PRESIDENT TO OPEN A RUBBISH BIN

One day we will learn the details of the deal that was struck in the wee hours of a December night at the ANC National Conference in 2017. The following day Cyril Ramaphosa was elected president of the party, and thereafter became President of the country. This was a massive surprise to many, including ex-president Zuma, who seemed confident that his ex-wife would land the job. Nevertheless, the elevation of this supposedly highly successful and very wealthy businessman, with a penchant for breeding buffalos, was greeted with relief and joy by equally many others. Sadly, whatever restrictions and conditions formed part of that alleged deal, his behaviour as President have revealed him to be a true politician, tailoring his views to his audience. Yesterday, despite explaining to another meeting just weeks ago that it was impossible, he announced that the Reserve Bank will soon be nationalised. In the context of the extreme socialist policies espoused by his government, this is not good. Already the motor mouths are going on about the Bank “creating” jobs.

Sadly, by the time you get to read this you will be too late to attend the National Launch of the Good Green Deeds Programme which happened this morning in East London. Despite his very full diary President Cyril will be there, Very laudably the programme is “aimed at changing behaviour towards littering, illegal dumping and towards waste in general”. Without denigrating in any way this program and its aims, one does wonder why our leaders don’t first just enforce the already quite severe existing laws about where and how one can throw stuff away. Beverage cans and fast food packaging are the nation’s main indicator of population density showing that previous campaigns like the decades old “Zap it in a Zibi Can” never made an impact.  It would probably also be worth testing if putting even a tiny value on virtually any type of waste will attract the attention of the frighteningly large number of people who scavenge for a living. The fact that scrap metal and cardboard packaging is so quickly retrieved from domestic rubbish awaiting collection must be a guideline.

The legal eagles are ringing up satisfying fee-notes as the unending squabble of who was in charge at Eskom when it did the bad stuff, stumbles on. Now it seems that the Eskom folk who arranged the R25bn loan from the Chinese are calling for help too. Given that Eskom has convinced the regulator to approve a sequence of eye-watering double-digit price increases just to keep the lights on, it seems repayment of the loan on time is in jeopardy. The lender has a reputation for getting upset when this happens. This is a distinct case of homeward bound chickens looking for their roost and tax payers are on the floor level of the coop.

The most recent National Treasury publication of how things are going in the collection of revenue and the allocation of disbursements was as usual released right on schedule. It revealed a record 12-month period deficit of R226bn as tax revenue slipped, but government spending remained doggedly robust. Undoubtedly the revised targets for these two important accounting totals announced in the recent Budget are hopelessly unattainable and reality must soon dawn. On the income side the proportion of a compliant law-abiding individual’s income that is collected by the government is nearly 50% but the numbers and wealth of the few members of that species are diminishing daily. The only lever left to tug is expenditure and President Cyril needs savagely to trim his payroll, while insisting on massive improvements in productivity from the survivors. He has a big problem on his hands and needs to start ignoring what ever that midnight deal required,

Yet another feast of oval ball sport for 15s and 7s, plus round ball stuff on TV this weekend. Did you see the size of the  UEFA Champions League trophy that was brought out to SA for a spot of sun and beach time? That needs a first-class seat all its own! And of course, the Proteas have an ODI series to wrap up.

James Greener

Friday 8^th March 2019 International Women's Day

HAPPY NEW TAX YEAR

This week saw the launch of Tyme Bank., which will offer so-called branchless banking, although there will be “kiosks” in certain chain stores and the tellers at those stores will be able to handle simple transactions. There are a few interesting aspects to this development, one of which is the doubtless correct claim that this will be greatly appreciated by the rural communities who have to travel long distances to reach a bricks and mortar bank. Another is that these bankers must have satisfied themselves that there is plenty of money (specifically cash) for which the owner now wants to move from the hidey-hole under the mattress. It will be interesting to see if there is a decline in the Reserve Bank’s record of notes and coins in circulation, which might even have an impact on the crime world where suitcases of folding stuff are the preferred unit of influence.

There’s an intriguing spat taking place between two organisation that essentially do the same thing. Both the Black Business Council and Business Unity SA see themselves as the “voice of black business”. Presumably there are subscription fees and other money sources at stake here. The presidents of each organisation are accusing the other’s outfit of not being true to the race mantra that black is good and white is bad. Naturally the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Radical Economic Transformation have also been dragged into the squabble. The sad thing is that out there, there are South Africans of every kind seeking to make a living between suppliers and customers who struggling to withstand the depredations of the state and its satraps. Post-budget detailed analyses have revealed the terrifying extent of the tax burden, state interference and misappropriation of public money. True economic freedom will happen only once individuals realise that belonging to any organisation whether it be a bowling club, a trade union of workers or a confederation of supposedly influential leaders, is worthwhile only if the benefits match or exceed the costs of membership. All too often it’s the founders and office bearers who win all the prizes.

