I have heard a few mutters about the fact that I seem to be away from the office so much these days. It’s quite true. Just imagine how uncomfortable it would have been for this bear to have been here watching the all share index nudge the 23 000 level after the Governor had cranked the interest rates up by 50 bp again. Just because this was exactly the amount that everyone – except for me – was expecting, there’s no reason utterly to ignore the fact that the price of money in this country is going up. And will probably continue to go up right through Christmas and the holidays. This should make most people – especially the shopkeepers and their bankers – sad. It will certainly make the questionably named “Youth League’ mad, since more costly cash will very likely be a reason to escalate the “reckless credit blacklisting of youngsters”. The league do not approve of this practice since it “stifles their further development”. No word, however, on the stifled development of those (doubtless including some youth) who lent the blacklistees the money in the first place.
At first glance, for someone who has been out of touch for several days (the unkind will suggest several years) , the markets all look very rosy. Overseas markets have also done well, and in some cases even better than the JSE. However, it strikes me that the local shares have run with very little improvement in many of the underlying fundamentals. The rand has certainly recovered – but is still not even 5% above its recent lows. The gold price is not in wonderful shape and oil has not strayed far from the USD60 level that is still way too expensive for any prospect of decent relief from inflationary pressures. But then, that’s what being a bear is about.
As well as not being present to witness the bull in this market, the highlights of the bush trip included several prides of lion, an unbelievably large herd of buffalo, and a pair of giant kingfishers teaching their chick to fish from the tree just meters in front of the lodge. He was a reluctant pupil, having for all his life so far, managed to get improbably huge and well-stunned fish delivered to his enormous bill simply by croaking and quivering a bit. One could see his point.
Talking of feeding, I see that the Reserve Bank in Pretoria North is calling for tenders to build a 720 square metre canteen for R6m. Why a call for tenders should mention a price is unclear, but it does seem to be both a large canteen and another large bill. I guess money is not a problem at the SARB. But their notice is a lot clearer than the one from Gauteng Provincial government who would like someone to “supply, deliver and install labour saving devices for three years”. No further details are offered, and so our many questions will have to go unanswered.
Conversely, there can be no question that everything is in place for a Blue Bulls victory in the Currie Cup final. Less certain is what the Proteas will find when they get to India for the ICC Champions trophy. Are we likely to see some of our lads get their collars felt by the local constabulary? Certainly, there is an umpire from Australia who would be wise not to show up.
Have a fine weekend.
James Greener
13th October 2006
