Early on Wednesday evening the police called me and asked if I could come to my good friend’s home around the corner and assist him. On arrival, I was shattered to learn that he had been shot during a tussle with armed intruders who had found a way into his home. He was fully conscious and his legendary sense of humour and cynicism was running at full speed. Police and paramedics were being treated to a commentary on the state of the nation and the perception of crime. It was something of a relief to see him disappear in the ambulance to the trauma unit where it was found that he had been incredibly lucky and that the bullet had missed anything vital. This very good news together with the impressive and competent professionalism of all the officials that we dealt with that night helped a little to allay the anger and fear that the incident provoked. However, I was very aware that the detectives, the policemen, and the trauma room staff also shared my own sense of frustration and despair that crimes like this will be repeated over and over again. Their efforts were mostly about providing immediate assistance and support with little prospect of being able to convict and punish the perpetrators.
The next morning, the news wires offered the story that the SA cabinet had decided to “contribute” R26 million to help Liberia with its unpaid debt to the African Development Bank. The fact that many of the people who had helped us the previous evening were unpaid volunteers and reservists, threw this latest piece of government stupidity into stark relief. Also this week I read that Interpol are delighted with the contribution being made to their operations by our very own National Police Commissioner Selebi. I wonder if their delight could possibly extend to finding a full-time job for him. With an office in Brussels or Beijing please.
Federal Reserve Governor Bernanke in Washington must also be hoping that someone in a remote location will make his predecessor, Sir Alan, an offer he could not refuse. The retired knight keeps on tottering up to microphones to announce that in his view there’s a jolly good chance that there is a recession is on the way. This sure isn’t making it any easier for the Fed to assert that the US economy is doing just fine. They will also be trying not to notice yet more bad news from the mortgage markets, the rising oil price and the rate increase announced by the European Central Bank.
Back home, the JSE, which early at the start of the week was off almost 8% from the all-time high achieved just days earlier, has been clawing its way back up. It is reported that about USD9 billion was withdrawn from emerging market funds by investors last week. This represents nearly 3% of the total assets in these funds, so I suppose the JSE survived quite well in the face of such an exit.
Reporting season on the JSE is slacking off a bit now but it revealed that late 2006 was a very profitable time for most companies. The All Share earnings base is now showing growth of 31%pa which, coupled with the price declines, has pushed the price-earnings ratio down to 15.4. In my view, this is definitely still not bargain territory and I can see very few attractive buying opportunities. Please just be patient.
There’s a slew of sport happening this weekend and many folk, particularly cyclists, will feel sore when it’s over. But not as sore as my friend who did nothing more strenuous than defend himself and his wife from the scourge of our new national sport.
Keep safe and alert and angry.
James Greener
9th March 2007