Only the good folk who attended the Alleluia Ministries gathering to witness the “resurrection” of an allegedly dead fellow from the confines of his coffin will be able to say if they got value for their contribution to the collection plate. The rest of us who watched, for free, the video of the spoof certainly enjoyed it and the political cartoonists who equated the event to attempts to return the ANC to life once again thanked their lucky stars for the material that living in South Africa provides.

The complex but vital task of allocating chunks of radio spectrum to satisfy the non-stop growth in demand is one of the tasks handled by Independent Communications Authority of South Africa. Because this is a resource freely provided by physics but worth a great deal to the users, it is a task that needs to be done extremely fairly and transparently by technocrats who understand the product, and how it is used.  But ICASA seems to have few people like that on their staff. What they did have is a newly fired chairman who has just been sentenced to 20 year for fraud, and so becomes among the few so far caught and sentenced for misuse of public money. The twist is that the crime was carried out in his previous job as acting CEO at the Land Bank. You can’t make this up.

Neither can you believe that our Vice-President is confident that the national shortage of electricity is because demand has outstripped supply, and this is evidence of satisfactory economic growth. Umm. No. The truth is that the supply is shrinking and so therefore is everything else. There really is very little growth happening sir.

The Blizbokke are missing the key men who have defected from the Sevens format to the 15-man game presumably because it pays better. Unfortunately, because the 7s tournament is in Vegas this week end it will be difficult to stay awake. It’s very hot and humid in Durban at present and the man at the end of the bar is certain it will affect the Stormers who are here to take on the Sharks who are basking at the top of the league table But Lions / Bulls at 2pm will be far easier. Discussion at Cricket Society last night focussed on the woeful state of Proteas fielding. Indeed.

James Greener

1^st March 2019 (Beer Day in Iceland)

‘ALOE, ‘ALOE. WHERE’S THE MONEY GONE THEN?

The fact that the government is very short of money is rather well known and so consumers are not much surprised that their little luxuries like food, fuel and fun will suffer from increased taxes. The numbers are on the government’s side when it comes to the possibility of a tax revolt, however. Only 14m people are registered tax payers and almost half of these have income below the tax threshold. The Budget Review reveals that 40% of the income tax is paid by just 282 619 individual taxpayers. Presumably if even half this number did all gather in Pretoria and march on the Union Buildings it would cause a newsworthy event. But the way the voting system works they would cause barely a blip on the election results. And don’t expect the 43m or so non-taxpayers to be sympathetic!

Just what did those poor aloes do to deserve being be lugged into parliament on Wednesday to listen to Minister Tito Mboweni’s maiden budget speech? The poor plants were described as resilient, a word used by the press to describe the budget itself, but exactly what this means is not explained. We will need some report on their health in months to come to see if they survived the experience. The speech was full of some very wishful thinking about heroic increases in tax collection in the future. On average, SARS currently collects just R106bn a month. However, to attain the target for Fiscal 2019, ending in just over two months’ time, Tito and his aloes need to collect a huge rate of  R175bn a month. The all-time record monthly tax take of R161m was set in December 2018. Even if the newly launched Illicit Economy Unit manages to track down every smuggled cigarette and collect the duty owing the deficit is going to overshoot.

The budgeted monthly average collection in Fiscal 2020 is pegged at R132bn and even new and increased imposts for that year, like the contentious Carbon Tax, the R65.84 duty on a bottle of whisky and an extra 64 cents duty on a cigar might not be enough. As for the success of his mooted gesture of goodwill on behalf of MPs and other senior state executives to forego a salary increase – well let’s see how that flies. Austerity is not a team sport enjoyed by public servants used to perks and prizes.  In fact, all of those who in one way or another feed at the trough of public money and who have been targeted for a spot of belt-tightening are already starting to whine and shake their heads and fists. Perhaps the most intriguing part about the government at last trimming their wages bill is that much of money saved will be used to keep the lights on by supporting Eskom. When and if that gets widely recognised small wars could break out between government staff and Eskom employees. Watch this space.

Now SAA will also be split into three parts, and like the similar idea about Eskom, this plan has triggered complaints from those who fear their little sinecure could be uncovered and they will be required to deliver for their salary.  Unfortunately, the argument about and execution of this proposed rationalisation of the national airline will probably take ages and certainly cost money. Whether or not this is the right remedy should not anyway be something for our government to decide upon. There is already ample evidence that they are hopeless at running most things – in particular, they are lethally bad when it comes to potentially profitable enterprises. Just sell the darn thing now and let the buyer decide if there’s any way to revive the albatross. And while they are about it, sell the airports too. ACSA has a suspiciously race based share holder profile dominated by the state and seems to charge a great deal for allowing a plane to land.

As things stand in PE it seems as if the Proteas and Sri Lanka once again won’t need a fifth day or even a fourth to embarrass one of the sides in the second and final test match.   It’s a shame. Durban is getting excited about getting into Kings Park tomorrow to watch the Sharks’ opening home match of the season. The talk at the bowling club bar this evening will be all about the catering arrangements tomorrow with the early kick-off suggesting tea and scones rather than boerie and Hansa.

James Greener

Friday 22^nd February 2019