It was a bleak short week on the JSE with the ten biggest value
losers collectively giving up more than R100bn in market capitalisation. This
had the effect of erasing the gains that the All Share index so valiantly managed
last month. There was scarcely any good news on the winner’s lists either.
Reporting season for December month-end companies is largely over and so there
was scant local data that investors could digest. It has gone ominously quiet
overseas as well, apart from the huge din being made by a tragically unhappy
young man rattling his sabre in North
Korea. No one is taking his threats about starting
a war with nuclear weapons seriously but all the same it is quite nice to be
down here out of the way on the southern tip.
Thank goodness that there are always fresh new analysts coming on to
the scene. They are delightfully oblivious to the perils of forecasting and so
this morning there are headlines that the gold price will reach $1800 an ounce
by year end. We slightly wizened cynics know that neither the forecaster nor
anyone else has any idea what the future holds, but nevertheless it is fun to
watch the youth making these bold stabs. Quite what we should do with this
prediction is unclear since ideally we also need to know what the rand/dollar exchange rate will
be at the same time before deciding if any of the gold mine shares are worth a
buy. My own dislike of that sector stems
less from the price of their product and more from the fact that the mining
industry in general seems to be firmly in the sights of government and labour.
These bodies believe that the industry deserves to be punished for a myriad of
real and alleged transgressions. This is not to deny that mine management themselves
also don’t make some odd near self-destructing decisions from time to time.
Mining businesses seem to change bosses with nearly the same frequency as the
other sick men of the nation – the parastatals.
It’s obviously tough when you have to keep taking advice and instruction
from the Union Buildings.
Perhaps it is just me and living in Durban but of late I have found that trips to
the shops to buy specific common items are frequently unsuccessful. Hardware
stores have pitiful stocks of standard sized fasteners like nuts and bolts and
nails and screws The tools on offer are cheap and nasty and are sure to fail
after a few uses. In clothing shops popular sizes and items are always sold out
with no prospect of replenishment. The list goes on. Is this a temporary
situation resulting from a global and local slowdown? Or is it more sinister,
reflecting the loss of skills, experience and institutional memory at shops and
their suppliers? One particularly infuriating local shortage is of cheap and
plentiful bandwidth connectivity with the internet. It is embarrassing to see
SA’s low ranking in the league tables of nations on this score. And, as ever,
the responsible authorities are in yet another meeting following which they
issue more valueless promises that they are planning to do something about it.
The shortage of this particular commodity is holding back growth and
development in a big way.
Swimmers are just the latest crop of sports men and women who find
that they are unable to afford to attend important overseas meetings. Their
plea for some state money is quite understandable but sadly hard to support
while there are still unacceptable situations like children in this nation who
go to school hungry. Of course equally unacceptable is the unexplained
disappearance of government funds into corruption, boondoggles and
maladministration. The first step to helping those who make personal sacrifices
to pursue their sporting dreams would be to abolish the Department of Sport and
allow generous tax benefits for all who sponsor or support national teams.
The mood at the
bowling club tonight will be tense as the fans sink a few stiffeners before repairing
to the Shark Tank for what might be a very tough encounter with the Crusaders.
I shall unfurl my new flag and wave it vigorously.
James Greener
5th April 2013
