grasp. This nonsense with three different scoring values and the need to count as high as 4 tries or even worse, calculate score differences is way too hard. Talking of sums though, if just half the expected number of local fans who will attend the Sharks versus Cheetahs semi-final tomorrow each drink three beers, the cost will be way less than the state-supported Industrial Development Corporation blew on a farewell party for three departing directors. As I need always to remind myself, public service is all about the catering.
I watched the funny money channel as the Dow broke through 10 000 and their excitement was huge. No one, however, mentioned that gold has outperformed shares over the last six years. It is the falling dollar that is the problem. In fact it is everyone’s problem.
James Greener
16th October 2009.