The rand has
improved, share indices are up and bond yields are softening. It’s almost as if South Africans feel much
happier now that not only has President Cyril come back early from his overseas
junket to solve our power crisis, but also ex-president JZ has returned from allegedly
taking medical advice in Cuba and looks fit enough to share his State Capture Secrets
with the Zondo Commission.
Cyril surprised
many with the claim that sabotage was a factor in why Eskom has to ration our
electricity; but cancelling all leave at the state owned enterprise may not do
much for keeping the lights on. Very few people working at that utility have
any clue about the real-world, hands-dirty business of converting (wet) coal
into 230 volts. So instead of cancelling leave why not fire them along with all
the supernumeraries on the state payroll.
The one
government policy that needed to work in the last two dozen years of the so-called
democratic era has turned out brilliantly. Known as Black Economic Empowerment
(BEE) it all but legislates that wherever large money flows are happening –
particularly if the state or one of its agencies is a party in that transaction
– a layer of loyalists must be “inserted” in order to supervise that a suitable
share of the proceeds be skimmed off and then made to disappear swiftly and
without trace. The irony is that simultaneously with BEE, the government leaned
heavily on the formal regulated financial industry to beef up compliance and anti-money-laundering
activities. Not only was FICA very costly but it has failed spectacularly to
throttle the flows of stolen and corruptly obtained money flows. One day
research will demonstrate that in return for pretending to keep an eye open for
suspicious cash movements and parachuting “cadres” into high paying but
powerless positions, the banks were mostly left alone to do as they pleased.
An outcome
for BEE has been to oblige consumers and taxpayers – who in the beginning were mostly
white citizens -- to pay too much for goods and services. One measure of the
success of the policy is the exciting growth of the black middle class, which
is probably now the most significant demographic group in the nation. They
certainly are the target audience of most advertising! Especially luxury
liquors. But thy are also taxpayers and will be wondering how long it can last
if 34% of the tax they pay is used in turn to pay them!
A secondary
effect of rampant corruption and paying people more than the post that they
fill earns, is that prices are now hopelessly distorted. In a land with record
joblessness those who do have jobs are often paid far too much. And with
governments paying egregious amounts for nearly worthless goods like trains
that don’t fit tunnels and boilers that can’t burn coal none of us know anymore
how much to pay for a Chappies bubble gum.
The changeover
of the All Black’s coach from the more or less cheerless Steve Hansen to Ian
Foster seems to have gone well. The new guy also doesn’t smile. Let’s hope that
we can keep him glum for another 4 years. And if you have never watched Sevens
Rugby give it a try. No matter who is playing its entertaining. It does help
when the Blizbokke are on song though. Even Danie Craven would laugh at the
sight of green and gold dreadlocks streaking down the touchline.
This will be
the last Tidemarks for the year and indeed the decade. The highlight of the
year was the birth in August to my younger daughter in Edinburgh of my first grandchild
Penelope Nora Young. The nadir was the death just a fortnight later from liver
failure, probably a result of chemotherapy side effects, of Christine, my
beloved wife and best friend. Therefore, accompanied by my elder daughter from
Franschhoek and a pile of unfamiliar but reportedly “warm” clothing, I am going
to meet Penny and on behalf of Chris and myself welcome her into the family. Please
have a wonderful festive season yourself and try to ensure that I have a country
to come back to and prod gently
Merry
Christmas and a Happy and Safe New Year
James Greener
Friday 13th
December 2019
