Even for a physicist this relativity
stuff is not easy. When priced in US dollars our currency has lost about 10% of
its value in the last 12 months. But in euros it is almost 15% stronger over
the same period. Our runt is also up versus the Yen and pretty much unchanged
against the Pound since this time last year. This boils down to the conclusion
that that there has been steady demand for the US dollar despite all the nasty
things that are said about that country. In theory most of us shouldn’t be needing
as many dollars as in the past, since oil, which is largely priced in
greenbacks, has fallen so much in price in the past year. Indeed the dollar
prices of a great many commodities have been falling. And yet folk want
dollars.
Despite the deluge of rather good company
results, the JSE has lost the momentum it enjoyed since the start of the year
and is shying away from a convincing breach of the 53 000 level.
One would have thought that in the
wonderful new world of immediate and universal internet communication there was
very little that was really secret. The emergence of a tribe of brave whistle
blowers has shone a bright and welcome light on all sorts of things that our
leaders felt we really didn’t need to know. And yet it seems we have spies
doing things. One of our spooks is especially incensed that his cell phone
number has been revealed. Surely he doesn’t use his mobile phone for
confidential chats? Isn’t there a big red telephone on his desk that connects
him to Number 1 to warn him which wife could be adding toxins to his porridge?
South Africa is a party to a global agreement to close down in a few months time
all “terrestrial free-to-air” TV broadcasts. This has to be done to release a
slice of the broadcast spectrum for another technology and should be straight
forward. The affected TV stations will broadcast their programs on other channels
but using a digital format. They will continue to send out the signals from the
high TV masts which are dotted about the place, hence the term “terrestrial” The
very many viewers who receive their TV programs broadcast from these masts will
need to acquire a small piece of equipment in order to handle the new digital
signal. This “set-top box” is a digital-to-analogue decoder, very similar to
the one used by the viewers who subscribe to the services where their programs
are transmitted from a satellite. There are two problems that worry the
government about this change-over. The first is that many of their supporters won’t
be able to afford the set-top box and secondly, the lucrative business of manufacturing
these boxes should ideally be parcelled out to friends and relatives.. To help
solve the first problem they plan to issue at least 5 million of the set-top
boxes for free to selected voters/viewers.. Undoubtedly a secondary market in
decoders will immediately spring up and this will not do. Controlling this, requires that the boxes
have some way of being switched on and off remotely. Reaching cost-effective, appropriate
and regime-friendly solutions to these and other problems has been the cause of
prolonged and fierce squabbling. Despite claims to the contrary they are
probably not yet all resolved.
The massive and bulky tomes comprising
Minister Nene’s budget have not yet gathered their first layer of dust when one
of the constituencies he asked to play along has demanded far more money than
he offered. As predicted this “austerity” stuff is unappealing. Since many of
the services we expect from our government are already subject to lengthy and
error-ridden delays, perhaps the strikes will make little impact on our lives.
It will, however, probably mean that the new revenue generators will prove
insufficient and this time next year they will have been cranked up yet again.
Although not yet enthusiastically promoted by most banks, the new tax free
interest paying accounts deserve a close look by all investors.
Hopefully the Proteas’ confidence and
momentum will see them very near the top of their pool at the Cricket World
Cup. But then the really tense stuff begins because to win the cup they have to
win four successive matches. We have never done that at the world cup before.
Oh dear. And the Sharks really are going about getting to the Super 15 play offs
the long way round.
James Greener
6th March 2015
