At last the rain began to fall in Gauteng this week. It is so long since we had wet weather that I have been worrying that my smart new wireless rain gauge might no longer be functioning. I had visions of cobwebs and bird droppings gumming everything up. However, as I watched a particularly hard downpour, the electronic read-out ticked over just fine and reported that it was coming down at a rate of 12mm per hour! So far we have enjoyed more than half an inch of rain. I still measure and think of rain and fish in old money. Who could be pleased with a 1.2 kg trout?
The anemometer picked up a quite strong wind squall that came with the rain. The dial showed 18km/hour gust speed. Yes, I do live in a sheltered spot! The weather station has been faithfully recording all these numbers so I can draw graphs and compare them to history.
It’s not very different from my day job. Collecting the numbers, plotting the graphs and then trying to think what it means. For example the All Share index has been dropping all week and will end today just about where it was a fortnight ago. Is this the turnaround?
The Governor’s shorter than usual TV appearance in which he announced no change to interest rates, caused a barely discernable blip in this trend. The broadcast was notable for the innovation of fifteen minutes of “vox pop”. Hapless pundits, fully aware that the decision had been made even before they spoke, were grilled on their expectations; while interviews with the “man in the street” were also doomed to irrelevance. A cheerful music video would have been much more fun.
Another chart that has caught my attention is the one that shows that the American stock market (as represented by the S & P index) is currently a tad lower than it was 34 months ago (January 2002) while the good old JSE – expressed in US dollars - has doubled in that time. Obviously about three quarters of this performance was provided by our all-powerful currency. Only one quarter of the return came from the market itself. Sadly for our public relations with foreign investors, some other figures show that not too many of them actually managed to benefit from this run. However, the gap between the two indices is what concerns me and I believe that it will get wider still as the US market accelerates its already noticeable bearish trend. But you are understandably bored with this theme.
For some good US news for a change, have you noticed that SAB has been the best performing share of the week and in second place for the month? It seems that some firm South African management is getting the US operations into shape.
And there will be heaps of firm South African management happening at Loftus and Newlands tomorrow. I shall be watching my barometer for the high pressure zone over Joburg when the Lions thump the Blou Bulle.
James Greener
15th October 2004
