While there surely
are little corners of the markets where investors are either delighted at their
skill or fed up with their advisor, the overall market indices have not yet
confirmed that the bear is finished. There are more reasons to be defensive and
conservative than to be fully invested in risk assets. An interesting aspect of
the situation is that in both America and Europe there are huge potentially
market-disruptive events taking place. America has a President with a unique
attitude and style while Europeans are confused about whether having more
government is a good or a bad thing. On both sides of the pond those who simply
ignore politics and get on with what they do best seem to be thriving.
It seems to
be dawning on President Cyril that there are far too many felons with access to
the national petty cash box. But the marvellous opportunity presented by the SONA
event in Cape Town last night to round up hundreds of them was wasted. The new
prosecuting unit is still just on his wish list and so the police were
untroubled. Unfortunately, even the fashion police who ought to have been at
work were also absent. It’s a mystery why this event on the parliamentary
calendar causes the guests to behave and dress like teenagers off to a
sleepover at a friend’s house. This year there wasn’t even the promise of a midnight
feast although the A-list had been to a lavish lunch beforehand so undoubtedly
there were sleepy heads in the chamber.
Those who are
fretting that splitting Eskom into three units will cause job losses, probably
need not worry. Although Eskom does need a drastic prune of the head count as
well as a professional and long-term approach to the supply and pricing of its
coal stocks, the fact is that neither is likely. Unless of course management of
all three divisions is entrusted predominantly to competent engineers. The very
fortuitously timed announcement by Total that an exploratory well 175km
offshore Knysna has encountered possibly substantial reserves of gas and
condensate has been immediately translated by an accountant into a very
exciting R1 trillion windfall. At that distance offshore and in as yet
unspecified water depth the only currently bankable certainty about this discovery
is the delightful name of “Brulpadda” (= bull frog)
COSATU’s
General Secretary has come up with a novel idea. He says that his organisation
is worried that the ANC might put up tainted candidates in the forthcoming
general election process. He was even as outspoken as to name two of the
current scandals (VBS bank and Bosasa) and a few people who “have been fingered
in wrongdoing” and has asked them to recuse themselves from the lists. He believes
that the ANC has enough capable and honest people in its ranks and has no need
to (recycle) “compromised tainted characters”. While some may be sceptical of
this claim, it would be wonderful if all the 287 political parties so far
registered to contest the elections cleansed its lists in this way. Having a
government comprised of capable and honest folk sounds great but are there
really enough politicians like this to make
up even a modest cabinet of say a dozen? Also worrying is the length of the ballot form
needed to offer so many parties.
Anyone still
anxious about South Africa slipping down the rankings in all the important
stuff like education, health, ease of doing business etc must be relieved that
we are still right up there when it comes to conspicuous consumption. The local
dealership for the Pagani Huayra Roadster won’t reveal its price nor the names
of the two local buyers. Speculation is that they are either politically placed
or prophets. Who else has the protection required to drive at 337 km/hr?
The national
cricket selectors seem to be spoiled for choice and the manufacturer of Proteas
caps is being kept busy. Our lads’ T20 wins against Pakistan were not
convincing, but it really is a dreadful format of the game. Having family living
overseas injects a bit more interest in the Six Nations rugby for me especially
when the Springbok Sevens are battling, and a local official thought Super
Rugby and Super Heroes had a nice ring about it.
James Greener
Friday 8th February 2019
