Market news is dominated by stories of big deals which may or may not be good for present shareholders. MTN seem especially delighted with a transaction that totally entrenches the corrupt and wasteful allocation of resources on political and racial criteria. Rather they should concentrate on selling ever cheaper and better communications and everyone will be benefit. The most interesting thing about the DiData deal is that the share price in the days before its announcement displays no hint of a leak. Company results otherwise are scant but mostly showing modest growth in earnings.
Next week the Governor will stride up to the podium and announce her committee’s decision about the repo interest rate. There is the usual range of expert opinion about what she will say but I am wondering if it will matter all that much for the share market in the medium term. A rate cut will of course see a Pamplona style bull run – short and noisy with a bit of blood and lots of shouting. But it is debatable whether letting the banks get short term funds at 6% rather than 6.5% will actually prompt people to spend more than they have been managing to do already. I get the sense that the nation feels relief and pride that the World Cup went off so well but will now sit and wait for summer and Christmas time before prising open their wallets. That was a long holiday we had. As my mother used to say: “Now is the time for old clothes and porridge”
The delight and astonishment at what we and our leaders managed to achieve has rightfully created a great sense of expectation that it should be possible to continue delivering and improving civic services. Already we have been warned not to expect such visible and swift policing and justice. Why ever not? Where are all those cops and magistrates going?
Now is the time to see the plans that we were promised for putting these stadiums to use. One suggestion in the local paper is that the Moses Basket would be a grand place to hold a wedding. Hmm. I wonder if they have floated the idea past President Zuma for his fifth wedding. He’s about the only fellow with sufficient family, friends and funds to fill the first fifty rows in the east stand. Some rugby team organizers are rumored to have been receiving tempting offers to try a different patch of grass. But then what happens to Newlands? Or Ellis Park. And where is Mbombela anyway? In the meantime there is deep sadness at the South African Football Association. Their best friend of the last few years has suddenly disappeared. He has left behind an in-tray of unanswered mail from SARS and his phone has been switched to voice mail. All they can now do is pass around the report card with “9 out of 10” scribbled across the bottom and dream of glories past.
The submarine and frigate have departed the waters opposite the stadium but today the sky is full of planes practicing for the Durban Air Show. It is rumoured we might get to see the Gripen trainers. That would be nice. They were almost as expensive for taxpayers as the SWC.
I think that part of the problem for the ‘bokke in Auckland was that it was so dark out on the pitch that they could see the opposition in All Black strip. Were they saving money on electricity? Anyway, the boys in green and gold certainly need to do a whole lot better this weekend to keep the nation’s lights on in the Tri-Nations.
James Greener
16th July 2010.
