Because of its liquidity, NewGold – the exchange traded fund that
tracks the rand price of gold bullion – it is a very useful indicator of local
conditions. While everyone was busy dancing on the grave of the gold bulls,
locally the slide was a modest 15%. This did however briefly take NewGold to
its lowest price in almost 2 years, but the recovery from there has been substantial
and the fund is already back to the levels it enjoyed in August last year. Even
more surprising is that the JSE shares, excluding the mining and resources
sectors, have all but erased this April’s bear market. Unfortunately, while
this may sound like good news it merely further delays when we can hope to see
satisfactory buying opportunities in these sectors. Whether or not it is time
to be bargain hunting in the basement where the mining shares are languishing
is the really hard question, however.
Indications are that relations between employers, government and
labour are at a very low ebb and impossible wage demands accompanied by hugely
damaging strikes are imminent and unavoidable. Despite their stated commitment
to education the government seems to have a secret admiration for striking
teachers and have done nothing to put an end to that current appalling stay
away. News emerged this week that state money was distributed to demonstrators
in the winelands last year to enable them to buy musical instruments. It is
never boring here on the southern tip, but it’s hard to find good investments.
The Black Management Forum is one of those strangely South African
racially exclusive clubs that somehow is not racist. It is seeking sponsors for
its annual dinner and has set up a kind of alms race. Half a million rand will
earn Diamond status for the donor but a Platinum level is available for R100
000 more. However, on the podium already, as Anchor Sponsors, are Mercedes-Benz
– understandably keen to assert their position as supplier of wheels to the
rich and famous – as well as Transnet and Eskom. The presence of these last two
state-owned organisations is concerning, since neither is in peak financial
health and often themselves seek sponsorship from the tax-payers. Also there is
no mention of just why so much money is required over and above the ticket
price of R2000 a plate for 1000 expected guests. Nevertheless, provided no
politicians are invited to speak it could be a very jolly evening of sluicing
and browsing.
When it comes to politicians speaking, Minister Rob Davies totally
gave the game away in his blustering defence of the asinine plan to increase
regulation on anyone bold enough to try and make a living by operating even the
most micro of businesses. He let slip that word “tax”. Socialist control freaks
are deeply affronted that anyone should make money for themselves without
sharing it with the state. This country so badly needs a Margaret Thatcher
clone.
Forecasting the outcome of the Super 15 tournament which is now
about half way through its season is just as foolish and difficult as calling
the gold price or the market. However, it does look as if the South African
sides and especially the Sharks are determined to take the long way round to
the playoffs. Ever since I acquired my black and white flag, the Natal team has barely
scored a try. It is said the coach begins each training session by jogging the
fellows to the ends of the field to remind them what the try line looks like.
James Greener
Almost Freedom Day 2013
