It’s not exactly a roaring bear market
(yet) and the all share is off only about 2.5% but it’s a sufficiently large
move to require that the talking heads come up with reasons for it. One popular
theme is that Yemen is being
bombed by its neighbour Saudi
Arabia. Now most of us have only the barest
ideas of just where these places are and further almost none of us have any idea
why they need to be seriously nasty to each other. However, many of the world’s
markets have reacted to these developments and so to show how grown up we are,
the JSE drifted off as well. Actually it’s unnecessary to look to the Middle East for reasons to be anxious about our markets.
There’s plenty going on at home to make one nervous.
The biggest number to worry about is the
R1.61 per litre price rise coming next week to the petrol price. This is going
to hurt disposable incomes and unavoidably affect retail spending which
reportedly is already being hammered by ever stricter interpretations of
consumer credit laws. The period of respite granted by a falling crude oil
price has been cruelly terminated by a desperate National Treasury and a
sagging currency.
Shortly after telling the nation that too
many of we citizens are reliant on state handouts, the president promised that
about a billion rand would be set aside for low interest loans for businessmen
selected by race. Without dwelling on the likely unconstitutionality of that
policy, the contradiction is stunning and is a perfect example of the lack of
understanding of how economies work. Any business that survives only because of
taxpayer subsidies is not adding any value. The president also complained that
this step was necessary because commercial lenders were refusing to supply cash
to these applicants but failed to spot that this was most likely because the
banks saw a low probability that the businesses would be able to repay the
loan. Governments of course have no such qualms.
There can now be no one with the naïve
view that the migration of land based TV transmissions to a new system would be
achieved at the lowest cost and the greatest benefit to all the country’s
viewers. At a meeting of the potential manufactures of the so-called set-top
boxes, violence ensued and guns were waved. The mentioned sum of R4.3bn clearly
has lots of fat well worth fighting for.
Even if
we are never able to determine exactly who did what, to whom and when, the
indisputable fact is that where we are now is the consequence of every action
by every one in the past. Many of those acts were wise or philanthropic and
delivered benefits that are still being enjoyed today -- like having a
developed nation over 100 years old. But equally, by current standards and
context, many of those actions are alarming and deplorable, but most importantly,
irreversible. No amount of yelling, poo-throwing, paint-spaying or even quiet
discourse can change history and only immature and ignorant people would ever
attempt to do so. Attacking and defacing symbols and images of the past is also
deplorable even if there are grounds for relocating them. The “students”
calling for the elimination of all references to Cecil Rhodes will never know
the impact they are having on the contemplated generosity of future
benefactors. They might however experience a reduction in the value of their
own studies at an institution that bows to demands to deny history.
So with
both the soccer and cricket trophy cabinets bare we must all now pin our hopes
on the ‘bokke in October. With three out of four wins on the away tour the Lions
are making the selectors’ job ever easier. The Sharks meanwhile seem to be
intent on collecting a full deck of red cards. Talking of red, when will
Ferrari start winning again?
James Greener
Friday 27th March 2015
