The financial pages have stirred themselves into a froth about today being the 20th anniversary of “Black Monday”. One of the many delights of this place where I sit at a desk (work would be rather too presumptuous a term) is that many of my colleagues were still at school when it happened. Even I had not been long in the markets when it struck and I thought that these sort of things were normal. Actually, that “crash” took less than a year to recover its losses and looking back, one can see that there have been at least three years since then with an All Share performance that was worse than 1987. In 1998, we suffered a 10% decline. Understand that it would take a fall of about 25% from current levels to make 2007 into a negative return year. That’s not impossible but unlikely. Perhaps us bears will be satisfied only in 2008?
A probably insignificant yet poignant milestone occurred in the market when BHP Billiton moved ahead of Anglo American in market cap. This is the first occasion in my time of being in the JSE that the top spot is not occupied by a share from the Anglo stable. And then there’s the fact that single-stock futures dominate turnover on the exchange. Is this the sign that it is time for us fogies to move on? Not a bit of it. I have plenty of opinions and forecasts left in me yet! And still half of them will be correct.
The Gauteng provincial government never fails to disappoint and enrage me with novel ways in which it will spend my money. Today they request proposals for “A Body Shop for Human Resources Services”. What on earth is this? A gym, sauna and massage facility for staff stressed out with writing rules on how people should employ other people? Or perhaps a panel-beating business to cope with abused official vehicles? The appeal today from one Mr Gert Joubert to achieve a huge reduction in government by simply abolishing VAT and firing state employees until costs equal income, gets my complete support. His suggestion comes at the end of a week when the state has announced its intention to get even more involved in all sorts of ventures including mining exotic minerals. Just get the water and the electricity to flow reliably first please. Oh yes, and stop those people who rob the rest of us of our lives, possessions and freedom.
I am intrigued and disgusted by the obstinacy and stupidity of the people who apparently have the authority to decide how and when we South Africans can connect to the rest of the wired world. Reportedly, an official conference complete with receptions, lunches and gala dinners was held this week to decide upon a suitable name for the proposed fibre optic cable that might reach SA sometime in the future.
The difficulties of obtaining a Shengen visa to get to Paris this weekend notwithstanding; it seems that a veritable stream of politicians eager to bask in reflected glory of the ‘bokke has been traipsing past the Eiffel Tower these past few days. A photo op with Brian Habana, must today rank as one of the better pictures to pop into the manifesto leaflet. Which reminds me of the declaration a few years ago by at least one current cabinet minister of his support for the All Blacks. How’s it feel these days sir?
I was once fortunate enough to watch the St Patrick’s Day parade down Fifth Avenue in New York. However, Johannesburg today is sporting more green than I ever saw during that event. The atmosphere is wonderful and we confidently expect the boys to hoist the trophy tomorrow. To all of you who might accuse me of lukewarm support might I remind you that my blood is truly greener than any of yours.
Go ‘bokke.
James Greener
19th October 2007
