PUBLIC HOLIDAY. PRIVATE SENTIMENTS.

While cartoonists are delighted with the physical similarity between Trump and Boris, the markets aren’t laughing, and a deal of nervousness is causing very jittery price records. Without much evidence the enemies of both men are predicting Armageddon soon. For example, a Britain leaving the EU is forecast to necessitate a nation-wide cull of cattle and other lunatic stories.

Because it is all we have known, been taught and used, most of us place our trust in the printed numbers published by formal entities. A fascinating counterview is beginning to emerge from people who leave their desks and venture into thronging marketplaces where one can kick, feel and smell the merchandise. And paper records are restricted to banknotes that pass hand to hand in a flash of an eye. National Treasury bulletins, Stats SA Notes, SARB Quarterly Reports, company financials and the like, will never capture much of this data. The borders and ports are porous and probably most of the cargo manifests bear very little resemblance to what is inside those containers. SARS, the tax collection agency, reports smugly from time to time that they have destroyed a consignment of fake goods. Today’s story is that the cops charged with doing so simply popped round the back and sold it back to the merchant! The people who live and trade and thrive in this subsistence world are ignorant of issues like GDP and the balance of payments and have NO interest in tax collections. South Africa will soon be like many other third world nations where the sole reliable metric will be the street exchange rate of the rand with the US dollar.

While this view is probably just too far over the top for most readers, let’s comfort ourselves with the one area where the nation is crying out for immediate application of a state-of-the-art record-keeping technology. GPS tied in with drone-based photogrammetry could quickly complete a detailed land registry capable of answering all the thorny questions of land ownership. Or at least identifying the areas of dispute. Here in Zululand an online, printable, accurate, detailed map of the territory showing features as small as gravestones, kraals and paths would be a fantastic resource for helping to focus the discussions of who lives where. The problem is that King Goodwill Zwelethini’s middle name disappears when this topic comes up.

For once this is not a uniquely South African problem. The local angle comes in when not just one but two cabinet ministers think that they will fix it by having a meeting, with SABC, the national TV broadcaster. The issue is that some people are unable to watch the national sports teams on television. It is meaningful that the sports body concerned (soccer) failed to send anyone to the meeting and neither did the broadcasting control body (ICASA) who said it was too busy! Obviously not everyone is sure if there is a real problem here at all. Money is of course at the heart of the matter. At one end of the cash flow is a relatively small number of players who are so good at their game that they can command unbelievably large fees in the international arena. At the other end are those who can’t afford pay-to-view TV, but also probably don’t pay a TV licence fee for even the free-to-air offerings, or perhaps even for electricity. The flow is woven into a hugely complicated web with funders, sponsors, supporters, fans, government at all levels including a tiny bit of Lotto money providing the cash that feeds mainly the players and coaches but importantly also a ridiculously greedy and spendthrift administration corps and sports ministry. A recently published book[1] insists that it is this last group who are specially to blame for the high costs that have to be met by our relatively small TV sports viewership. The thieves are politically strong, connected and deeply corrupt and have few concerns about making sport more accessible to the less wealthy.

As for the players, those who can, are voting with their feet in droves and continuity of team selection is a dirty word. Cry the Empty Dressing Room.

James Greener

Women’s Day 2019

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[1]Graeme Joffe; SPORT: GREED & BETRAYAL: Wanted for crimes against Journalism. 2019

GUY FAWKES LIVES

Investment analysts are forever searching through the numbers for signals of what is coming down the tracks. The puzzlement for outsiders is that the same data will trigger quite different guesses from the alleged experts. For example, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate this week and the commentators split into two noisy camps. One praising what they saw as a long overdue move that will keep the economy steaming along and the other warning that cheap money has caused a debt “addiction” that will cause great hardship in the future. Those steeped in the knowledge and wisdom of Central Banking Theory undoubtedly have reasons why a committee is the optimal method to decide the price of money but the fact is that economies seem to speed up and slow down at their own pace  in response to the net effect of millions of people doing trillions of transactions paying little heed to the deliberations of any committee.

Which is what is happening to that much derided and scorned “barbarous relic”, gold. Its price is rising. This is of course the consequence of an increase in the amount cash into something a bit more tangible. Why this is happening is unknown, but one reason may be the rather strange reaction that has been caused by Boris Johnson moving into 10 Downing Street as the British Prime Minister. Apparently, his commitment to taking that nation out of the European Union – a move requested by a majority of citizens a while back – is alarming, and all manner of panic buying is happening. Allegedly shedding the cloak of Brussels bureaucracy will cause shortages of essential goods on that soggy island. Including gold by the look of things!

As usual Eskom waited until the tax-payer’s bail-out cheque cleared, before back-dating the wind-fall and then triumphantly releasing its (utterly dreadful) results. Accountants please explain. Simultaneously it was announced that Mr Jabu Mabuza would assume the dual role of chairman and acting CEO of the embattled utility. This sprightly fellow with scant formal education but a penchant for natty hats now has two more figurative ones.  He is apparently unconcerned with the long list of predecessors who have passed through the revolving door often citing the pressure of the job for their departure. Good luck sir and please keep the lights on.

