A good friend explained to me that his strategy for life was now one of going for the enjoyable option. In the light of the realisation that I am older than that iconic electric guitar, the Fender Stratocaster, that has just turned 50, this seems sensible advice.
So I have spent an enjoyable week completing the month end tasks that included compiling a share valuation list that you will have received in the post together with your statements and portfolio print outs. On a “dearness” scale of 1 (cheap) to 10 (expensive) the average rating turned out to be slightly more than 5, which tied in with my view that the market as a whole is pretty well priced. The index return calculations that I also produce at month end, provided another numeric confirmation of how flat and uninteresting the market has been for investors. The all share index is slightly down for the year with the gains on the swings of the financials and industrials slightly outweighed by the dizziness experienced on the roundabout of resources. The fact is that cash was the best performing – not that one wants to dignify a mere 4.1% with the description of performance – asset class in the last six months.
Very few of us began 2004 with anything other than a deep scepticism about the likelihood of an ever strengthening rand and consequently the mining shares in our lovely so-called balanced portfolio have delivered us a kicking. The gold index is off 35% since January and platinums are down about half that amount. Is it too late to run for cover? Probably.
This reminds me of the newspaper headline that revealed that there was “A race to get the Athens computers running”. I am sure this is true. Perhaps they should be entered for the discus instead? And no matter what the result of the Greece versus Portugal football final this weekend, the subsequent celebrations will doubtless put further strains on the Olympic readiness timetable. Every year this first weekend in July is a pretty tough one for us sporting critics ensconced on the couch armed with beverage and remote control. By Monday not just the cyclists on the Tour de France will have saddle sores.
Also on Monday we will get the results of the Standard Bank preference share allocation.
I wonder if I would enjoy guitar lessons?
James Greener
2 July 2004
