Friday 18 April 2008

MORE TOXIC LIQUIDITY


This morning’s story was that the water coming out of the taps in large parts of the city was unfit to drink. Personally I am unaffected by this dreadful news, having long ago adopted a rehydration method that avoids the stuff. However, for those who do drink this colourless and tasteless compound of two chemicals, Spokesman Baldwin Matsimela of Johannesburg Water advised that boiling before consumption was a good idea. He did not explain how this was to be done if you were enjoying one of the now regular power cuts.
But no matter what the news, the share market takes it all in its stride and treks northwards faster than the Boers escaping British taxes. The All Share index took a good look at the empty space beckoning above the 32 000 level before pulling back to gather its strength. As usual, most of the work has been done by the resources shares with financials and industrials rather idling along. We are, however, starting to see some trading statements and company reports where earnings growth rates are down from previous levels. In most cases, the company has a very reasonable explanation for why things are getting a tad slower but so far, no one big has delivered a shocker that might catch the rest of the market’s attention. Of course, even that might not cause too much damage if we take the Wall Street example of share prices rising in apparent reward for management revealing just how bad it has been. Shareholders seem to be quite cheered with the promise that the sacking of several thousand staff members and the writing off a few billion dollars and the raising of executive bonuses will positively and absolutely fix the problems going forward.
Our own version of that is the squabble about what the word “Crisis” means. As I recall in 1994, certain sticklers for detail were still trying to tally all the votes in our own election even as Mr Mandela was accepting the title of President on the steps of the Union Buildings. The situation in Zimbabwe is sadly very different and the arrival of a consignment of Chinese armaments in Durban en route for our northern neighbour is alarming as well as poor timing. Nevertheless, it does not seem to be deterring foreign money flowing down here. The rand was quickly pushed back well below the 8 per US dollar level when it tried to break out this week as well.
I guess it would have got even firmer if it had been announced that Cuba had repaid the R1bn loan that South Africa had made to it in 1996. Instead, the National Treasury admitted that there was no chance of the miraculous socialist economic model that is Cuba being able to cough up our money and that we taxpayers must write it off. I wonder if this news will decrease the amazing popularity Che Guevara T-shirts? It will certainly have dismayed the folk at local defence manufacturer Denel who, presumably having failed to land the Zimbabwe order, are passing the hat around for a similar sum of money. 
Thanks as always to the Gauteng Provincial Government for yet another baffling request. This time for someone who can upgrade their Waste Information System (WIS). Do they actually keep a record of where the rubbish bins are?
I just love the way markets price things. I am yet to be convinced that this Indian Premier League cricket jamboree will be exciting. However, the list of the player pricings is already fascinating. Shaun Pollock and Herschelle Gibbs are both more expensive that Graham Smith who is worth only about half as much as Jacques Kallis. The other irony is that Graham is playing for a side captained by Shane Warne.
James Greener
18th April 2008