Ah ha! We Durban people are going to get an infrastructure revolution. And its jewel will be a highspeed train from the airport to somewhere else. Apparently, it’s early days still and the MEC for the KZN department of Economic Development, Tourism and Environmental Affairs, the Honourable Nomusa Dube-Ncube, warned that it’s all very much in the planning stage but they have R2.3bn in their kitty. Which doesn’t sound like very much. To begin with, the full colour, full page brag sheet wasn’t cheap.  Included in their plans is an Aerotropolis Institute at the local university. Helpfully she explained that an aerotropolis is a metropolitan subregion with its infrastructure, land use and economy centred around an airport. It’s very exciting.

Only the legally informed really understand the role that the Public Protector, Busisiwe Mkhwebane is supposed to play in the national team but based on the title an independent and apolitical hunter of crooked civil servants seems about right. However, she herself is now in urgent need of protection. Almost everyone she has singled out for investigation has assembled a pack of lawyers and sent them off to complain that their dignity and reputations are under threat by her actions. The courts are busy. Dignity and reputations are hard to find and keep!

Apparently, it’s against the law (quite right too) to let off fireworks inside a building. Allegedly this happened inside the Pietermaritzburg city hall in a highly successful move to alarm and upset the councillors who that very moment were discussing the collapse of their municipality. The police have yet to make an arrest. You can’t make this stuff up.

After all the mid-week day-time sport that we retirees have been able to watch recently, the current drought is causing us to think about home repairs and maintenance. Oh wait, there’s an Ashes Test Series on, featuring the infamous Australian sandpaper squad. Excellent.

James Greener

Friday August 2^nd, 2019

COME ON THE ‘BOKKE

Riots are the weapon of angry, frustrated and ignored young men and women. Here in South Africa their puzzling and illogical targets for wanton destruction are schools and other places of learning.  The obvious sufferers are usually the younger men and women of the rioter’s district. Authorities are now hoping that the parents and elders of these pupils will volunteer to protect these establishments but with a twist. The volunteers will be paid. But not as much as proper guards would be. This plan may not work out. Sjamboks might.

Whatever your view of the present USA leadership, the just passed 50^th anniversary of the moon landing is a reminder of the undeniable fact that America was indeed Great. Today? Well maybe not as much. Amongst the celebrations to mark the event was a life-sized sculpture of the three astronauts set in a diorama of a lunar landscape complete with a replica of the first moon footprint. The whole is constructed out of a ton of butter which the organisers are keen to reassure visitors to the Ohio State Fair, is past its sell by date and will be recycled. Neil Armstrong was born in nearby Wapakoneta.

The revelation that yet again taxpayers are going to top up Eskom with even more billions is worrying Moody’s – one of the globe’s more influential ratings agencies. They point out that despite the deluge of cash pumped into this utterly incompetent and insolvent public utility, no turnaround plan for a permanent solution has been tabled. Therefore, the cash handouts will simply continue to the obvious detriment of the debt to GDP ratios and other mystical metrics which supposedly provide indicators of financial health. The truth is that the state and probably all its agencies spend far more than their incomes. These outfits are dead broke. Moody’s will undoubtedly have to soon down-grade the nation’s credit rating, which will result in everyone having to pay (a lot) more interest when borrowing money from overseas.  

Even the most loyal fan of President Cyril must by now be puzzled by his apparent lack of understanding of the seriousness of the situation. It is indeed a wonderment that, when in the private business sphere, his skills and acumen earned him billions. Why does he aspire to a draughty office in the dilapidated Union Buildings where his main occupation seems to be briefing lawyers? Currently he is having a full go at the Public Protector who has come to the conclusion that we need protection from him. This is only one of her strange decisions, but she may also be taking orders from elsewhere.

One wonders just what the Zulu King Zwelethini had to say during his meeting with the Prince of Wales in Wales this week to commemorate the 140^th anniversary of the battle of Isandlwana. Given his perennial shortage of money – partially perhaps to do with having so many wives -- was he there to probe the question of a winner’s bonus? Certainly, the photograph of the event seems to show the representative of the losers in that battle looking as if he has mislaid his wallet while the victor’s representative is wearing a look of happy anticipation.

Winner’s bonuses are a touchy subject over in New Zealand at the moment where the female prime minister has got involved with the question of why the  world cup winning Silver Ferns (women’s netball) got nothing, while the second placed Black Caps (men’s cricket) were rewarded with $2m. Hmm. Perhaps it’s not the moment to ask why the women who play 3 sets at Wimbledon get the same prize money as the men who play 66% more tennis. Meantime the All Blacks (men’s rugby) await the Springboks who last week beat the Wallabies (men’s rugby team, now described by their fans as Useless). And then there’s Shane Lowry, the Irishman who won The Open (golf) on an Irish course and the Irish cricket team (who knew?) giving England a big fright at Lords just ahead of the Ashes. And can a German and Frenchman driving Italian cars finally shut out the Brit and the Finn driving German cars at Hockenheim? Will a Frenchman at last break the drought and win Le Tour?

James Greener

Friday 26^th July 2019