There is a small but nevertheless rather savage bear roaming the markets suddenly. Whether he (or she) will grow in size and ferocity, we do not know. But even so, quite a few portfolios have been placed on the danger list and even some hedge funds overseas (and one local one) are reportedly mortally wounded and will never be seen again. I am sure, however, that the pull back is not yet sufficient or developed for any irresistible buying opportunities to have emerged. I am also confident that prudent and conservatively constructed portfolios of dividend paying shares will be able to ride out the storm without the need for any panic selling.
I note with despair that the politicians have again managed to fix something that was not really broken. The new Credit Act may have laudable and understandable motives of trying to protect naïve and ignorant folk from the clutches of the unscrupulous. However, stories are emerging that the Act has resulted in the virtual seizing up of a huge range of potential credit transactions. As usual, the main beneficiaries are the suppliers of paper, photocopying and certification services. This latter service seems to be the main duty of at least one constable (or perhaps even an inspector) at my police station. His conversation with his colleagues continues unabated as he steadily works his way through the piles of paper alternately mashing each page with a large rubber stamp and then flourishing his signature across the imprint. This process converts the photocopy into a sacred document willing accepted by compliance officers across the land, so that they can tick a box and be ready for the dreaded inspection. What I have yet to discover is the risk that this silly process is attempting to mitigate.
It would be so much better if that policeman was freed up and motivated to get out and catch the real criminals like the ones who earlier this week burst into the home of our friend and neighbour. She was bound, gagged and harassed for six hours before the assailants left in her car loaded with all the electronic goods, jewellery, cash and liquor. During her ordeal, she was told by the thugs that the ruling party’s failure to provide them with jobs and income was the reason for their criminal career. I doubt this is really true but it does reveal an interesting attitude among those who have realised that crime does pay these days. This is the second appalling criminal incident in three months that has been endured by a close friend who lives in our suburb. Our own recent brush with a burglar who smashed a large sliding glass door to get into our house took place fortunately while we were not at home. But it is enough, and we are making plans to leave this city.
Ever the analyst I was intrigued to hear that the thieves made off with our friend’s Digital Satellite TV decoder. Because of the encoding and enabling protocols required to make these things work I had always imagined that there was little incentive to steal them. However, with most soccer broadcasts soon moving to the pay channel the criminals must have found a way to overcome the blocking process and so hence the demand for decoders.
Tidemarks is early this week as I am taking a long weekend to go and see the snow. And to look for somewhere else to live.
James Greener
28th June 2007
