Friday 9 May 2008

SHOULD THE BULL CARRY A WEALTH WARNING?

The All Share index sliced through the 32 000 barrier without a backward glance. As usual just about any news was taken as a spur for the bull and in fact, some of it, probably actually was mildly bullish. The rand has been showing spells of strength and commodity prices are confident that Chinese demand will never slacken.
On the other hand, how can one possibly be impressed when the biggest bank in the biggest economy in the world announces that about 10% of its assets are not as wonderful as the previous management had promised? Therefore, they would be pleased to hear bids starting at $500 bn for the lot? South Africans thinking about this deal should note that this sum represents well over half of the total value of all the shares on the JSE.
Great store was set by the view from sage Warren Buffett that the worst was over in the US. If anyone gets to hear the inside story first, it has to be that man. The sight of a crowded dealing room with blinking screens and screaming traders is familiar to anyone who has by accident flipped all the way up past the sports channels. Those banks and ranks of flat-screen monitors deliver a soulless and ceaseless flow of information, opinion and conjecture pretty well simultaneously to anyone anywhere on the planet. This is very pleasing for the regulators who blather on about level playing fields. What makes them incandescent with rage, however, is the suspicion that the important news first travels on the phone lines and even worse, on the mobile phone links where call recording is very difficult. Anyone who walks briskly away from their desk with a cell phone pressed to their head is obviously in contact with a trusted source, a saucy tryst, or a steaming spouse. If markets really were transparent and fair and efficient they would not be fun nor deliver profits and would not have much reason to exist.
The headlines that Health Minister Tshabala had become “tough on booze” sadly lead not to a heart-warming tale of self-discipline but to an example of political hypocrisy. Despite the utter failure of printed health warnings on cigarette packs to reduce consumption, it has triumphantly been decided to tell the liquor industry to follow suit and place warnings on their labels. This announcement was accompanied by dark threats about what would happen if the youth failed to heed this stern government action. What’s to fear? Allegedly, even lovable drunks can attain ministerial heights.
I wish that the folk at the SABC would realise that no one cares who sits in which chair and holds what title within that rather nasty organisation. The vicious battle that apparently has broken out amongst the so-called managers and executives of the national broadcaster is of no interest whatsoever to anyone else. In fact, the fewer non-creative people on the payroll of that business the better. All we viewers and listeners want is entertaining and truthful content delivered for a competitive price to our TVs and radios. Would they also please note that not even the shortest clip or sound-bite of any politician what so ever delivering an opinion or lecture qualifies as entertaining or truthful.
My tendency for self harm has no limits. I shall be going to Ellis Park tomorrow to see the Lions, if not in action then at least on the field in person. If you are bored enough to tune in you will easily spot me. I will be half the crowd on the first level of the eastern stand.
James Greener
9th May 2008